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Công ty Cổ phần Bông Việt Nam

VietnamConsumerHàng cá nhân & Gia dụngHàng cá nhânUPCOMCT
25.000
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
25.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
29.193

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The closing price is too old for comparison.
  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

Also note

  • Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
98.48%
+
Kd(1-t)
9.96%
x
D/(D+E)
1.52%
=
WACC
11.08%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.36%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→18.24B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→25.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
29.193
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.08%
Growth rate4.36%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow18.2 tỷone off strip ratio: 0.36

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.4%2.9%4.4%5.9%7.4%
9.1%30.69730.69730.69730.69730.697
10.1%29.19329.19329.19330.27430.697
11.1%29.19329.19329.19329.19329.193
12.1%29.19329.19329.19329.19329.193
13.1%28.67128.67128.67129.19329.193
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·733216232125132162150127158173146··
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·53230.4413142731191921··
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·5224300010.80.240.1210··
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·155101412982957755777875··
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·66111312586166688··
Net Inventories
·0.30.60.20.20.40.432484334584744··
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·0.30.60.20.20.40.438504536594845··
Other current assets
·0.070.020.669124544487··
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000033··
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·809193919610751545955566263··
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·34434645546331313634354649··
Tangible fixed assets
·32424444536224273231323639··
Intagible fixed assets
·2211117443344··
Investment in properties
·3220242730113444455··
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·666661088999106··
Investments in associate companies
·7777770000595··
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·222225889940.90.9··
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−3−3−3−3−3−100−0.30000··
Goodwill
·000000000000.50.6··
Other non-current assets
·20.80.81224334211··
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·20.70.81221112111··
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·153123108113117133184216209182214235209··
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·17171738638211313312392125142113··
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1110171836559611299649310774··
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·2233231676906543775152··
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.50.20.20.20.630.93211.024··
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·66020272716202428323540··
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·00020272716202428323540··
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·1351079275545071838690897274··
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1351079275545071838689897174··
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·50505050505050505050505050··
Other Reserves
·0000002555505··
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·5555555788854··
Other Reserves
·000000−0.2−0.09−0.09−0.09−0.2−0.2−0.1··
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·75463215−6−10−63354913··
Budget sources and other funds
·000000−0.70.100.60.710.6··
Budget sources and other funds
·0000000000.60.710.6··
Minority Interest
·000000000002021··
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·153123108113117133184216209182214235209··
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·50505050505050505050505050··
Good will (Bn. VND)
·00000032220.800··
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·000005161820222200··

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
55
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
35
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −0.75 · 89th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.95
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
3.163
GMI
1.058
AQI
0.783
SGI
0.983
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.987
TATA
−0.048
LVGI
0.878

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.3559th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
3.6%60th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows a mix of signals: the Beneish M-Score is -0.7473 (89th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.95, driven in part by a very high DSRI of 3.1628 (days-sales receivables index). Earnings-quality components flag weak revenue and receivables quality (Revenue quality 0.0/100; Receivables quality 0.0/100) while accruals and cash-conversion measures are strong (Accruals quality 100.0/100; Cash conversion 100.0/100). Fundamental and solvency metrics are supportive: Altman Z-Score 4.76 and Piotroski F-Score 7/9, with no accumulated losses and positive owner’s equity (excluding minorities).

Red Flags
  • High DSRI (3.1628): the days-sales-receivables index of 3.1628 is markedly elevated and is a primary contributor to the elevated M-Score; DSRI measures growth in receivables relative to sales and can indicate earlier revenue recognition or slower collections.
  • Beneish peer percentile 89th and YoY increase +1.95: the M-Score of -0.7473 sits well above the US -1.78 threshold but, in the Vietnamese context, the company ranks at the 89th percentile versus local peers and its M-Score rose by +1.95 year-over-year — a trajectory signal to monitor (the 1980s US cutoff is not directly transferable; ~28% of Vietnamese firms exceed -1.78).
  • Revenue quality 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100: the earnings-quality sub-scores report zero for both revenue and receivables quality, indicating revenue growth or composition and receivable collectability are weak by the scoring model used.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle 3.6% of total assets (60th percentile): 3.6% of total assets are classified as receivables outside the trade cycle (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables), which aligns with low receivables quality and the high DSRI.
  • Cash conversion ratio (3-year operating cash flow / net profit = 1.35) at the 59th percentile: although cash conversion is scored 100/100 in the Earnings Quality score, the three-year ratio of 1.35 (59th percentile) is not in the top decile and indicates profit does not fully convert into cash as quickly as many peers.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score 4.76: the Z-Score is 4.76, placing the company in the ‘safe’ zone for bankruptcy-distance models and suggesting low financial-distress risk on that metric.
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9: a score of 7 indicates generally strong accounting fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency signals).
  • Accruals quality 100.0/100 and Cash conversion 100.0/100 in the Earnings-Quality breakdown: the model rates accrual accounting quality and short-term cash generation highly (accruals-quality 100.0/100; cash-conversion 100.0/100), consistent with a small total-accruals TATA of -0.0485.
  • No accumulated losses; owner’s equity positive (excluding minorities): the statements show undistributed earnings are not negative and owner’s equity without minority interest is positive.
  • Director-deal registrations lean to purchase: one purchase registration of 77,900 shares and no sale registrations over 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30, representing net registered volume of +1.56% of shares outstanding (registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades).
Ownership Risk

Control is highly concentrated: individual Trương Văn Dũng holds 89.9% of shares, with the next largest holders at 0.8% and below. Such concentration implies group/insider control over corporate decisions and limits public float; the disclosed director-deal activity shows a single purchase registration equivalent to +1.56% of shares outstanding during the 12-month window.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the receivables and prepayments schedule in the notes to the balance sheet: quantify the components that make up the 3.6% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables).
  • Reconcile revenue growth to the revenue-recognition note and the accounts-receivable ageing: check whether the large DSRI (3.1628) arises from expanding credit terms, one-off large invoices, related-party sales, or delayed write-offs.
  • Verify related-party transaction disclosures and the schedule of loans/advances to/from related parties: assess whether material amounts are included in receivables outside the trade cycle and whether they are on market terms.
  • Compare the consolidated profit to operating cash flow reconciliation (cash-flow statement and notes): trace the three-year cash-conversion ratio (1.35) components and any non-cash adjustments that drive the high accruals-quality score and the TATA of -0.0485.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
4.76
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.37
Positive
Composite
58
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.81×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.71×Turnover0.33×Leverage1.13=ROE21.2%
Price Risk
Momentum
+37.6%
Volatility
142.3%
Max Drawdown
−38.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
4.36P/E
P/B
0.92
P/S
2.51
ROE
23.7%
ROA
20.8%
EPS
5.739
BVPS
27.068
Gross Margin
54.8%
Net Margin
57.6%
D/E
0.01
Current Ratio
6.45
Rev Growth
−1.7%
Profit Growth
+93.5%
EV/EBITDA
1.99
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
5.0M
Charter Capital
50.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng cá nhân
Sub-industry
Hàng cá nhân
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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