Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.419
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 15 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 4.2489th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.8%33rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.98×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting signals of aggressive reporting: a Beneish M-Score of 3.3332 (98th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +12.87, driven by high DSRI (1.5334), GMI (2.5911), AQI (10.0000) and SGI (4.1332). Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: strong accruals and cash-conversion scores (100/100 each) but very weak receivables, margin and revenue quality (receivables 0/100; margin 0/100; revenue 10.5/100). Financial-distress indicators are also concerning: Altman Z-Score is -0.76 (distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score 3.3332 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns); the company ranks in the 98th percentile versus Vietnamese peers, indicating more aggressive accounting than most peers.
- Year-over-year M-Score change +12.87 (measures trajectory in the composite manipulation score); a large positive change indicates recent movement toward more aggressive indicators.
- DSRI 1.5334 (days-sales-related index — measures growth in receivables relative to sales); elevated DSRI can signal revenue recognition or receivable collection issues.
- AQI 10.0000 (quality of accruals index — measures unusual accrual patterns); an extreme AQI points to large or unusual accrual activity.
- SGI 4.1332 (sales growth index — measures sales growth pressure); very high SGI can create incentives to manage earnings.
- Altman Z-Score -0.76 (measures distance to bankruptcy); a negative score places the company in the distress zone.
- Earnings-quality sub-scores: Receivables quality 0.0/100, Margin quality 0.0/100, Revenue quality 10.5/100 (these measure earnings components’ reliability and indicate weak revenue and margin persistence and receivable quality).
- Cash-conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3 years) 4.24 (89th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials — measures how well reported profit converts to cash); a high ratio here reflects profit not turning into cash and is a red flag for earnings quality.
- Accruals quality 100.0/100 (measures the reliability of accrual components); this suggests accruals behave consistently with reported earnings over the assessment period.
- Cash conversion sub-score 100.0/100 (measures the short-term cash realization of earnings components); despite the three-year ratio above, the sub-score indicates recent operating cash flows align with reported profits on the scoring algorithm used.
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of financial health); a middling score indicates neither clear deterioration nor strong improvement in fundamentals.
Shareholding is dispersed among several individuals: top five individual shareholders hold 9.1%, 6.2%, 4.9%, 4.8% and 4.4% respectively. No group or state majority is shown in the provided ownership list, and no director-deal registrations were supplied in the data provided (director-deal registrations are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades).
- Compare the FY2025 notes: reconcile the receivables and 'receivables outside the trade cycle' line to the balance-sheet total (the reported outside-trade-cycle amount is 0.8% of total assets) and review the split between trade receivables, prepayments to suppliers, loans to related parties and other long-term receivables.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit across the last three years using the cash-flow statement and the management discussion: the three-year cash-conversion ratio is 4.24 (89th percentile), so verify major non-cash adjustments and working-capital movements that explain the gap.
- Inspect the revenue recognition and sales-detail notes for policy changes or large one-off sales: DSRI is 1.5334 and revenue-quality score is 10.5/100, so check timing of revenue, returns/allowances, related-party sales and concentration disclosures.
- Verify the accumulated-loss and equity lines in the audited statements: accumulated losses are 0.98x paid-in capital, owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is reported positive, and parent net profit shows no consecutive-year statutory net loss up to FY2025. Also note the statutory loss test for HOSE/HNX delisting does not apply because the company is listed on UPCoM.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 11.52
- P/S
- 1.83
- ROE
- 785.9%
- ROA
- 25.7%
- EPS
- 2.328
- BVPS
- 582
- Gross Margin
- 11.5%
- Net Margin
- 63.5%
- D/E
- 4.62
- Current Ratio
- 0.27
- Rev Growth
- +313.3%
- Profit Growth
- +10903.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 40.73
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 15.2M
- Charter Capital
- 152B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Khai khoáng
- Sub-industry
- Khai khoáng
- Company Type
- CT