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Công ty Cổ phần Vật liệu xây dựng và Trang trí nội thất TP. Hồ Chí Minh

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuUPCOMCT
18.000
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+3.0%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
18.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
18.532

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→38.51B
Fair EV/EBITDA→7.3x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→18.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+3.0%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
18.532
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA38.5 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·373310312307259391304278289248203252266
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·56322322423637183125432019
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000000000037
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·315277287285216352265257252214154198236
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·20221511122327202925244958
Net Inventories
·2220.42223322302
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·2220.42223322302
Other current assets
·0.030.020.000.040.010.010.010.0527322
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000012
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·6432653537391201341311331238679
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.30.63110.81303738383600
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.60.60.600
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·15171820202221222425168074
Tangible fixed assets
·7911121315131516188117
Intagible fixed assets
·8888888888888
Investment in properties
·9101011344445533
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·2222332223322
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·3333333333334
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−0.4−1−1−10−0.2−0.6−0.5−0.500−0.9−2
Other non-current assets
·0.20.810.000.060.20.010.020.050.10.20.50
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.20.810.000.060.20.010.020.050.10.20.020
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·437342376343296430424413419381326339345
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·20110713810367197236218221185129160171
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1971041359964194233215218182126160171
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1586797813413317917218515099129132
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.90.60.40.50.610.40.520.10.21323
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·3334333333300
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·236235238240230233188195199196197179174
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·236235238240230233188195199196197179174
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·150150150150150150150150150150150150150
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·262524222120181614121199
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·74747881848945546039311310
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·437342376343296430424413419381326339345
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00050000000000
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00.3300.70.40.80.81.012200
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·150150150150150150150150150150150150150

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
44
Weak
Accrual Quality
66
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
50
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.37 · 82nd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.44
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.993
GMI
1.207
AQI
2.492
SGI
1.146
DEPI
1.037
SGAI
0.825
TATA
0.085
LVGI
1.486

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.0323rd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
4.6%65th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.3713 (82nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.44, signalling accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that have moved materially in the last year. Components behind that M-Score include a high Asset Quality Index (AQI = 2.4915), a Gross Margin Index >1 (GMI = 1.2067) and a low Sales Growth Index (SGI = 0.8250); measures of earnings quality are mixed (Altman Z = 4.10 in the safe zone, but Piotroski F = 3/9 and three-year cash conversion = 0.03).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.3713 (82nd Vietnam percentile): the score sits above the US -1.78 cutoff but the Vietnam peer percentile and the YoY change (+1.44) indicate relatively aggressive accounting trends versus local peers and a notable year-over-year shift.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.4915: this measures the proportion of non-current assets and other 'non-capitalised' items vs total assets; a high AQI often signals increasing capitalisation of costs, reclassification to long‑lived assets, or growth in atypical receivable/other non‑trade assets.
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 0.03 (23rd percentile among VN non-financials): profits are largely not converting to operating cash, which is a classic earnings-quality concern.
  • Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Cash conversion subscore = 0.0/100 in the Earnings Quality Score: these indicate weak cash-backed revenue and little conversion of reported profit into operating cash across the scoring model.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 3/9: the firm shows weak fundamental signals (profitability/efficiency/solvency improvements) by Piotroski's test.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.6% of total assets (65th percentile): non-trade receivables, prepayments and loans to others are material enough to be a focus (seen in the AQI uplift).
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.4860: measures an increase in leverage versus prior year, which can amplify accounting and cash-flow risks if earnings or cash generation weaken.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 4.10: places the company in the 'safe' zone on the Altman bankruptcy-distance metric, indicating distance from the classical distress thresholds.
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100: the scoring component for receivables quality is strong, suggesting reported receivables show fewer immediate red flags on ageing/impairment within that subsystem.
  • DSRI = 0.9930 and SGAI = 0.8251: Days Sales Receivable Index ~1 implies no large relative increase in receivables days, and SGA expense index <1 implies selling, general & administrative expenses did not balloon year-over-year.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = 0.0850: total accruals are present but not exceptionally large compared with extreme accrual scenarios; this is consistent with an intermediate accruals-quality subscore (66/100).
  • No accumulated losses and parent profit not negative for any of the last three years: undistributed earnings are positive and the parent-level result does not show statutory loss periods in FY2025.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated among individuals: the largest shareholder holds 20.6% and the top five individual holders together control a sizeable block (20.6% + 8.3% + 5.9% + 4.6% + 3.6%). Director-deal registrations show both purchase and sale intent (10 purchase registrations totalling 1,681,000 shares and 6 sale registrations totalling 970,000 shares), with a net registered volume of +5.60% of shares outstanding—registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange and may repeat for the same trader.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the line-items and notes for 'other receivables', 'prepayments', and 'loans receivable' in the FY2025 audited balance sheet and the related-party disclosures to see what comprises the 4.6% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile the cash-flow statement (operating cash flow) with profit—trace material non‑cash adjustments and movements in working capital across the three-year period to understand the 0.03 three‑year cash-conversion ratio.
  • Review the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and depreciation policy note to check for changes supporting DEPI = 1.0369 and AQI = 2.4915 (reclassifications, additions, useful-life assumptions or capitalization policy shifts).
  • Examine the auditor’s report and any emphasis-of-matter or qualified paragraphs and the related-party transaction note for concentration of sales, loans to related parties, or guarantees that could explain the high AQI and low revenue-quality score.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
4.10
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.82
Negative
Composite
61
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.04×Turnover2.02×Leverage1.85=ROE13.2%
Price Risk
Momentum
−10.6%
Volatility
18.4%
Max Drawdown
−16.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.28P/E
P/B
0.96
P/S
0.26
ROE
13.3%
ROA
8.0%
EPS
2.784
BVPS
21.062
Gross Margin
9.5%
Net Margin
3.5%
D/E
0.67
Current Ratio
1.89
Rev Growth
+14.6%
Profit Growth
+4.2%
EV/EBITDA
8.99
Div Yield
4.9%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
12.7M
Charter Capital
127B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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