Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 33.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 34.490
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −6.255th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 34.2%96th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows several accounting signals associated with aggressive recognition and weak cash conversion: a Beneish M-Score of -1.0702 (87th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a small year-over-year increase of +0.08, and an Earnings-Quality Score of 10.3/100. Operating cash flow lags reported profit (three-year cash conversion = -6.25, 4th percentile), and receivables/out-of-cycle assets are large at 34.2% of total assets (96th percentile).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.0702 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios); company is at the 87th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher percentile = more aggressive accounting relative to peers) and M-Score rose by +0.08 year-over-year.
- DSRI = 1.1872 (days-sales-receivables index; suggests rising receivables relative to sales).
- TATA = 0.2735 (total accruals to total assets; elevated accruals vs assets).
- Earnings-Quality Score = 10.3/100 (overall low score measuring multiple aspects of earnings quality).
- Cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -6.25 (measures extent profit converts to cash; negative and at the 4th percentile among VN non-financials).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 34.2% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable, other long-term receivables; at the 96th percentile among Vietnamese peers).
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Cash conversion subscore = 0.0/100 (indicate weak revenue persistence and cash-realisation metrics).
- Altman Z-Score = 1.67 (measures distance to bankruptcy; falls in the 'distress' zone).
- AQI = 0.5448 (asset quality index; lower values can indicate fewer write-offs or lower proportion of long-lived assets being reclassified, but needs context with large receivables-outside-cycle).
- DEPI = 0.9468 (depreciation index; below 1.0 can indicate depreciation expense rising relative to prior-year depreciable base—consistent with conservative fixed-asset write-down patterns rather than aggressive capitalization).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (neutral fundamentals; some internal performance/quality signals are mixed rather than uniformly poor).
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent net loss = 0 consecutive years up to FY2025 (statutory equity and retained earnings are not negative).
Ownership is moderately concentrated: the largest individual, Lê Bảo Anh, holds 19.8%, and three other insiders/institutional holders hold 10.5%, 10.3% and smaller stakes. Director-deal registrations in the past year show one purchase registration of 8,000,000 shares (+1.61% of shares outstanding) and zero sale registrations; these are registered intentions with the exchange, not confirmed executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) on trade receivables, loans receivable and prepayments to suppliers to reconcile the 34.2% of total assets reported as 'receivables outside the trade cycle.'
- Reconcile the cash-flow statement (operating cash flow) and income statement over the last three years to reproduce the -6.25 cash conversion ratio and identify major non-cash or timing items in operating cash flow.
- Inspect the related-party disclosures and the schedule of loans/advances to related parties to see if a material share of out-of-cycle receivables are intra-group or related-party balances.
- Review the fixed-asset and depreciation notes to confirm the components behind DEPI = 0.9468 and any recent changes in useful lives, revaluations or disposals.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 3.82
- P/S
- 1.43
- ROE
- 4.6%
- ROA
- 1.2%
- EPS
- 497
- BVPS
- 11.149
- Gross Margin
- 4.5%
- Net Margin
- 1.6%
- D/E
- 1.48
- Current Ratio
- 1.36
- Rev Growth
- +16.2%
- Profit Growth
- +2.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 82.93
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 498M
- Charter Capital
- 4,984B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT