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Công ty Cổ phần Bảo vệ thực vật 1 Trung ương

VietnamCyclicalsHóa chấtUPCOMCT
11.600
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+5.6%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
11.600
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
12.252

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hóa chất→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Hóa chất” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→19.97B
Fair EV/EBITDA→12.7x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→11.600
Calibrated value vs last close→+5.6%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
12.252
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA20.0 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·208207182187190155239254243229264309283
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·91864127772143373221
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00.90.90000000000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·3533175101516201812304923
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·1715210.8211.00.60.4585
Net Inventories
·158151153170160130210220198171190222223
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·160153153171161131210224206171190222223
Other current assets
·64577477636716
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000000211
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·82494953583537313030292724
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·27303134373334282727282321
Tangible fixed assets
·17202124272324252322242221
Intagible fixed assets
·1010101010101034540.80.8
Other non-current assets
·181818192022333242
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·181818192022333242
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·290256232240248190276285273259293336307
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·18615113114014486174185175163199242218
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·18615113014014486172183175162197240218
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1501101051031145010812710897142180155
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·45211136559422
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0.50.20.40.500120.40.7210
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.50.20.40.500120.40.7210
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·104104101991041041021009896949488
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·104104101991041041021009896949488
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·57575753535353535353535353
Other Reserves
·15151515151515151515151515
Foreign Currency Difference reserve
·0000000.03000000
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·1616151514131211109832
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·1113912171918171615141612
Budget sources and other funds
·00000.100000000
Budget sources and other funds
··0000.100000000
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·290256232240248190276285273259293336307
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·57575753535353535353535353
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
37
Weak
Accrual Quality
66
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
64
Margin Stability
9

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.36 · 82nd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.77
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.066
GMI
1.083
AQI
2.567
SGI
0.994
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.905
TATA
0.085
LVGI
1.085

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.1320th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
6.0%72nd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M‑Score is -1.3615 (82nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year increase of +0.77, indicating accounting metrics more aggressive than most local peers and a notable upward trajectory. Earnings quality is weak (37.1/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and low margin quality (9.1/100); the Altman Z‑Score is 1.52 (distress zone) and the Piotroski F‑Score is 2/9, both signalling weak financial health and fundamentals.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score = -1.3615; Vietnam peer percentile = 82nd. The M‑Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios; here the company scores higher (more aggressive) than 82% of Vietnamese peers, and the M‑Score rose by +0.77 year‑over‑year, showing a material move in the accounting profile.
  • AQI (asset quality index) = 2.5672. AQI measures increases in non‑current assets, reclassifications and writeoffs that can signal capitalisation or reclassification of expenses; a value well above 1 suggests substantial asset‑quality changes.
  • TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.0850. TATA measures the proportion of accruals to assets; a positive 8.5% indicates earnings include a meaningful accruals component rather than cash earnings.
  • Earnings Quality score = 37.1/100, with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 9.1/100. Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit over three years) of -0.13 (20th percentile) shows profits are not converting into cash; margin quality very low indicates margins are inconsistent with stable, repeatable earnings.
  • Altman Z‑Score = 1.52 (distress zone). The Altman Z‑Score estimates distance to bankruptcy; 1.52 falls in the distress zone used in the model.
  • Piotroski F‑Score = 2/9. The F‑Score evaluates nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 2 indicates weak fundamentals across these measures.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 6.0% of total assets (72nd percentile). This relates to prepayments, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables; a relatively high percentile suggests sizable non‑trade receivables compared with peers.
Positive Signals
  • SGI (sales growth index) = 0.9939 (≈1). SGI measures sales growth; a value near 1 indicates little or no aggressive sales growth that might indicate channel stuffing.
  • DEPI (depreciation index) = 1.0000. DEPI compares prior and current depreciation rates; 1.0000 suggests no change in depreciation policy that would inflate earnings.
  • LVGI (leverage index) = 1.0852. LVGI measures changes in leverage; while >1 shows higher leverage vs prior year, it is not extreme in isolation.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (parent, excluding minorities) is positive and the parent net profit shows 0 years of statutory net loss up to FY2025, which are factual balance‑sheet/statement positives.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated in individuals: Đặng Văn Thông holds 22.7%, Đặng Quỳnh Trang 10.6%, and the next three individuals hold 5.8%, 3.6% and 2.5% respectively. Director‑deal registrations recorded between 2025‑10‑30 and 2026‑10‑30 show 6 sale registrations (4 registrants; 1,543,545 shares) and 19 purchase registrations (16 registrants; 2,246,463 shares; 1 registration without a disclosed volume). These registrations are intentions filed with the exchange and not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the notes to the financial statements for FY2025 that disclose 'receivables and prepayments' to quantify the composition of the 6.0% of total assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile the three‑year cash flow statement and the operating cash flow note to verify the cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = -0.13) reported in the checks.
  • Inspect the fixed‑assets and depreciation policy note to confirm there were no changes in depreciation methods or useful lives consistent with DEPI = 1.0000.
  • Review the related‑party transactions note and the schedule of loans/advances to related parties to see whether part of the AQI = 2.5672 or the receivables‑outside‑trade figure arises from intra‑group prepayments or loans.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
1.52
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.03
Positive
Composite
25
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.06×Op. Margin0.02×Turnover1.10×Leverage2.79=ROE5.4%
Price Risk
Momentum
−13.4%
Volatility
121.4%
Max Drawdown
−30.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
20.56P/E
P/B
1.12
P/S
0.37
ROE
5.4%
ROA
2.1%
EPS
564
BVPS
10.375
Gross Margin
30.0%
Net Margin
1.8%
D/E
1.45
Current Ratio
1.12
EV/EBITDA
12.70
Div Yield
4.9%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
10.0M
Charter Capital
100B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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