CMD
Công ty Cổ phần Vật liệu xây dựng và Trang trí nội thất TP. Hồ Chí Minh
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 18.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 18.532
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.0323rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.6%65th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.3713 (82nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.44, signalling accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that have moved materially in the last year. Components behind that M-Score include a high Asset Quality Index (AQI = 2.4915), a Gross Margin Index >1 (GMI = 1.2067) and a low Sales Growth Index (SGI = 0.8250); measures of earnings quality are mixed (Altman Z = 4.10 in the safe zone, but Piotroski F = 3/9 and three-year cash conversion = 0.03).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.3713 (82nd Vietnam percentile): the score sits above the US -1.78 cutoff but the Vietnam peer percentile and the YoY change (+1.44) indicate relatively aggressive accounting trends versus local peers and a notable year-over-year shift.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.4915: this measures the proportion of non-current assets and other 'non-capitalised' items vs total assets; a high AQI often signals increasing capitalisation of costs, reclassification to long‑lived assets, or growth in atypical receivable/other non‑trade assets.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 0.03 (23rd percentile among VN non-financials): profits are largely not converting to operating cash, which is a classic earnings-quality concern.
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Cash conversion subscore = 0.0/100 in the Earnings Quality Score: these indicate weak cash-backed revenue and little conversion of reported profit into operating cash across the scoring model.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9: the firm shows weak fundamental signals (profitability/efficiency/solvency improvements) by Piotroski's test.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.6% of total assets (65th percentile): non-trade receivables, prepayments and loans to others are material enough to be a focus (seen in the AQI uplift).
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.4860: measures an increase in leverage versus prior year, which can amplify accounting and cash-flow risks if earnings or cash generation weaken.
- Altman Z-Score = 4.10: places the company in the 'safe' zone on the Altman bankruptcy-distance metric, indicating distance from the classical distress thresholds.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100: the scoring component for receivables quality is strong, suggesting reported receivables show fewer immediate red flags on ageing/impairment within that subsystem.
- DSRI = 0.9930 and SGAI = 0.8251: Days Sales Receivable Index ~1 implies no large relative increase in receivables days, and SGA expense index <1 implies selling, general & administrative expenses did not balloon year-over-year.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = 0.0850: total accruals are present but not exceptionally large compared with extreme accrual scenarios; this is consistent with an intermediate accruals-quality subscore (66/100).
- No accumulated losses and parent profit not negative for any of the last three years: undistributed earnings are positive and the parent-level result does not show statutory loss periods in FY2025.
Ownership is concentrated among individuals: the largest shareholder holds 20.6% and the top five individual holders together control a sizeable block (20.6% + 8.3% + 5.9% + 4.6% + 3.6%). Director-deal registrations show both purchase and sale intent (10 purchase registrations totalling 1,681,000 shares and 6 sale registrations totalling 970,000 shares), with a net registered volume of +5.60% of shares outstanding—registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange and may repeat for the same trader.
- Compare the line-items and notes for 'other receivables', 'prepayments', and 'loans receivable' in the FY2025 audited balance sheet and the related-party disclosures to see what comprises the 4.6% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the cash-flow statement (operating cash flow) with profit—trace material non‑cash adjustments and movements in working capital across the three-year period to understand the 0.03 three‑year cash-conversion ratio.
- Review the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and depreciation policy note to check for changes supporting DEPI = 1.0369 and AQI = 2.4915 (reclassifications, additions, useful-life assumptions or capitalization policy shifts).
- Examine the auditor’s report and any emphasis-of-matter or qualified paragraphs and the related-party transaction note for concentration of sales, loans to related parties, or guarantees that could explain the high AQI and low revenue-quality score.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.96
- P/S
- 0.26
- ROE
- 13.3%
- ROA
- 8.0%
- EPS
- 2.784
- BVPS
- 21.062
- Gross Margin
- 9.5%
- Net Margin
- 3.5%
- D/E
- 0.67
- Current Ratio
- 1.89
- Rev Growth
- +14.6%
- Profit Growth
- +4.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 8.99
- Div Yield
- 4.9%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 12.7M
- Charter Capital
- 127B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT