Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 11.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 11.152
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 23 Nov 2024
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −3.547th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 28.5%94th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.6657 (90th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.64, signalling an accounting profile that is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially year-on-year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak (Overall 18.7/100) driven by near-zero cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit: -3.54) and high non-trade receivables (28.5% of total assets); the Altman Z-Score is 1.63 (distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is neutral at 5/9.
- Beneish M-Score -0.6657, Vietnam peer percentile 90th: the company scores higher (more aggressive accounting signals) than 90% of Vietnamese non-financial peers; the M-Score rose by +2.64 year-over-year (the trajectory moved substantially).
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 2.6104: this component of the M-Score indicates receivables or revenue recognition has expanded relative to sales compared with the prior period.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = 0.1525: accruals are large relative to assets, contributing to the M-Score and consistent with low accruals-quality (46.0/100).
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -3.54 (7th percentile vs VN peers): profits have not converted to cash over three years, which aligns with the Earnings Quality cash-conversion score of 0.0/100.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 28.5% of total assets (94th percentile vs VN peers): a large share of assets are prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables rather than trade receivables or cash.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.63 (distress zone): the distance-to-distress metric places the company in the lower safety zone for bankruptcy distance.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.8986 (<1): gross margins improved relative to the prior period, a signal that margins are not deteriorating.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0000: no apparent change in depreciation policy or life assumptions captured by this index.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0763 (moderately higher): leverage increased only modestly according to this M-Score component.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (neutral): fundamentals do not show severe operational deterioration; this is neither strongly positive nor strongly negative.
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive: the balance sheet shows positive equity and no historical accumulated loss on the face of the audited statements.
Ownership is highly concentrated: three individuals collectively hold 53.5% (Nguyễn Thị Thu Vân 24.1%, Trịnh Đình Trường 15.5%, Trịnh Quang Hưng 13.9%) while two institutional shareholders hold 46.9% (Legend Highland 24.0%, Năng Lượng Nghĩa Hưng 22.9%). The top five registered shareholders account for essentially the entire equity (sum ≈100%), which suggests tight control by a small group of individuals and related entities.
- Compare the line items in the audited balance sheet and the related-party note that support 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (loans receivable, long-term receivables, prepayments to suppliers) to confirm the 28.5% of total assets figure.
- Reconcile operating cash flow (CFO) in the cash-flow statement with parent-company net profit over the last three years to reproduce the cash-conversion ratio of -3.54 and identify the main drivers (changes in working capital, non-cash items, one-offs).
- Inspect the notes on revenue recognition and the trade receivables ageing schedule (or the note that disaggregates receivables) to check the composition behind DSRI = 2.6104 and whether revenues/receivables growth is tied to extended terms, related-party receivables, or new business lines.
- Review the auditor's report and the equity statement (and any statutory notes) to confirm there are no accumulated losses, the positive owner's equity figure, and to see any emphasis-of-matter or going-concern language given the Altman Z-Score of 1.63.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.02
- P/S
- 1.43
- ROE
- 1.3%
- ROA
- 0.7%
- EPS
- 138
- BVPS
- 10.796
- Gross Margin
- 19.2%
- Net Margin
- 1.8%
- D/E
- 0.58
- Current Ratio
- 1.82
- EV/EBITDA
- 28.99
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 8.9M
- Charter Capital
- 89.4B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bia và đồ uống
- Sub-industry
- Đồ uống & giải khát
- Company Type
- CT