Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 25.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 29.193
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 23 Oct 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.3559th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 3.6%60th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows a mix of signals: the Beneish M-Score is -0.7473 (89th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.95, driven in part by a very high DSRI of 3.1628 (days-sales receivables index). Earnings-quality components flag weak revenue and receivables quality (Revenue quality 0.0/100; Receivables quality 0.0/100) while accruals and cash-conversion measures are strong (Accruals quality 100.0/100; Cash conversion 100.0/100). Fundamental and solvency metrics are supportive: Altman Z-Score 4.76 and Piotroski F-Score 7/9, with no accumulated losses and positive owner’s equity (excluding minorities).
- High DSRI (3.1628): the days-sales-receivables index of 3.1628 is markedly elevated and is a primary contributor to the elevated M-Score; DSRI measures growth in receivables relative to sales and can indicate earlier revenue recognition or slower collections.
- Beneish peer percentile 89th and YoY increase +1.95: the M-Score of -0.7473 sits well above the US -1.78 threshold but, in the Vietnamese context, the company ranks at the 89th percentile versus local peers and its M-Score rose by +1.95 year-over-year — a trajectory signal to monitor (the 1980s US cutoff is not directly transferable; ~28% of Vietnamese firms exceed -1.78).
- Revenue quality 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100: the earnings-quality sub-scores report zero for both revenue and receivables quality, indicating revenue growth or composition and receivable collectability are weak by the scoring model used.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle 3.6% of total assets (60th percentile): 3.6% of total assets are classified as receivables outside the trade cycle (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables), which aligns with low receivables quality and the high DSRI.
- Cash conversion ratio (3-year operating cash flow / net profit = 1.35) at the 59th percentile: although cash conversion is scored 100/100 in the Earnings Quality score, the three-year ratio of 1.35 (59th percentile) is not in the top decile and indicates profit does not fully convert into cash as quickly as many peers.
- Altman Z-Score 4.76: the Z-Score is 4.76, placing the company in the ‘safe’ zone for bankruptcy-distance models and suggesting low financial-distress risk on that metric.
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9: a score of 7 indicates generally strong accounting fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency signals).
- Accruals quality 100.0/100 and Cash conversion 100.0/100 in the Earnings-Quality breakdown: the model rates accrual accounting quality and short-term cash generation highly (accruals-quality 100.0/100; cash-conversion 100.0/100), consistent with a small total-accruals TATA of -0.0485.
- No accumulated losses; owner’s equity positive (excluding minorities): the statements show undistributed earnings are not negative and owner’s equity without minority interest is positive.
- Director-deal registrations lean to purchase: one purchase registration of 77,900 shares and no sale registrations over 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30, representing net registered volume of +1.56% of shares outstanding (registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades).
Control is highly concentrated: individual Trương Văn Dũng holds 89.9% of shares, with the next largest holders at 0.8% and below. Such concentration implies group/insider control over corporate decisions and limits public float; the disclosed director-deal activity shows a single purchase registration equivalent to +1.56% of shares outstanding during the 12-month window.
- Compare the receivables and prepayments schedule in the notes to the balance sheet: quantify the components that make up the 3.6% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables).
- Reconcile revenue growth to the revenue-recognition note and the accounts-receivable ageing: check whether the large DSRI (3.1628) arises from expanding credit terms, one-off large invoices, related-party sales, or delayed write-offs.
- Verify related-party transaction disclosures and the schedule of loans/advances to/from related parties: assess whether material amounts are included in receivables outside the trade cycle and whether they are on market terms.
- Compare the consolidated profit to operating cash flow reconciliation (cash-flow statement and notes): trace the three-year cash-conversion ratio (1.35) components and any non-cash adjustments that drive the high accruals-quality score and the TATA of -0.0485.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.92
- P/S
- 2.51
- ROE
- 23.7%
- ROA
- 20.8%
- EPS
- 5.739
- BVPS
- 27.068
- Gross Margin
- 54.8%
- Net Margin
- 57.6%
- D/E
- 0.01
- Current Ratio
- 6.45
- Rev Growth
- −1.7%
- Profit Growth
- +93.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 1.99
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 5.0M
- Charter Capital
- 50.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng cá nhân
- Company Type
- CT