Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 16.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 17.322
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.0322nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.9%34th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.0785, which is well above the US -1.78 cutoff but ranks at the 93rd percentile versus Vietnamese peers and has moved +2.00 year-over-year; this indicates accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and an upward trajectory in the manipulation-related indicators. Specific Beneish components driving the M-Score include a high DSRI of 2.2438 (possible sales/receivable seasoning or recognition divergence), elevated SGAI of 1.1877 (selling/general admin growth) and LVGI of 1.2075 (leverage growth), while TATA is low at 0.3285 (suggesting low total accruals). Complementary scores show very weak earnings quality (7.9/100) with particularly poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables/revenue quality (0.0/100), a low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 (weak fundamentals), but an Altman Z-Score of 3.21 placing the company in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance. The published statutory loss tests report none triggered for delisting under Decree 155/2020 as amended.
- Beneish M-Score -0.0785 (93rd percentile vs VN peers; YoY change +2.00) — measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation; high percentile and positive YoY indicate movement relative to peers.
- DSRI 2.2438 — measures Days-Sales-Receivable growth relative to sales growth; a value above 1 suggests receivables (or recorded sales) are growing faster than sales, a common early signal of revenue recognition pressure.
- SGAI 1.1877 — measures growth in selling, general & admin expenses relative to sales; above 1 indicates S,G&A are growing faster than sales, which can signal expense capitalization or aggressive overhead allocation.
- LVGI 1.2075 — measures leverage (debt) growth; above 1 shows rising leverage which can pressure earnings management choices.
- Earnings-quality components: Accruals quality 9.5/100, Cash conversion 0.0/100, Receivables quality 0.0/100, Revenue quality 0.0/100 — these low scores measure respectively the reliability of accruals, the conversion of reported profit into cash, the composition/aging of receivables, and the persistence/quality of reported revenue.
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9 — measures nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a 3 indicates weak fundamental checks across those dimensions.
- TATA 0.3285 — total accruals to total assets is relatively low (measures accrual intensity); a low TATA can indicate earnings are less driven by accruals.
- DEPI 1.0000 — depreciation index approximately 1 (measures changes in depreciation policies/estimates); a value near 1 suggests no large change in depreciation practices between periods.
- AQI 0.8450 and Margin quality 50.0/100 — accruals quality and margin measures show at least some stability versus the weakest possible scores (AQI <1 can be mixed depending on direction), and a 50/100 margin quality indicates middling stability of reported margins.
- Altman Z-Score 3.21 — measures bankruptcy risk/distance to default; a score in the safe zone indicates the company is not close to insolvency under the Altman model.
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (without minority interest) positive — the financial statements show retained earnings are not negative and equity is positive.
Ownership is fairly concentrated: an institutional holder Công ty TNHH Thương Mại-dịch Vụ Thanh Sơn Hóa Nông holds 20.3%, and two individuals hold 13.4% and 8.4% respectively. Concentrated ownership and presence of large individual shareholders can correlate with related-party transactions or group-level flows in the Vietnamese context; director-deal registrations were not provided in the data.
- Compare the growth in trade and non-trade receivables in the notes to receivables with the revenue breakout to assess what drives DSRI = 2.2438 (check bad-debt provisioning and ageing schedules).
- Reconcile operating cash flow and net profit across the cash-flow statement and auditors' notes to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio of -0.03 (check exceptional items, working-capital movements, and related-party cash flows).
- Inspect the related-party transactions, loans and prepayments note for amounts classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' to confirm the 0.9% of total assets figure and their contractual terms.
- Review the auditors' report and equity/retained-earnings schedule to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that the statutory loss tests show none of the Decree 155/2020 (Art.120(1)(e) as amended) criteria are met.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.78
- P/S
- 0.39
- ROE
- 10.5%
- ROA
- 7.0%
- EPS
- 2.214
- BVPS
- 21.111
- Gross Margin
- 23.1%
- Net Margin
- 5.3%
- D/E
- 0.21
- Current Ratio
- 2.43
- Rev Growth
- −9.8%
- Profit Growth
- −10.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.15
- Div Yield
- 11.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 4.1M
- Charter Capital
- 40.8B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT