Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 11.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 12.252
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 22 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.1320th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 6.0%72nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M‑Score is -1.3615 (82nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year increase of +0.77, indicating accounting metrics more aggressive than most local peers and a notable upward trajectory. Earnings quality is weak (37.1/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and low margin quality (9.1/100); the Altman Z‑Score is 1.52 (distress zone) and the Piotroski F‑Score is 2/9, both signalling weak financial health and fundamentals.
- Beneish M‑Score = -1.3615; Vietnam peer percentile = 82nd. The M‑Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios; here the company scores higher (more aggressive) than 82% of Vietnamese peers, and the M‑Score rose by +0.77 year‑over‑year, showing a material move in the accounting profile.
- AQI (asset quality index) = 2.5672. AQI measures increases in non‑current assets, reclassifications and writeoffs that can signal capitalisation or reclassification of expenses; a value well above 1 suggests substantial asset‑quality changes.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.0850. TATA measures the proportion of accruals to assets; a positive 8.5% indicates earnings include a meaningful accruals component rather than cash earnings.
- Earnings Quality score = 37.1/100, with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 9.1/100. Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit over three years) of -0.13 (20th percentile) shows profits are not converting into cash; margin quality very low indicates margins are inconsistent with stable, repeatable earnings.
- Altman Z‑Score = 1.52 (distress zone). The Altman Z‑Score estimates distance to bankruptcy; 1.52 falls in the distress zone used in the model.
- Piotroski F‑Score = 2/9. The F‑Score evaluates nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 2 indicates weak fundamentals across these measures.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 6.0% of total assets (72nd percentile). This relates to prepayments, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables; a relatively high percentile suggests sizable non‑trade receivables compared with peers.
- SGI (sales growth index) = 0.9939 (≈1). SGI measures sales growth; a value near 1 indicates little or no aggressive sales growth that might indicate channel stuffing.
- DEPI (depreciation index) = 1.0000. DEPI compares prior and current depreciation rates; 1.0000 suggests no change in depreciation policy that would inflate earnings.
- LVGI (leverage index) = 1.0852. LVGI measures changes in leverage; while >1 shows higher leverage vs prior year, it is not extreme in isolation.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (parent, excluding minorities) is positive and the parent net profit shows 0 years of statutory net loss up to FY2025, which are factual balance‑sheet/statement positives.
Ownership is concentrated in individuals: Đặng Văn Thông holds 22.7%, Đặng Quỳnh Trang 10.6%, and the next three individuals hold 5.8%, 3.6% and 2.5% respectively. Director‑deal registrations recorded between 2025‑10‑30 and 2026‑10‑30 show 6 sale registrations (4 registrants; 1,543,545 shares) and 19 purchase registrations (16 registrants; 2,246,463 shares; 1 registration without a disclosed volume). These registrations are intentions filed with the exchange and not executed trades.
- Compare the notes to the financial statements for FY2025 that disclose 'receivables and prepayments' to quantify the composition of the 6.0% of total assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the three‑year cash flow statement and the operating cash flow note to verify the cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = -0.13) reported in the checks.
- Inspect the fixed‑assets and depreciation policy note to confirm there were no changes in depreciation methods or useful lives consistent with DEPI = 1.0000.
- Review the related‑party transactions note and the schedule of loans/advances to related parties to see whether part of the AQI = 2.5672 or the receivables‑outside‑trade figure arises from intra‑group prepayments or loans.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.12
- P/S
- 0.37
- ROE
- 5.4%
- ROA
- 2.1%
- EPS
- 564
- BVPS
- 10.375
- Gross Margin
- 30.0%
- Net Margin
- 1.8%
- D/E
- 1.45
- Current Ratio
- 1.12
- EV/EBITDA
- 12.70
- Div Yield
- 4.9%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 10.0M
- Charter Capital
- 100B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT