Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 9.177
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 13.3397th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 5.4%69th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.4408 (80th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.76, signalling more aggressive accounting relative to most local peers and a notable upward trajectory; the absolute US-calibrated cutoff of -1.78 is crossed by many Vietnamese firms so peer percentile and trend are more relevant. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall score of 82.7/100 with perfect accruals, cash-conversion and receivables sub-scores (100/100 each) but a Revenue quality of 0.0/100. The Altman Z-Score is 1.67 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9 (strong fundamentals). Statutory loss tests under Vietnamese rules are not met for FY2025.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.4408 (80th percentile vs VN peers): measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation; 80th percentile indicates more aggressive accounting than ~80% of Vietnamese peers and the M-Score rose by +1.76 year-over-year, indicating an accounting trajectory away from prior years.
- Earnings-quality Revenue quality = 0.0/100: measures the quality and sustainability of reported revenue; a 0/100 score is an outlier against otherwise high quality sub-scores and warrants scrutiny of revenue recognition patterns and disclosures.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.67 (distress zone): measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and earnings items; 1.67 falls into the distress zone rather than the safe zone.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 13.33 (97th percentile): measures how well reported profits convert into cash over three years; this low ratio (high percentile means poor relative performance) indicates profits have not been turning into cash compared with peers.
- AQI (Accounts quality index) = 6.8122: measures changes in receivables, inventory and other asset components relative to sales; a high AQI can signal aggressive asset recognition or slower collection patterns.
- Earnings Quality total = 82.7/100 with Accruals quality = 100.0/100: accrual-based distortions appear low according to the accruals sub-score.
- Cash conversion sub-score = 100.0/100 despite the low 3-year ratio noted above: the earnings-quality framework’s cash-conversion metric itself rates the company highly on the internal measures used.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 5.4% of total assets (69th percentile): receivables appear largely within normal parameters for Vietnamese peers, with only moderate exposure to prepayments/loans outside the trade cycle.
- Piotroski F-Score = 7/9: measures financial-strength signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a 7 indicates generally strong fundamentals.
Ownership is concentrated in individuals: the largest shareholder holds 19.1% (Trần Đình Huy) and the top five individual holders together control a majority stake concentration pattern (other notable holdings 8.8%, 5.7%, 4.8%, 4.5%). Director-deal registrations in 2025–10–30 to 2026–10–30 show 1 sale registration and 1 purchase registration (registrations, not executed trades).
- Compare FY2025 revenue recognition notes to the disclosure lines supporting Revenue quality = 0.0/100; examine contracts, timing of revenue, and percent-of-completion or delivery criteria.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and net profit for the last three years in the cash-flow statement and the management discussion to explain the 3-year cash-conversion ratio of 13.33.
- Inspect the notes/schedule for receivables and other long-term receivables to verify the 5.4% of total assets described as receivables outside the trade cycle (look for related-party loans, prepayments to suppliers, and long-term receivables).
- Review the statutory and auditor notes for FY2025 to confirm that none of the statutory loss-test triggers (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e), as amended by Decree 245/2025) are met and to trace any auditor emphasis or subsequent-event disclosures.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.37
- P/S
- 0.18
- ROE
- 13.8%
- ROA
- 3.1%
- EPS
- 2.459
- BVPS
- 18.151
- Gross Margin
- 17.4%
- Net Margin
- 6.5%
- D/E
- 2.41
- Current Ratio
- 2.76
- Rev Growth
- +16.6%
- Profit Growth
- +22.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 11.01
- Div Yield
- 22.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 7.9M
- Charter Capital
- 79.3B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT