Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 22.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 21.865
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 47.9%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −26.452nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 17.8%89th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.1849 (86th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of -2.00, signalling an above-peer tendency on the Beneish measures rather than an absolute US-calibrated trigger. Earnings-quality metrics are weak (overall 25.4/100) driven by extremely poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and low margins; the Altman Z-Score is 1.47 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 2/9, both consistent with fragile fundamentals. Several Beneish subcomponents and the Vietnamese checks point to specific areas to inspect (rising receivables outside the trade cycle of 17.8% of total assets, DSRI = 1.1188, GMI = 1.4423, DEPI = 1.3649).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.1849; measures a composite of eight ratios designed to flag aggressive accounting. Although the US cutoff (-1.78) is not directly decisive in Vietnam, this company sits at the 86th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher percentile = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers) and its M-Score moved by -2.00 year-over-year (the YoY change indicates where accounting behaviour began to shift).
- DSRI = 1.1188; the Days Sales Receivable Index >1 measures faster growth in receivables than sales (possible revenue recognition or collection issues).
- GMI = 1.4423; the Gross Margin Index >1 measures deterioration in gross margins year-over-year (pressures on core profitability or margin management).
- DEPI = 1.3649; the Depreciation Index >1 indicates slower depreciation or a rise in gross PPE relative to depreciation (changes in depreciation policy or capitalisation can boost reported profits).
- TATA = 0.2182; Total Accruals to Assets = 0.2182 measures the extent of accruals in earnings—this is materially positive and signals earnings contain non-cash accrual components (higher positive TATA suggests earnings may be driven by accruals rather than cash).
- Earnings Quality Score = 25.4/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Accruals quality = 28.5/100; these figures measure how much reported profit converts to operating cash and the reliability of accruals, respectively, and indicate poor conversion of profit into cash and weak accrual reliability.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -26.45 (2nd percentile among VN non-financials); this measures a multi-year failure of reported profits to turn into operating cash (low percentile = worse than almost all peers).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 17.8% of total assets (89th percentile); this measures prepayments, loans receivable and other non-trade receivables and is high relative to peers (may reflect related-party lending, long-term receivables or large prepayments).
- Altman Z-Score = 1.47 (distress zone); this score measures proximity to bankruptcy using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity ratios and places the company in the distress zone.
- Piotroski F-Score = 2/9; this measures nine signals of financial strength (profitability, leverage/liquidity/operating efficiency). A score of 2 indicates weak fundamentals by that metric.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.3996; the Beneish AQI (ratio of non-current asset components) below 1 suggests no dramatic upward shift of non-current asset composition that Beneish uses to flag asset inflation.
- SGAI = 0.6276 and LVGI = 0.9585; SGA Index <1 measures a relative reduction in SG&A intensity year-over-year, and LVGI slightly <1 indicates leverage (book liabilities / assets) is roughly stable or modestly down—both temper some signs of aggressive expense management.
- Accumulated losses: none; undistributed earnings are not negative and owner's equity (net of minority interest) is positive—these are facts from the statements that reduce immediate statutory accounting insolvency concerns.
- Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended) = none met; the audited annual statements did not meet the exchange cancellation criteria listed in that decree for the reported year.
Top shareholders are several individuals with modest stakes: Phạm Bảo Tùng Ly 5.8%, Bùi Tuấn Khanh 4.8%, Trần Hữu Duyên 4.6%, Hồ Đình Thuần 4.0%, and Nguyễn Thị Trang 3.2%. Ownership appears dispersed among individuals with no single dominant listed controller; director-deal activity shows registrations (not executed trades): 6 sale registrations (5 traders; six without volumes) and 9 purchase registrations (8 traders; 1,453,018 shares registered; seven without volumes) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30—these are registered intentions filed with the exchange, not confirmations of executed transactions.
- Compare the 2025 line(s) for 'Prepayments to suppliers', 'Loans to related parties' and 'Other long-term receivables' in the balance sheet/schedules with the related-party note and reconciliations — (Receivables outside trade cycle = 17.8% of total assets).
- Reconcile 2023–2025 operating cash flows to reported net profit in the cash flow statement and management discussion to document why the 3-year cash conversion is -26.45 (operating cash flow / net profit).
- Read the revenue recognition note(s) and the schedule of trade receivables to check ageing and credit terms behind DSRI = 1.1188 and Revenue quality = 41.0/100.
- Review the fixed‑asset note and depreciation policy (useful lives, method, additions) to assess DEPI = 1.3649 (Depreciation Index) and any capitalisation policy changes.
- Inspect the audit report and any emphasis of matter / qualified opinion paragraphs and the related-party transactions note for significant balances or terms that could explain high receivables outside the trade cycle or abnormal accruals (TATA = 0.2182).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 4.17
- P/S
- 1.92
- ROE
- 3.4%
- ROA
- 0.6%
- EPS
- 290
- BVPS
- 10.809
- Gross Margin
- 4.0%
- Net Margin
- 1.3%
- D/E
- 1.86
- Current Ratio
- 2.32
- Rev Growth
- −11.8%
- Profit Growth
- −0.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- 122.50
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 106M
- Charter Capital
- 1,055B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT