Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 8.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 10.857
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 50.2%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.0347th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 12.7%85th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows mixed signals: the Beneish M-Score is -1.6516 (76th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.65, indicating accounting measures have become more aggressive relative to Vietnamese peers. Specific operational signals include a very high DSRI (2.5704, measuring days-sales receivables growth), high SGAI (1.4220, measuring selling/general/admin expense growth), very weak receivables and revenue quality scores (0.0/100 each) and 12.7% of total assets classified as "receivables outside the trade cycle" (85th percentile), while accruals quality and cash-conversion measures score strongly (100/100 each) and the Altman Z-Score of 2.22 sits in the grey zone.
- Beneish DSRI = 2.5704 — this measures the growth in days sales in receivables (high values suggest receivables are rising faster than sales).
- Beneish SGAI = 1.4220 — this measures growth in selling, general and administrative expenses relative to sales (values >1 indicate SGA rising faster than sales).
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — these scores indicate very weak evidence that reported receivables and recognized revenue are high quality by the scoring model used.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 12.7% of total assets (85th percentile vs VN peers) — this line aggregates prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is relatively large compared with peers.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.6516 with VN percentile 76th and YoY change +0.65 — while the absolute -1.78 US cutoff is not directly applicable in Vietnam, the percentile and the positive YoY move indicate accounting measures are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and recently moved in that direction.
- Beneish GMI = 1.1554 and DEPI = 1.0413 — GMI >1 suggests gross margin deterioration year-over-year; DEPI >1 indicates a lengthening of average depreciation lives or slower depreciation relative to prior year, both of which can inflate current profits.
- Beneish AQI = 0.0873 (asset-quality index component) — this component measures changes in the proportion of non-current assets and asset capitalization; while interpretation depends on scale, it is one of the inputs associated with asset-side restructuring of numbers.
- Director-deal registrations: 7 sale registrations (5 traders; 1,657,500 shares; one registration without a volume) vs 2 purchase registrations (1 trader; volume not provided for two) — these are registered intentions to trade and may reflect insiders' intentions to sell more frequently than buy in the disclosed period.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 — the accruals-based assessment indicates reported earnings are supported by cash-based accounting relationships (the specific TATA component is -0.0446, a small negative total accruals to total assets measure).
- Cash conversion score = 100.0/100 and three-year cash-conversion ratio = 1.03 (operating cash flow / net profit; 47th percentile) — the company’s aggregate operating cash flow over three years roughly equals reported profit (1.03x), indicating profits are, on balance, converting into cash rather than being purely accrual-driven.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent net loss years = 0 up to FY2025 — the statutory and balance-sheet indicators show retained earnings and equity are positive in published statements.
- Altman Z-Score = 2.22 (grey zone) — this indicates the company is not in the low-risk 'safe' zone but also not in the high-risk distress zone by the Z-Score metric.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 — this is a neutral score on fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency).
Ownership is concentrated among individuals: Nguyễn Viết Cường 11.9%, Đồng Văn Quang 6.7%, Đặng Thanh Sơn 6.2%, Nguyễn Thị Thuyến 5.0% and Lê Văn Hoà 4.0% (top five = 33.8%). No state or corporate controlling shareholder is indicated in the provided list. Director-deal registration activity shows more registered sales than purchases among insiders/related persons in the last year (7 sales vs 2 purchases), noting these are registrations of intent disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the line items and notes for 'receivables' (trade receivables, prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) in the FY2025 balance sheet and related-party disclosures to quantify the 12.7% of total assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile revenue by segment and the revenue recognition policy note to the revenue roll-forward or customer-contract disclosures to verify why revenue quality scored 0 (e.g., concentration, timing, or unusual contract terms).
- Trace selling, general & administrative expenses in the income statement and the SGA note to explain SGAI = 1.4220 (identify one-off items, marketing or admin cost increases, and any capitalization policy changes).
- Compare the statement of cash flows (operating cash flow) to profit and the profit-to-cash reconciliation note for FY2023–FY2025 to verify the reported three-year cash conversion ratio = 1.03 and the accruals components underpinning the TATA = -0.0446.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.65
- P/S
- 0.24
- ROE
- 2.0%
- ROA
- 0.9%
- EPS
- 253
- BVPS
- 12.687
- Gross Margin
- 5.2%
- Net Margin
- 0.8%
- D/E
- 0.79
- Current Ratio
- 1.62
- Rev Growth
- −5.8%
- Profit Growth
- −7.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 11.82
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 12.0M
- Charter Capital
- 120B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT