AME
Công ty cổ phần Alphanam E&C
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.891
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 13 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −8.854th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 22.9%92nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.5726 (78th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.57, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that have recently moved. Earnings-quality indicators are mixed: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 48.7/100 with very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) but strong receivables quality (100/100) and reasonable margin quality (76.0/100). The Altman Z-Score is 1.72 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral). Several Vietnam-specific checks highlight low operating cash conversion (3-year ratio -8.85, 4th percentile) and sizeable receivables outside the trade cycle (22.9% of total assets, 92nd percentile).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.5726 (78th percentile vs VN peers; YoY change +0.57). The M-Score compares several accounting ratios to detect earnings manipulation tendencies; here it is above most Vietnamese peers and has moved upward year-over-year.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3 years) = -8.85 (4th percentile). This measures the ability of reported profits to convert into cash; a very low value suggests profits are not generating operating cash.
- Cash conversion component of Earnings Quality = 0.0/100. This reinforces the before‑mentioned weak conversion of profit to cash.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 22.9% of total assets (92nd percentile). This line aggregates prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and indicates a large share of assets that are not standard trade receivables.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.72 (distress zone). Z-Score is a composite bankruptcy-prediction metric; 1.72 falls in the 'distress' range, indicating lower distance to default by that model's criteria.
- AQI (asset quality index) = 1.0942 and DEPI (depreciation index) = 1.2990. AQI >1 signals rising non-current asset write-ups or reclassifications; DEPI >1 indicates slower depreciation relative to prior year which can inflate income.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100. This component measures the character of reported receivables relative to revenue recognition and impairment; a top score suggests the receivables that remain align with revenue recognition patterns.
- Margin quality = 76.0/100. This measures persistence and stability of margins; a reasonably high score indicates Gross/Operating margins are not unusually volatile or transient.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9. This score captures recent improvements in profitability, leverage, liquidity and operating efficiency; 6/9 is a neutral-to-positive fundamentals signal.
- SGI (sales growth index) = 1.4811 and SGAI (SG&A index) = 1.0928. Strong sales growth (SGI >1) is evident and SGAI is only modestly elevated, suggesting selling/general/admin growth is not excessively outpacing sales.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư Alphanam holds 83.0% and a second Alphanam entity holds 6.1%, so institutions tied to the Alphanam group control ~89.1% combined; insiders include two individuals at 4.5% and 4.3%. Director-deal disclosures for 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 1 purchase registration (31,460 shares) and 0 sale registrations, net registered volume +0.05% of shares outstanding — these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 cash flows from operating activities (cash flow statement) with consolidated profit after tax and the notes reconciling profit to cash to verify the 3-year operating cash flow / net profit ratio of -8.85.
- Inspect the notes to consolidated financial statements for 'receivables', 'loans to related parties', and 'prepayments to suppliers' to identify items making up the 22.9% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Review the fixed assets note and depreciation policy to check drivers of DEPI = 1.2990 and the reconciliation that produces AQI = 1.0942 (look for reclassifications, impairments reversed or changes in useful lives).
- Confirm statutory-loss related lines in the audited statements and the auditor's report: the filings show no accumulated losses, owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive, zero consecutive net-loss years up to FY2025, and no statutory loss tests met under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.49
- P/S
- 0.08
- ROE
- 4.9%
- ROA
- 1.1%
- EPS
- 619
- BVPS
- 13.036
- Gross Margin
- 4.7%
- Net Margin
- 0.8%
- D/E
- 1.97
- Current Ratio
- 1.25
- Rev Growth
- +48.1%
- Profit Growth
- +78.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 10.96
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 65.2M
- Charter Capital
- 652B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Điện tử & Thiết bị điện
- Sub-industry
- Thiết bị điện
- Company Type
- CT