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AME

Công ty cổ phần Alphanam E&C

VietnamCyclicalsHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpĐiện tử & Thiết bị điệnHNXCT
6.400
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+23.3%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
6.400
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.891

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện tử & Thiết bị điện→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Điện tử & Thiết bị điện” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→86.66B
Fair EV/EBITDA→11.8x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→6.400
Calibrated value vs last close→+23.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.891
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA86.7 tỷyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·3,7113,0652,4402,0651,5901,9951,030580445341228248194
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·21239352513813223451
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1653011300000048000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·2,6811,9221,7481,1169851,217714517323176139167133
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·8726023486827663229321916556126238
Net Inventories
·8388066698805647202925098111827254
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·8388066698805647202925098111827254
Other current assets
·7132351545160.232355
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000002
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·17611076801,3137881968510715411685
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.030001,23400000000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.03000000000000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·914616171391124910346
Tangible fixed assets
·9146161646822910346
Leased assets
·0000823300000
Intagible fixed assets
·0.060.080.10.30.40.60.70.020.030000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·00000000021693026
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000021693026
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·000000000−0.09−0.200
Other non-current assets
·85636163676970727676818253
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·71636163676970727676818253
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·3,8873,1752,5162,1452,9032,0731,110677531447381364278
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·2,9752,3041,7291,3802,5581,747806510382311247232147
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·2,9752,3031,7291,3801,2711,741800501376303243228136
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1,8011,2581,00857367850049119713845429645
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·393956515837560747762153912523
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0.40.4001,288578684410
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000523422006
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·912871787766345326304167148136134133132
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·912871787766345326304167148136134133132
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·652652652652252252252120120120120120120
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.800
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·197157134113927351462815131211
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·3,8873,1752,5162,1452,9032,0731,110677531447381364278
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·174000000000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·652652652652252252252120120120120120120
Good will (Bn. VND)
·14000000000000
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·626100000000000
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
49
Weak
Accrual Quality
57
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
76
Revenue Quality
41

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.57 · 78th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.57
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.942
GMI
0.937
AQI
1.094
SGI
1.481
DEPI
1.299
SGAI
1.093
TATA
0.113
LVGI
1.055

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−8.854th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
22.9%92nd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.5726 (78th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.57, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that have recently moved. Earnings-quality indicators are mixed: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 48.7/100 with very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) but strong receivables quality (100/100) and reasonable margin quality (76.0/100). The Altman Z-Score is 1.72 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral). Several Vietnam-specific checks highlight low operating cash conversion (3-year ratio -8.85, 4th percentile) and sizeable receivables outside the trade cycle (22.9% of total assets, 92nd percentile).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.5726 (78th percentile vs VN peers; YoY change +0.57). The M-Score compares several accounting ratios to detect earnings manipulation tendencies; here it is above most Vietnamese peers and has moved upward year-over-year.
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3 years) = -8.85 (4th percentile). This measures the ability of reported profits to convert into cash; a very low value suggests profits are not generating operating cash.
  • Cash conversion component of Earnings Quality = 0.0/100. This reinforces the before‑mentioned weak conversion of profit to cash.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 22.9% of total assets (92nd percentile). This line aggregates prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and indicates a large share of assets that are not standard trade receivables.
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.72 (distress zone). Z-Score is a composite bankruptcy-prediction metric; 1.72 falls in the 'distress' range, indicating lower distance to default by that model's criteria.
  • AQI (asset quality index) = 1.0942 and DEPI (depreciation index) = 1.2990. AQI >1 signals rising non-current asset write-ups or reclassifications; DEPI >1 indicates slower depreciation relative to prior year which can inflate income.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100. This component measures the character of reported receivables relative to revenue recognition and impairment; a top score suggests the receivables that remain align with revenue recognition patterns.
  • Margin quality = 76.0/100. This measures persistence and stability of margins; a reasonably high score indicates Gross/Operating margins are not unusually volatile or transient.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 6/9. This score captures recent improvements in profitability, leverage, liquidity and operating efficiency; 6/9 is a neutral-to-positive fundamentals signal.
  • SGI (sales growth index) = 1.4811 and SGAI (SG&A index) = 1.0928. Strong sales growth (SGI >1) is evident and SGAI is only modestly elevated, suggesting selling/general/admin growth is not excessively outpacing sales.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư Alphanam holds 83.0% and a second Alphanam entity holds 6.1%, so institutions tied to the Alphanam group control ~89.1% combined; insiders include two individuals at 4.5% and 4.3%. Director-deal disclosures for 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 1 purchase registration (31,460 shares) and 0 sale registrations, net registered volume +0.05% of shares outstanding — these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 cash flows from operating activities (cash flow statement) with consolidated profit after tax and the notes reconciling profit to cash to verify the 3-year operating cash flow / net profit ratio of -8.85.
  • Inspect the notes to consolidated financial statements for 'receivables', 'loans to related parties', and 'prepayments to suppliers' to identify items making up the 22.9% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Review the fixed assets note and depreciation policy to check drivers of DEPI = 1.2990 and the reconciliation that produces AQI = 1.0942 (look for reclassifications, impairments reversed or changes in useful lives).
  • Confirm statutory-loss related lines in the audited statements and the auditor's report: the filings show no accumulated losses, owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive, zero consecutive net-loss years up to FY2025, and no statutory loss tests met under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.72
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.13
Positive
Composite
48
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.81×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.01×Turnover1.28×Leverage4.26=ROE4.5%
Price Risk
Momentum
+27.3%
Volatility
73.5%
Max Drawdown
−35.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
10.34P/E
P/B
0.49
P/S
0.08
ROE
4.9%
ROA
1.1%
EPS
619
BVPS
13.036
Gross Margin
4.7%
Net Margin
0.8%
D/E
1.97
Current Ratio
1.25
Rev Growth
+48.1%
Profit Growth
+78.9%
EV/EBITDA
10.96
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
65.2M
Charter Capital
652B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Điện tử & Thiết bị điện
Sub-industry
Thiết bị điện
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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