Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 8.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.706
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.5532nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 12.4%84th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple signals consistent with aggressive accrual behaviour versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of 0.3622 (94th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.98. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 22.1/100) with especially poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and low Piotroski fundamentals (F-Score 2/9), while solvency distance per Altman Z is in the safe zone at 3.21.
- Beneish M-Score 0.3622 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation); this is at the 94th Vietnam peer percentile, indicating more aggressive accounting relative to peers, and rose by +1.98 year-over-year.
- AQI (Quality Index) 4.8022 (measures asset quality changes such as reclassifications, write-offs, and unusual receivables/prepayments) — a high value consistent with asset-side anomalies.
- DEPI 1.7119 (depreciation index; measures changes in depreciation policies or estimates) — above 1, suggesting slower depreciation or increased useful lives that inflate earnings.
- DSRI 1.1156 (days’ sales receivable index; measures potential revenue recognition timing or receivables growth) — >1 implies receivables are growing faster than sales.
- TATA 0.2359 (total accruals to total assets; measures accrual intensity) — materially positive accruals relative to assets, consistent with weak accruals quality (Accruals quality 23.7/100).
- Earnings Quality 22.1/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) — reported profits are not converting into cash over the three-year window.
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9 (measures nine fundamental signals) — low score indicating weak fundamentals and few corroborating operational improvements.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle 12.4% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables) — 84th percentile among Vietnamese firms, indicating substantial non-trade receivables or prepayments.
- Director-deal registrations: 1 sale registration and 0 purchase registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange and not executed trades.
- Altman Z-Score 3.21 (measures bankruptcy risk using several balance-sheet ratios) — in the classic 'safe' zone, indicating distance from typical bankruptcy thresholds.
- SGI 1.1737 (sales growth index; measures sales growth versus prior period) — >1 indicates revenue growth rather than contraction.
- GMI 0.9871 (gross margin index; measures deterioration in gross margin) — slightly below 1, implying gross margin has not deteriorated materially year-over-year.
- LVGI 1.3595 (leverage index; measures changes in leverage) — while >1 shows rising leverage, the company still reports positive owner's equity (excluding minority interest) and no accumulated losses.
Ownership is concentrated among individuals: five named shareholders hold meaningful stakes (9.9%, 9.2%, 8.3%, 5.0%, 5.0%). There is no listed large state or institutional block in the top five. Director-deal disclosures show one sale registration in the past year (registrations are declared intentions, not executed trades).
- Compare the FY2025 'Receivables and other receivables' schedule with the related-party disclosures and the notes on prepayments to suppliers to identify the composition of the 12.4% of assets classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle'.
- Reconcile the 'Cash flows from operating activities' line in the consolidated cash-flow statement for FY2023–FY2025 with reported net profit to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio supporting the Cash conversion score of 0.0/100.
- Inspect the fixed-asset note (useful lives, depreciation methods, additions/disposals) to assess the drivers of DEPI = 1.7119 and whether depreciation policy changes or re-estimates are disclosed.
- Review the auditor’s report and the accounting policies note for any disclosures about related-party loans, long-term receivables, or reclassifications that would affect AQI = 4.8022.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.43
- P/S
- 0.50
- ROE
- 14.6%
- ROA
- 9.9%
- EPS
- 1.600
- BVPS
- 11.745
- Gross Margin
- 9.6%
- Net Margin
- 4.8%
- D/E
- 0.19
- Current Ratio
- 2.15
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.19
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 20.2M
- Charter Capital
- 202B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT