Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.467
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 52.1%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −1.3212th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 49.4%99th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.26×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple accounting signals of elevated aggressiveness by Vietnamese standards: a Beneish M-Score of 1.6721 (97th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.88, high sales growth influence (SGI 4.8409) and positive discretionary accruals (TATA 0.1551). At the same time, operating liquidity is weak: a three‑year cash conversion of -1.32 (12th percentile) and an Altman Z-Score of 0.96 (distress zone) point to cash and solvency pressure, while the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = 1.6721 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios); company ranks in the 97th percentile among Vietnamese peers (high relative to VN sample) and M-Score rose by +2.88 year-over-year (a notable trajectory cue).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 4.8409 (measures sales growth; very large growth can strain controls and inflate M-Score contribution).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = 0.1551 (measures accruals as a share of assets; positive value indicates accrual-based earnings rather than cash).
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0822 (measures changes in depreciation policy/estimates; >1 suggests slowing depreciation expense or longer useful lives which can boost profit).
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = -1.32 (12th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; indicates profits have not translated into operating cash).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 49.4% of total assets (98th percentile; large balance of prepayments, loans receivable and other non-trade receivables).
- Altman Z-Score = 0.96 (distress zone; measures bankruptcy distance using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity ratios).
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (measures likelihood receivables are collectible; score indicates strong quality on that dimension).
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 0.7198 (measures receivables growth relative to sales; <1 implies receivables growing less than sales, which can be a positive on turnover).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.8009 (measures shift to non-current or other non-operating assets; <1 indicates no large switch into non-operating asset base).
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 0.2146 (measures change in SGA relative to sales; <1 implies SGA has not risen faster than sales).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle are explicitly quantified (49.4% of assets) rather than hidden; statutory loss tests: none met (the audited statements do not meet the listed-exchange statutory loss triggers under Decree 155/2020 as amended).
Ownership is concentrated in five individuals: top five shareholders hold 55.6% (15.0%, 11.0%, 11.0%, 10.8%, 7.8%), indicating concentrated insider control. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data (registrations would be intentions recorded with the exchange rather than executed trades).
- Compare the line items and notes for 'receivables', 'loans receivable' and 'prepayments to suppliers' in the FY2025 balance sheet and related-party disclosures to reconcile the 49.4% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the operating cash flow statement (cash from operations) with the income statement to verify the components producing the three‑year cash conversion of -1.32 (inspect reconciling items: changes in working capital, non-cash expenses, and one-off items).
- Review the fixed-asset reconciliation and depreciation policy note to assess the drivers behind DEPI = 1.0822 (check useful lives, change in depreciation methods, and additions/disposals schedules).
- Inspect the detailed accrual and reconciliation notes (including 'other receivables' and provisions) and the auditor’s report to validate TATA = 0.1551 and the 100/100 receivables-quality score (look for evidence of write-offs, provisioning policy, and subsequent collections).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.80
- P/S
- 0.68
- ROE
- 48.3%
- ROA
- 7.2%
- EPS
- 2.212
- BVPS
- 7.593
- Gross Margin
- 30.1%
- Net Margin
- 24.8%
- D/E
- 0.02
- Current Ratio
- 3.22
- Rev Growth
- +442.7%
- Profit Growth
- +151.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.38
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 51.0M
- Charter Capital
- 510B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT