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CTP

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn CTP Group

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngHNXCT
6.800
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+16.8%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
6.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.940

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.
  • A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
  • Historical growth has declined.
Model reliability
Medium
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
57.7%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+5.0percentage points
Consumer12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Consumer peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−9.5+5.5
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
11.10%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→22.69B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→6.800
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.940
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.10%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow22.7 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
9.1%8.6218.6218.6218.6218.621
10.1%8.3508.3508.3508.4868.486
11.1%8.3508.3508.3508.3508.350
12.1%7.9407.9407.9408.2358.350
13.1%7.9407.9407.9407.9407.940
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·15801931751641101171331341169332
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·470.30.40.50.60.50.259102
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·860159141133806310280633514
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·9230.090.32991240281811
Net Inventories
·31334343130523048434816
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·31334343130523048434816
Other current assets
·00.000.090.10.030.020.50.70.80.90.60.05
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·139750.010.013111417238313311
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·00000038582828297
Tangible fixed assets
·00000038582828297
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·1397500000107000
Investments in associate companies
·757500000110000
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·6400000007000
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·0000000−0.20000
Other non-current assets
·00.000.010.0133334334
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·00.000.010.0133334334
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·15415519317516722215820517214712642
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·574527177296033211317
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·574527177296033201217
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0000000.9232718107
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·00000000.320.30.007
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·00000000.040.10.60.50
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0000000000.60.50
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·14914914814815014914914513912611325
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·14914914814815014914914513912611325
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·12112112112112112112112110010010020
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·44444444310.50.2
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·23232323252424173423115
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·15415519317516722215820517214712642
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0370000003030
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·12112112112112112112112110010010020
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·000000022220

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
70
Good
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −2.81 · 22nd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +3.70
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.102
GMI
1.698
AQI
1.871
SGI
1.390
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.728
TATA
−0.147
LVGI
0.784

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
238.58100th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
5.5%70th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -2.8085 (22nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +3.70; components show particularly high GMI (1.6985) and AQI (1.8708) while TATA is -0.1470 and DSRI is 0.1015. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall score of 70/100 with perfect scores on accruals, cash conversion and receivables (100/100 each) but 0/100 on margin and revenue quality. The Altman Z-Score is 15.80 (safe zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score trajectory: M-Score -2.8085 with a year-over-year change of +3.70; the negative absolute score is below the US -1.78 threshold but the 22nd percentile among Vietnamese peers indicates relatively more aggressive accounting versus most domestic peers and the YoY increase signals a move in that direction.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.6985: measures whether gross margins are declining year-over-year (a GMI >1 suggests margins deteriorated); such a high value points to material margin pressure relative to the prior year.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.8708: measures increases in asset components that can be associated with earnings manipulation (e.g., capitalized costs, intangible/intensive assets); AQI >1.0 at 1.8708 indicates material increases in non-current/less-liquid assets relative to sales.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.3897: measures the company’s sales growth; SGI >1 indicates sales grew (at ~38.97% year-over-year), which can increase pressure to sustain growth numbers.
  • Margin and revenue quality = 0/100 each: these components indicate weak underlying margin sustainability and revenue quality despite strong cash and accrual metrics.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 5.5% of total assets (70th percentile): non-trade receivables/prepayments/loans are a material 5.5% of assets, which is elevated versus many peers and merits scrutiny of composition and collectibility.
  • Director-deal registrations: seven sale registrations (four traders; 5,068,000 shares; two registrations without a volume) and four purchase registrations (two traders; 1,500,000 shares; two registrations without a volume) filed between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades, but the registered sell volume exceeds the registered buy volume.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100/100 and TATA = -0.1470: total accruals to total assets (TATA) is negative, and accruals-quality scoring is perfect, indicating reported profit is not driven by large positive accruals in the period and accruals behavior looks clean by the score’s criteria.
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 238.58 (100th percentile): this metric measures how much reported profit is converted into operating cash flows over three years. A value of 238.58 and ranking at the 100th percentile versus Vietnamese peers indicates very strong cash conversion relative to peers.
  • Receivables quality = 100/100 and DSRI = 0.1015: DSRI (Days' Sales Receivable Index) at 0.1015 measures changes in receivables relative to sales; the low DSRI and perfect receivables-quality score suggest receivables are not expanding relative to revenue and the company’s trade receivables behavior is strong by those measures.
  • Altman Z-Score = 15.80 (safe zone): measures bankruptcy distance; 15.80 places the company well within a low short-term bankruptcy-risk zone by the Altman model.
  • No accumulated losses / owner’s equity positive / 0 consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025: the balance-sheet and statutory-loss indicators are healthy — undistributed earnings are not negative and equity (excluding minority interest) is positive.
  • Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e), as amended) — none met: the audited statements do not meet the exchange’s statutory loss criteria for delisting under the cited decree.
Ownership Risk

Top ownership is somewhat concentrated: an institutional shareholder (Công ty Cổ Phần Quốc Tế Justwin) holds 12.4%, and four individuals hold between 4.9% and 8.1% (Lê Trọng Tuấn 8.1%, Đào Đức Diễn 5.1%, Đinh Văn Anh Tuấn 5.0%, Thái Trần Như Uyên 4.9%). Director-deal registrations show more registered sells (by count and registered volume) than buys in the last 12 months, but these are registered intentions disclosed to the exchange and not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the three-year operating cash flow / net profit reconciliation in the cash-flow note to the headline 238.58 figure — verify the line items that drive operating cash flow (changes in working capital, depreciation, provisions).
  • Inspect the receivables, prepayments and other receivables schedules (notes on trade receivables, loans to related parties, long-term receivables) and reconcile the 5.5% of total assets classified as "receivables outside the trade cycle."
  • Review the fixed-asset and intangible-asset movement table and the notes supporting capitalized costs to understand the components behind AQI = 1.8708 (asset quality changes).
  • Compare the turnover of gross margin and cost-of-sales detail in the profit-and-loss note to the GMI = 1.6985 to identify drivers of the gross-margin deterioration (price, mix, cost inflation, exceptional items).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
15.80
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.01
Positive
Composite
41
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.33×Interest Burden0.27×Op. Margin0.02×Turnover0.34×Leverage1.04=ROE0.0%
Price Risk
Momentum
−12.2%
Volatility
56.5%
Max Drawdown
−59.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
1426.06P/E
P/B
0.68
P/S
1.94
ROE
0.0%
ROA
0.0%
EPS
6
BVPS
12.280
Gross Margin
1.2%
Net Margin
0.1%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
2.81
Rev Growth
+39.0%
Profit Growth
−88.8%
EV/EBITDA
1297.27
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
14.5M
Charter Capital
145B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Đồ uống & giải khát
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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