Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 33.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 33.975
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 8 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −3.787th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 27.1%94th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.0033 with a Vietnam peer percentile of 88% (higher = more aggressive accounting versus Vietnamese peers) and a year-over-year change of -0.38, indicating a material move toward more aggressive signals relative to local peers. Earnings-quality indicators are weak: an overall score of 23.4/100 driven by extremely poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables quality (0.4/100), although the Altman Z-Score of 3.61 places it in the 'safe' bankruptcy-distance zone and the Piotroski F-Score is a neutral 4/9.
- Beneish M-Score -1.0033 (88th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly applicable—use the peer percentile and the YoY move of -0.38 as context).
- Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 1.2978 (measures growth in receivables relative to sales; >1 can indicate receivables are growing faster than sales).
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -3.78 (7th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; indicates profits are not converting into cash).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 27.1% of total assets (94th percentile; a large share of assets are prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables rather than trade receivables).
- Total Accruals (TATA) = 0.1950 (measures accruals relative to assets; higher values indicate lower accruals quality).
- Earnings Quality score 23.4/100 with accruals quality 34.7/100, cash conversion 0.0/100 and receivables quality 0.4/100 (these component scores point to weak earnings persistence and collectability concerns).
- Altman Z-Score = 3.61 (classifies the company in the 'safe' zone for bankruptcy distance, suggesting low immediate financial distress).
- Revenue quality = 61.8/100 and sales growth index (SGI) = 1.4850 (SGI >1 shows sales growth; revenue quality above 50% suggests some of the revenue appears supported by underlying drivers).
- AQI (asset quality index) = 0.6371 (measures rise in intangible and other non-current assets; <1 here reduces one common manipulation signal), and SGAI = 0.7925 (selling, general & administrative expense growth below revenue growth).
- No accumulated losses and zero consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive (these are favorable statutory and balance-sheet facts).
Ownership is moderately concentrated in institutions and individuals: two institutional shareholders hold 16.2% and 11.1%, while three named individuals together hold 17.9% (largest individual 8.5%). No state ownership is indicated; this mix suggests a group/insider presence but not a single dominant majority.
- Compare the 2025 breakdown of 'Receivables and other receivables' with the related-party note and the prepayments/disclosures to identify the composition of the 27.1% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile operating cash flows to reported net profit in the cash-flow statement and the notes to verify items driving the three-year cash conversion ratio of -3.78 (look for large non-cash gains, timing of receipts, or related-party cash movements).
- Inspect the schedule for loans to/from related parties, advances to suppliers and long-term receivables in the 2025 notes to check contributors to AQI and TATA (TATA = 0.1950).
- Review revenue recognition policies and the revenue note (including cutoff and contract terms) to assess components behind SGI = 1.4850 and revenue quality = 61.8/100.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 3.01
- P/S
- 0.99
- ROE
- 13.3%
- ROA
- 5.5%
- EPS
- 1.425
- BVPS
- 12.283
- Gross Margin
- 8.0%
- Net Margin
- 3.8%
- D/E
- 0.70
- Current Ratio
- 1.21
- Rev Growth
- +48.5%
- Profit Growth
- +91.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 22.54
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 59.4M
- Charter Capital
- 594B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT