Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 4.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.431
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −1.3112th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 3.4%58th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows elevated accounting-aggressiveness signals versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -1.4337 (80th percentile vs VN peers) and a large year-over-year M-Score change of -1.66, with components such as a high GMI (1.5401) and SGAI (3.1735). At the same time, solvency distance is strong (Altman Z-Score 5.29) but operating cash conversion is weak (three-year cash conversion = -1.31, 12th percentile) and fundamentals are mixed (Piotroski F-Score 3/9).
- Beneish M-Score -1.4337 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns) — 80th percentile among Vietnamese peers, and a year-over-year change of -1.66 (shows a recent material move in the M-Score trajectory).
- Earnings-quality composite 32.1/100 (overall low score measuring how accounting and cash flows support reported earnings), with particularly poor accruals quality 3.4/100 and cash-conversion 0.0/100 (these measure the quality/stability of accruals and the ability to convert earnings into cash).
- Very low three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit = -1.31, 12th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials), indicating profits have not been converting into operating cash over the last three years.
- High SGAI component in Beneish (SGAI = 3.1735, measures unusual growth in selling/general/administrative expenses relative to sales), which can flag expense capitalization or irregular expense recognition.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.3746 (measures aggregate accruals relative to assets); elevated TATA can indicate heavy accruals in reported earnings.
- GMI = 1.5401 (Gross Margin Index >1 indicates deteriorating gross margins year-over-year) combined with DEPI = 1.1130 (Depreciation Index >1 suggests slower depreciation or longer useful lives), which can reflect margin pressure and potential changes in non-cash expense policies.
- Altman Z-Score 5.29 (measures bankruptcy distance; this value places the company in the 'safe' zone on the Altman scale).
- Receivables-quality 100.0/100 (measures the relationship between reported receivables and revenue; here it indicates receivables appear consistent with reported sales), and receivables outside the trade cycle only 3.4% of total assets (58th percentile vs VN peers), suggesting limited exposure to long-term receivables or related-party receivable items recorded as non-trade.
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive; statutory-loss triggers (Decree 155/2020 as amended) noted but the company is listed on UPCoM where the HOSE/HNX delisting rule does not apply.
- SGI = 0.2370 (Sales Growth Index <1 indicates sales are not accelerating materially, lowering one class of aggressive revenue-growth signal).
Ownership is highly concentrated: Công ty Cổ Phần Hồng Mã holds 88.1% (institutional majority). Several small individual shareholders collectively hold roughly 4.2% (largest individuals: Phạm Quốc Khánh 1.7%, Đỗ Thị Ngọc Bình 1.1%). No director-deal registrations were provided in the input (director-deal registrations are intentions registered with the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the company's consolidated cash-flow statement (operating cash flow, 3-year series) with consolidated net profit to reproduce the cash-conversion ratio of -1.31 and inspect the reconciliation lines (depreciation, changes in working capital, non-cash items).
- Review the notes on receivables, prepayments and loans receivable (trade receivables, other receivables, advances to suppliers, and related-party receivables) to verify the 3.4% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and to identify counterparty and ageing schedules.
- Inspect the schedule of changes in property, plant and equipment and the depreciation-policy note to assess the DEPI = 1.1130 signal (changes in depreciation rates, useful lives, or additions/disposals).
- Reconcile SG&A line items and the SG&A note against revenue to understand the SGAI = 3.1735 (check any capitalized expenses, one-off items, or related-party service fees disclosed).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.44
- P/S
- 5.56
- ROE
- 2.4%
- ROA
- 2.1%
- EPS
- 259
- BVPS
- 10.767
- Gross Margin
- 48.4%
- Net Margin
- 30.6%
- D/E
- 0.02
- Current Ratio
- 11.50
- Rev Growth
- −76.3%
- Profit Growth
- −87.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 41.37
- Div Yield
- 3.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 65.4M
- Charter Capital
- 654B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT