Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 3.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 3.666
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 28 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 6.2693rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.3%17th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows a high Beneish M-Score of 2.1288 (98th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +4.01, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than almost all domestic peers though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly applicable to Vietnam. Mixed signals: strong operational fundamentals by Piotroski (7/9) and accruals/receivables quality, but very weak earnings-quality subcomponents for margin and revenue quality and poor cash conversion (3-year OCF/net profit = 6.26). The Altman Z-Score is 2.02 (grey zone), suggesting moderate distance from bankruptcy thresholds.
- Beneish M-Score = 2.1288 (98th percentile vs Vietnam). The M-Score measures a composite of eight accounting ratios intended to flag earnings manipulation; this company ranks higher (more aggressive) than 98% of Vietnamese peers.
- M-Score year-over-year change = +4.01. This large upward move in the score indicates the accounting profile has recently shifted toward more aggressive signals compared with the prior year.
- Earnings-quality Cash Conversion = 20.0/100 and three-year operating cash flow / net profit = 6.26 (93rd percentile). These measure how much reported profit converts into cash — the company’s profits have converted poorly to cash over three years.
- Earnings-quality Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100. These component scores indicate very weak stability/quality in margins and revenue recognition measures used in the scoring model.
- Altman Z-Score = 2.02 (grey zone). The Z-Score estimates distance from bankruptcy thresholds; 2.02 sits in the middle (neither clearly safe nor distressed).
- Accruals quality = 97.8/100. This measures the extent to which earnings are explained by accrual components; a high score implies reported earnings are not driven by aggressive accruals.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.3% of total assets (17th percentile). These measure the size and quality of receivables and related non-trade receivables; the company has very low non-trade receivables relative to assets.
- Piotroski F-Score = 7/9. This score summarizes nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a 7 indicates generally strong fundamentals under that framework.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0056 and DEPI = 1.0000. Low TATA suggests accruals are not large relative to assets; DEPI at 1.0000 (depreciation index) indicates no obvious change in depreciation policy driving earnings.
Ownership is concentrated: two institutions hold 66.6% combined (41.6% and 25.0%). Three individuals hold small stakes (3.7%, 3.0%, 1.2%). The large institutional blockholders imply control is concentrated within the listed group; no director-deal registrations were provided in the data.
- Compare the FY2025 statement of cash flows (operating cash flows) to the consolidated income statement to reconcile why three-year OCF/net profit = 6.26; check the notes to cash flows for one-off items and changes in working capital.
- Inspect the trade receivables and related-party receivables schedule in the notes to confirm the 0.3% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and to identify counterparty names and maturities.
- Review the revenue recognition note and segment disclosures to understand drivers of the Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100 scores (e.g., large one-off revenues, changes in sales mix, or unusual rebates/returns).
- Examine the long-term liabilities and equity notes for any off-balance-sheet arrangements, group guarantees or intra-group balances given the concentrated institutional ownership and group structure.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.25
- P/S
- 0.11
- ROE
- 1.1%
- ROA
- 0.6%
- EPS
- 134
- BVPS
- 11.949
- Gross Margin
- 0.7%
- Net Margin
- 0.5%
- D/E
- 0.34
- Current Ratio
- 1.12
- Rev Growth
- +85.6%
- Profit Growth
- +32.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.83
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 15.6M
- Charter Capital
- 156B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT