Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 3.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 4.685
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 16.4%88th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.09×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is 0.1234 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers and +4.15 year-over-year), signalling that its pattern of accruals and earnings-quality signals is more aggressive than most domestic peers (the US -1.78 cutoff is noted but less relevant here). Earnings-quality components are mixed: accruals quality scores 76.2/100 but cash-conversion and margin quality are 0.0/100, producing an overall Earnings Quality Score of 47.6/100. Solvency and fundamental checks are mixed: Altman Z-Score is 4.24 (safe zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- High Beneish peer percentile: M-Score = 0.1234, Vietnam peer percentile = 94th; this measures the composite statistical likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to Vietnamese peers and shows the company ranks in the top decile for aggressive signals domestically.
- Rising M-Score: year-over-year M-Score change = +4.15; this measures the trajectory of the Beneish signal and indicates the company’s M-Score has moved notably compared with the prior year.
- High GMI (Gross Margin Index): GMI = 4.1802; this component measures deteriorating gross margins year-over-year (values >1 suggest margin pressure) and here is materially >1.
- High DEPI (Depreciation Index): DEPI = 2.1671; this measures a slowdown in depreciation expense relative to asset base (values >1 suggest slower reported depreciation), which can inflate reported profits.
- High AQI (Asset Quality Index) and LVGI: AQI = 1.4637 and LVGI = 1.8362; AQI measures increasing proportion of non-current assets (which can signal capitalization of costs), while LVGI measures leverage of inventory vs sales — both >1 and indicative of rising asset intensity or slower turnover.
- Very low cash-related signals: Cash conversion (component of Earnings Quality) = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100; these measure operating cash flow conversion and stability of margins and are both signaling weak cash realisation and margin reliability.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle: 16.4% of total assets (88th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials); this line measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is high versus peers, which can increase risk that assets are not routine trade receivables.
- Accruals quality = 76.2/100; this measures the extent to which reported earnings are backed by conservative accrual patterns and is relatively strong compared with other components.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100; this measures the cleanliness or normality of receivables behaviour (collections, aging) and scores at the top of the scale here.
- Altman Z-Score = 4.24 (safe zone); this measures distance-to-bankruptcy using profitability, leverage and liquidity metrics and places the company in the zone typically considered low short-term insolvency risk.
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (neutral); while not a strong positive, this measures fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liq., and operating efficiency) and shows a middling position rather than clear deterioration.
Ownership is concentrated among individuals: largest shareholder Nguyễn Kim Hoàn holds 15.3%; four other individuals hold between 3.5% and 6.3%. No state or corporate controlling block is indicated in the provided list, implying a moderately concentrated individual ownership structure without a single majority controller.
- Compare the 2025 line items for 'Loans receivable' and 'Other long-term receivables' in the notes with the balance of receivables outside the trade cycle (16.4% of total assets) to see composition and counterparty details.
- Inspect the depreciation policy note and the reconciliation of carrying amounts/accumulated depreciation to evaluate the DEPI signal (DEPI = 2.1671) and any changes in useful lives or capitalization policy.
- Reconcile reported operating cash flow and the cash-flow-from-operations schedule with the income statement to verify the cash-conversion signal (Cash conversion = 0.0/100).
- Review the related-party transactions and 'Prepayments to suppliers' disclosure to determine the counterparties and terms for non-trade receivables and prepayments that contribute to the 16.4% figure.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.44
- P/S
- 0.05
- ROE
- 8.7%
- ROA
- 4.7%
- EPS
- 763
- BVPS
- 9.238
- Gross Margin
- 1.8%
- Net Margin
- 1.0%
- D/E
- 1.08
- Current Ratio
- 1.03
- EV/EBITDA
- 18.26
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 4.7M
- Charter Capital
- 47.2B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT