Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 696
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 6.7394th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.6%45th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 2.75×Statutory test met
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 1
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- NegativeStatutory test met
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
BHC's accounting signals show elevated manipulation-style metrics by Vietnamese peers (Beneish M-Score 0.1737, 94th Vietnam percentile; year-over-year M-Score change +3.21) together with weak solvency and cash-generation metrics (Altman Z-Score -8.42; three-year cash-conversion ratio 6.73). Earnings-quality subcomponents are mixed: accruals quality is high (100/100) while receivables and margin quality score 0/100 and overall Earnings Quality is 41.2/100.
- Beneish M-Score 0.1737, 94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers and YoY change +3.21 — the score and its high peer percentile indicate accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnam-listed peers (note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly calibrated to Vietnam).
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 4.0747 — a large increase in receivables relative to sales, consistent with receivables growth or revenue recognition timing changes.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.6084 — falling gross margins versus the prior period, which can pressure incentive to manage earnings.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 1.3997 — rising SG&A relative to sales, which can indicate cost pressure or reclassification risk.
- Receivables quality 0/100 and receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.6% of total assets (45th percentile) — poor receivables quality score combined with non-trade receivables presence raises questions about collectability and classification.
- Cash conversion three-year ratio = 6.73 (94th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials) — operating cash flow is very small relative to net profit over three years, showing profits are not being converted into cash.
- Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is negative and accumulated losses = 2.75x paid-in capital — the financial statements show equity impairment and accumulated losses materially exceeding contributed capital.
- Altman Z-Score = -8.42 (distress zone) — indicates distance to bankruptcy on the Altman metric is very negative.
- Margin quality 0/100 — margins show deterioration or low quality, reinforcing earnings concerns.
- Accruals quality 100/100 — reported earnings appear to be driven by relatively low abnormal accruals by the accrual-quality metric.
- TATA (total accruals to assets) = -0.0383 — small negative total accruals indicating accruals are not large positive contributors to reported earnings.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1100 — leverage increase is modest in the index (though balance-sheet leverage remains concerning given negative equity).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 — a neutral score showing a mix of weak and some stable fundamentals rather than uniformly poor operational signals.
Ownership is highly concentrated among five individuals: Trần Quốc Lập 20.5%, Đặng Văn Hoan 20.5%, Nguyễn Văn Sơn 14.0%, Đàm Thanh Long 5.0%, and Phạm Hùng 0.5%. No director-deal registrations were provided in the input (registrations, when present, are declarations to the exchange and not executed trades).
- Compare the FY2025 notes: reconcile trade receivables and "other receivables / loans receivable / prepayments" to the balance-sheet line that supports the 1.6% of total assets figure for receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Inspect the cash-flow statement and the auditor's notes for reconciliation of net profit to operating cash flow across FY2023–FY2025 to verify the three-year cash-conversion ratio of 6.73.
- Locate the equity and accumulated-loss disclosure (statement of changes in equity and related notes) that shows accumulated losses = 2.75x paid-in capital and negative owner's equity (parent-level) reported for FY2025.
- Review the auditor's report and management discussion for explanations of significant margin or gross-margin changes supporting GMI = 1.6084 and SGA movements consistent with SGAI = 1.3997.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- —
- P/S
- 0.41
- ROE
- 0.1%
- ROA
- −0.2%
- EPS
- −11
- BVPS
- −17.132
- Gross Margin
- 14.4%
- Net Margin
- −0.9%
- D/E
- —
- Current Ratio
- 0.01
- EV/EBITDA
- 7.98
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 4.5M
- Charter Capital
- 45.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT