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BVG

Công ty Cổ phần Group Bắc Việt

VietnamCyclicalsTài nguyên Cơ bảnKim loạiUPCOMCT
2.800
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+8.5%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
2.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
3.039

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Tài nguyên Cơ bản” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→2.800
Calibrated value vs last close→+8.5%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
3.039
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDAyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·223710822·146158197195232250222
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.0640.080.20.3·164161655
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·2131400·0000000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·135822·8281128125100107110
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.020.020.0200·20.432250.8
Net Inventories
·00000·46716563115128103
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·00000·46716563115128103
Other current assets
·0.0000.0000.05·22312104
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·00000·0000052
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2518312924·1041379086182196205
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·00252321·0000000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·00000·85695853141169171
Tangible fixed assets
·00000·84685752136150158
Intagible fixed assets
·00000·0.9111545
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·2518553·12541010121419
Investments in associate companies
·00000·047005915
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·2518555·1271010744
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·0000−3·0000000
Goodwill
·00000·0000044
Other non-current assets
·0.030.010.010.010.03·56111213910
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.030.010.010.010.03·459910910
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·4855403746·250295287281414445426
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·0.2110.20.317·173225220215358380344
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0.2110.20.317·84124135130141180142
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00000.00·23314242697271
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·00000·22617186257
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·00000·891018586218199202
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00000·891018586185198201
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·4844403630·77706765566076
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·4844403630·77706765566076
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·9898989898·98989898989898
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0.20.20.20.20.2·0.2888877
Other Reserves
·0.20.20.20.20.2·0.20.20.20.20.20.20.2
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−50−53−58−62−68·−27−35−54−56−73−62−46
Minority Interest
·00000·0000066
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·4855403746·250295287281414445426
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000.97·0000000
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00252321·0000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·9898989898·98989898989898
Good will (Bn. VND)
·00000·0000300
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·00000·6−0.5−0.5−0.6700

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
24
Poor
Accrual Quality
13
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.01 · 88th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −0.41
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.494
GMI
1.000
AQI
1.629
SGI
1.000
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
1.264
TATA
0.301
LVGI
0.023

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.5732nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.0%5th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.51×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.009 (Vietnam peer percentile 88th), indicating its accounting behavior is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers; the M-Score moved by -0.41 year-over-year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (24.0/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and accruals quality (13.2/100), while receivables quality is strong (100.0/100). The Altman Z-Score is 75.45 (well into the ‘safe’ bankruptcy-distance zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is middling at 4/9.

Red Flags
  • High Vietnam peer percentile on Beneish M-Score: -1.009 at the 88th percentile versus Vietnamese peers — this measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to local peers (note: the US cutoff of -1.78 is not directly transferable; ~28% of Vietnamese firms cross it).
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.6294 — measures increases in asset components that can hide expenses (higher than 1 suggests rising capitalization of costs or reclassification of current items into long‑lived assets).
  • SGAI (Sales/General & Admin index) = 1.2639 — measures unusually large growth in SG&A relative to sales, which can signal capitalization or reclassification of expenses or cost shifting into non-operating lines.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.3009 — measures the extent of accruals in reported earnings; a positive, material TATA indicates earnings include non‑cash accrual components that may be unstable.
  • LVGI (Leverage index) = 0.0225 — while small, this contributes to the composite M-Score and reflects leverage movement that interacts with other accrual signals.
  • Poor multi-year cash conversion: operating cash flow / net profit over 3 years = 0.57 (32nd percentile among VN non-financials) — this measures the ability of reported profits to convert into cash and suggests profits are not fully cash-backed.
  • Earnings-quality sub-scores very weak: cash conversion 0.0/100, accruals quality 13.2/100, margin quality 0.0/100 and revenue quality 0.0/100 — these measure, respectively, cash backing of profits, reliability of accruals, stability of margins, and sustainability of reported revenue.
  • Accumulated losses relative to paid-in capital = 0.51x — this measures the historical deficit scale versus contributed capital and indicates a meaningful accumulated loss position (though owner’s equity excluding minority interest remains positive).
Positive Signals
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.0% of total assets (5th percentile) — this measures non-trade receivables such as long-term receivables, loans to related parties or large prepayments; a zero value is a favourable sign for receivables quality and is consistent with the receivables-quality score of 100/100.
  • DSRI (Days Sales Receivables Index) = 0.4940 — measures receivables growth relative to sales; a value below 1 indicates receivables are not growing faster than sales, which supports revenue quality.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.0000 and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.0000 — GMI at 1 suggests stable gross margins year-on-year and SGI at 1 indicates no revenue growth pressure that might have forced aggressive recognition; both moderate some manipulation risk components.
  • Altman Z-Score = 75.45 (safe zone) — this measures financial distress/bankruptcy distance; a very high score indicates low bankruptcy risk by the Altman model metrics.
Ownership Risk

Top shareholders are moderately concentrated: the largest holder is King Invest (institution) at 5.3%, with three individuals owning 5.0%, 4.6% and 1.7% respectively. No single dominant controlling shareholder is shown in the provided list; this ownership mix reduces single-owner control risks but does show meaningful insider exposure through several individuals.

To check in the filings
  • Compare FY2025 operating cash flow (cash flow statement) with reported net profit in the parent-company profit (separate parent-profit line or consolidated profit) to trace the 3-year cash-conversion trend (operating cash flow / net profit = 0.57).
  • Inspect the notes and schedules for receivables, prepayments and loans to related parties to verify the 0.0% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle and to identify any large off-cycle items.
  • Review the fixed‑asset and intangible‑asset schedules and the accounting policy note to understand why AQI = 1.6294 (look for reclassification, capitalization policies or one‑off asset additions in FY2025).
  • Reconcile total accruals to total assets: check the components behind TATA = 0.3009 by comparing profit reconciliation (net profit to cash flows) and detailed accrual movements in working‑capital notes.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
75.45
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.36
Positive
Composite
51
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden0.90×Op. Margin37.58×Turnover0.00×Leverage1.00=ROE6.8%
Price Risk
Momentum
+33.3%
Volatility
59.2%
Max Drawdown
−38.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.45P/E
P/B
0.57
P/S
284.40
ROE
7.0%
ROA
6.3%
EPS
331
BVPS
4.887
Gross Margin
0.0%
Net Margin
3365.1%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
108.27
Rev Growth
+0.0%
Profit Growth
−24.4%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
9.8M
Charter Capital
97.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Kim loại
Sub-industry
Thép và sản phẩm thép
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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