Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.940
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
- A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
- Historical growth has declined.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Medium
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 57.7%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Consumer peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 238.58100th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 5.5%70th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -2.8085 (22nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +3.70; components show particularly high GMI (1.6985) and AQI (1.8708) while TATA is -0.1470 and DSRI is 0.1015. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall score of 70/100 with perfect scores on accruals, cash conversion and receivables (100/100 each) but 0/100 on margin and revenue quality. The Altman Z-Score is 15.80 (safe zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score trajectory: M-Score -2.8085 with a year-over-year change of +3.70; the negative absolute score is below the US -1.78 threshold but the 22nd percentile among Vietnamese peers indicates relatively more aggressive accounting versus most domestic peers and the YoY increase signals a move in that direction.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.6985: measures whether gross margins are declining year-over-year (a GMI >1 suggests margins deteriorated); such a high value points to material margin pressure relative to the prior year.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.8708: measures increases in asset components that can be associated with earnings manipulation (e.g., capitalized costs, intangible/intensive assets); AQI >1.0 at 1.8708 indicates material increases in non-current/less-liquid assets relative to sales.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.3897: measures the company’s sales growth; SGI >1 indicates sales grew (at ~38.97% year-over-year), which can increase pressure to sustain growth numbers.
- Margin and revenue quality = 0/100 each: these components indicate weak underlying margin sustainability and revenue quality despite strong cash and accrual metrics.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 5.5% of total assets (70th percentile): non-trade receivables/prepayments/loans are a material 5.5% of assets, which is elevated versus many peers and merits scrutiny of composition and collectibility.
- Director-deal registrations: seven sale registrations (four traders; 5,068,000 shares; two registrations without a volume) and four purchase registrations (two traders; 1,500,000 shares; two registrations without a volume) filed between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades, but the registered sell volume exceeds the registered buy volume.
- Accruals quality = 100/100 and TATA = -0.1470: total accruals to total assets (TATA) is negative, and accruals-quality scoring is perfect, indicating reported profit is not driven by large positive accruals in the period and accruals behavior looks clean by the score’s criteria.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 238.58 (100th percentile): this metric measures how much reported profit is converted into operating cash flows over three years. A value of 238.58 and ranking at the 100th percentile versus Vietnamese peers indicates very strong cash conversion relative to peers.
- Receivables quality = 100/100 and DSRI = 0.1015: DSRI (Days' Sales Receivable Index) at 0.1015 measures changes in receivables relative to sales; the low DSRI and perfect receivables-quality score suggest receivables are not expanding relative to revenue and the company’s trade receivables behavior is strong by those measures.
- Altman Z-Score = 15.80 (safe zone): measures bankruptcy distance; 15.80 places the company well within a low short-term bankruptcy-risk zone by the Altman model.
- No accumulated losses / owner’s equity positive / 0 consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025: the balance-sheet and statutory-loss indicators are healthy — undistributed earnings are not negative and equity (excluding minority interest) is positive.
- Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e), as amended) — none met: the audited statements do not meet the exchange’s statutory loss criteria for delisting under the cited decree.
Top ownership is somewhat concentrated: an institutional shareholder (Công ty Cổ Phần Quốc Tế Justwin) holds 12.4%, and four individuals hold between 4.9% and 8.1% (Lê Trọng Tuấn 8.1%, Đào Đức Diễn 5.1%, Đinh Văn Anh Tuấn 5.0%, Thái Trần Như Uyên 4.9%). Director-deal registrations show more registered sells (by count and registered volume) than buys in the last 12 months, but these are registered intentions disclosed to the exchange and not executed trades.
- Compare the three-year operating cash flow / net profit reconciliation in the cash-flow note to the headline 238.58 figure — verify the line items that drive operating cash flow (changes in working capital, depreciation, provisions).
- Inspect the receivables, prepayments and other receivables schedules (notes on trade receivables, loans to related parties, long-term receivables) and reconcile the 5.5% of total assets classified as "receivables outside the trade cycle."
- Review the fixed-asset and intangible-asset movement table and the notes supporting capitalized costs to understand the components behind AQI = 1.8708 (asset quality changes).
- Compare the turnover of gross margin and cost-of-sales detail in the profit-and-loss note to the GMI = 1.6985 to identify drivers of the gross-margin deterioration (price, mix, cost inflation, exceptional items).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.68
- P/S
- 1.94
- ROE
- 0.0%
- ROA
- 0.0%
- EPS
- 6
- BVPS
- 12.280
- Gross Margin
- 1.2%
- Net Margin
- 0.1%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 2.81
- Rev Growth
- +39.0%
- Profit Growth
- −88.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 1297.27
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 14.5M
- Charter Capital
- 145B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bia và đồ uống
- Sub-industry
- Đồ uống & giải khát
- Company Type
- CT