Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 2.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 3.039
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.5732nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.0%5th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.51×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.009 (Vietnam peer percentile 88th), indicating its accounting behavior is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers; the M-Score moved by -0.41 year-over-year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (24.0/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and accruals quality (13.2/100), while receivables quality is strong (100.0/100). The Altman Z-Score is 75.45 (well into the ‘safe’ bankruptcy-distance zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is middling at 4/9.
- High Vietnam peer percentile on Beneish M-Score: -1.009 at the 88th percentile versus Vietnamese peers — this measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to local peers (note: the US cutoff of -1.78 is not directly transferable; ~28% of Vietnamese firms cross it).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.6294 — measures increases in asset components that can hide expenses (higher than 1 suggests rising capitalization of costs or reclassification of current items into long‑lived assets).
- SGAI (Sales/General & Admin index) = 1.2639 — measures unusually large growth in SG&A relative to sales, which can signal capitalization or reclassification of expenses or cost shifting into non-operating lines.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.3009 — measures the extent of accruals in reported earnings; a positive, material TATA indicates earnings include non‑cash accrual components that may be unstable.
- LVGI (Leverage index) = 0.0225 — while small, this contributes to the composite M-Score and reflects leverage movement that interacts with other accrual signals.
- Poor multi-year cash conversion: operating cash flow / net profit over 3 years = 0.57 (32nd percentile among VN non-financials) — this measures the ability of reported profits to convert into cash and suggests profits are not fully cash-backed.
- Earnings-quality sub-scores very weak: cash conversion 0.0/100, accruals quality 13.2/100, margin quality 0.0/100 and revenue quality 0.0/100 — these measure, respectively, cash backing of profits, reliability of accruals, stability of margins, and sustainability of reported revenue.
- Accumulated losses relative to paid-in capital = 0.51x — this measures the historical deficit scale versus contributed capital and indicates a meaningful accumulated loss position (though owner’s equity excluding minority interest remains positive).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.0% of total assets (5th percentile) — this measures non-trade receivables such as long-term receivables, loans to related parties or large prepayments; a zero value is a favourable sign for receivables quality and is consistent with the receivables-quality score of 100/100.
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivables Index) = 0.4940 — measures receivables growth relative to sales; a value below 1 indicates receivables are not growing faster than sales, which supports revenue quality.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.0000 and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.0000 — GMI at 1 suggests stable gross margins year-on-year and SGI at 1 indicates no revenue growth pressure that might have forced aggressive recognition; both moderate some manipulation risk components.
- Altman Z-Score = 75.45 (safe zone) — this measures financial distress/bankruptcy distance; a very high score indicates low bankruptcy risk by the Altman model metrics.
Top shareholders are moderately concentrated: the largest holder is King Invest (institution) at 5.3%, with three individuals owning 5.0%, 4.6% and 1.7% respectively. No single dominant controlling shareholder is shown in the provided list; this ownership mix reduces single-owner control risks but does show meaningful insider exposure through several individuals.
- Compare FY2025 operating cash flow (cash flow statement) with reported net profit in the parent-company profit (separate parent-profit line or consolidated profit) to trace the 3-year cash-conversion trend (operating cash flow / net profit = 0.57).
- Inspect the notes and schedules for receivables, prepayments and loans to related parties to verify the 0.0% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle and to identify any large off-cycle items.
- Review the fixed‑asset and intangible‑asset schedules and the accounting policy note to understand why AQI = 1.6294 (look for reclassification, capitalization policies or one‑off asset additions in FY2025).
- Reconcile total accruals to total assets: check the components behind TATA = 0.3009 by comparing profit reconciliation (net profit to cash flows) and detailed accrual movements in working‑capital notes.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.57
- P/S
- 284.40
- ROE
- 7.0%
- ROA
- 6.3%
- EPS
- 331
- BVPS
- 4.887
- Gross Margin
- 0.0%
- Net Margin
- 3365.1%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 108.27
- Rev Growth
- +0.0%
- Profit Growth
- −24.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 9.8M
- Charter Capital
- 97.5B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Kim loại
- Sub-industry
- Thép và sản phẩm thép
- Company Type
- CT