Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 4.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 4.359
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
- Recent losses require review of cash-flow assumptions.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
- A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 25.8%94th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 1
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows several accounting signals that merit attention: a high Beneish M-Score of 2.3159 (98th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +3.21, driven by very large DSRI (10.0000) and SGAI (10.0000) components and an LVGI of 2.1454. At the same time, solvency and some accrual measures look stronger — Altman Z‑Score 3.72 (in the safe zone) and Accruals quality 100/100 — while the Piotroski F‑Score is weak at 3/9 and the Earnings‑Quality composite is low at 25/100, driven by zero scores on cash conversion, receivables, margin and revenue quality.
- Beneish M‑Score = 2.3159 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to eight accounting ratios); this score is at the 98th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers) and rose by +3.21 year‑over‑year.
- DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 10.0000 (measures growth in receivables relative to sales) — an extreme value indicating receivables grew much faster than revenue compared with the prior year.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative expenses Index) = 10.0000 (measures growth in SG&A relative to sales) — an extreme increase in SG&A relative to sales.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 2.1454 (measures change in leverage) — a large increase in leverage relative to the prior year.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 25.8% of total assets (94th percentile among VN non‑financials) — significant balance sheet exposure to prepayments, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables.
- Earnings‑Quality = 25.0/100 with Cash conversion = 0/100, Receivables quality = 0/100, Margin quality = 0/100, Revenue quality = 0/100 (these sub‑scores indicate weak cash conversion and revenue/receivables signals).
- Piotroski F‑Score = 3/9 (measures nine fundamental signals; a low score indicates weak operating/financial fundamentals).
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 (measures the quality of accruals; high score implies reported earnings are not driven by abnormal accruals).
- Altman Z‑Score = 3.72 (measures distance to bankruptcy based on profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity) — in the safe zone for bankruptcy risk.
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) are not met (these are factual statements from the published financials).
- Director‑deal registrations from 2025‑10‑30 to 2026‑10‑30 show 0 sale registrations and 1 purchase registration (registrations are intentions filed with the exchange, not executed trades).
Ownership is concentrated: an institutional holder holds 21.8% and three individuals hold 20.0%, 10.3% and 5.5% respectively, with another 4.9% — together these largest shareholders imply significant insider/group influence over decisions. The presence of a substantial institutional owner and several large individual shareholders increases the potential for related‑party or group transactions to be material to results.
- Compare the FY2025 notes that break down 'receivables and prepayments' to quantify how much of the 25.8% of total assets is prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable or long‑term receivables.
- Reconcile revenue growth vs. accounts receivable change in the revenue note or receivables schedule to assess the DSRI = 10.0000 driver.
- Inspect the SG&A note and the management discussion to explain the components behind the SGAI = 10.0000 increase (selling, general & administrative expense line items and any one‑off items).
- Check the related‑party and loans receivable disclosures (notes or schedules) for terms, counterparty identities and whether balances are within normal trade terms or are non‑trade exposures.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.40
- P/S
- 1248.97
- ROE
- −4.6%
- ROA
- −4.1%
- EPS
- −499
- BVPS
- 10.645
- Gross Margin
- 100.0%
- Net Margin
- −14485.2%
- D/E
- 0.05
- Current Ratio
- 2.52
- Rev Growth
- −100.0%
- Profit Growth
- −4518.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 6.0M
- Charter Capital
- 60.5B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng cá nhân
- Company Type
- CT