Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 24.900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 27.022
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.8339th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.3%17th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
BDG's Beneish M-Score is -1.6185 (77th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.49, indicating accounting metrics have moved toward more aggressive patterns relative to domestic peers though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly decisive for Vietnam. Earnings-quality components show high accruals and margin quality (accruals 94.7/100; margin 100.0/100) but weak revenue and receivables signals (revenue quality 0.0/100; receivables quality 36.5/100); the Altman Z-Score is 4.39 (in the safe zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score -1.6185 (77th percentile among Vietnamese peers): measures statistical likelihood of earnings manipulation signals; higher percentile indicates more aggressive accounting relative to peers.
- Year-over-year M-Score change +0.49: measures trajectory of the same signals; a notable upward move and a secondary cue that accounting behaviour changed recently.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.6237: measures shifts in non-current asset capitalization and write-offs; a high AQI can indicate increased capitalization of costs or slower write-offs.
- DSRI (Days' Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.1337: measures receivables growth relative to sales growth; >1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.3% of total assets (17th percentile): the metric in the Vietnamese checks captures prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables; while small in absolute terms, it sits low in the domestic distribution, requiring verification of composition.
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100: indicates the model finds revenue patterns that weaken confidence in reported revenue (the specific scoring method measures persistence, margins and cash backing of revenue).
- Accruals quality = 94.7/100: measures how much earnings are supported by accruals vs cash; a high score implies low abnormal accruals and stronger accrual quality.
- Margin quality = 100.0/100: measures stability and reasonableness of gross/operating margins year-over-year.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0133: measures the level of accruals relative to assets; a low positive number suggests accruals are modest in size.
- Altman Z-Score = 4.39 (safe zone): measures bankruptcy distance using profitability, leverage and liquidity; this value indicates low immediate financial distress risk.
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (neutral): measures nine fundamental signals; a middling score suggests mixed operational and profitability signals rather than clear deterioration.
The top two shareholders together control 86.7%: a state-related entity (Tổng Công ty Sản xuất - Xuất nhập khẩu Bình Dương) at 47.7% and an institutional holder (Công Ty TNHH Thương Mại Việt Vương) at 39.0%, indicating concentrated control with a dominant state-linked owner. Director-deal disclosures show 12 purchase registrations and 0 sales between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (net registered +8.47% of shares outstanding); these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the 2025 change in "Receivables and prepayments" (note or schedule in the annual report) with revenue growth to reconcile DSRI = 1.1337.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and impairment/write-off notes to explain AQI = 2.6237 (capitalizations, reclassifications or reduced write-offs).
- Reconcile operating cash flow vs parent net profit in the cash-flow statement and related notes to verify the 3-year cash conversion ratio = 0.83.
- Review the related-party transactions note and loans/advances schedules to confirm the composition of 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (0.3% of total assets).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.90
- P/S
- 0.34
- ROE
- 19.3%
- ROA
- 10.9%
- EPS
- 5.041
- BVPS
- 27.139
- Gross Margin
- 16.3%
- Net Margin
- 7.7%
- D/E
- 0.26
- Current Ratio
- 1.90
- Rev Growth
- −3.1%
- Profit Growth
- −23.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.07
- Div Yield
- 10.2%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 24.8M
- Charter Capital
- 248B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng May mặc
- Company Type
- CT