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AG1

Công ty Cổ phần 28.1

VietnamCyclicalsHàng cá nhân & Gia dụngHàng cá nhânUPCOMCT
11.700
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+9.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
11.700
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
12.776

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng May mặc→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Hàng May mặc” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→13.43B
Fair EV/EBITDA→4.0x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→11.700
Calibrated value vs last close→+9.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
12.776
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA13.4 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·145136129113716983113110144
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1740788634322
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·48152713161426323228
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·320.60.70.60.20.70.633
Net Inventories
·77799390474752777091
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·77799390474752777091
Other current assets
·32220.08330.653
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·15161518202733333740
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.010.010.010.010.010.040.040.040.070.07
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.010.010.010.010.010.040.040.040.070.07
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·12151517192531333738
Tangible fixed assets
·12151517192531333738
Intagible fixed assets
·0.2000000000
Other non-current assets
·20.60.30.8222002
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·20.60.30.8222002
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1601521441319196116146147184
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·1029593916355598998135
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1029593916355598998132
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00318201521422746
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·50.70.636130.200.20
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·000000.10.10.10.13
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000000003
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·58575140284157575049
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·58575140284157575049
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·49494949494949494949
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·111111110.60.1
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·971−9−22−9770.060.06
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1601521441319196116146147184
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·49494949494949494949
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·000000000.40

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
24
Poor
Accrual Quality
43
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
69
Revenue Quality
44

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 1.49 · 97th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +4.55
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
2.852
GMI
1.016
AQI
4.366
SGI
1.140
DEPI
0.871
SGAI
0.885
TATA
0.165
LVGI
1.018

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.3157th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
1.8%47th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows multiple accounting signals that lean toward aggressive recognition relative to Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of 1.4895 (97th Vietnam peer percentile) with a year-over-year increase of +4.55, driven mainly by a very high DSRI (2.8524) and an AQI of 4.3658. At the same time, solvency and some fundamentals are mixed-to-healthy: an Altman Z-Score of 3.44 (safe zone) and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 (neutral). Earnings-quality sub-scores flag weak cash realization and receivables performance (cash conversion 0.0/100; receivables quality 0.0/100).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 1.4895 (97th Vietnam peer percentile): the score is well above the US -1.78 cutoff and ranks in the top 3% versus Vietnamese peers, indicating relatively aggressive accounting signals in the local context; the M-Score rose by +4.55 year-over-year, showing a material change in the score.
  • DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 2.8524: this measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value substantially above 1 implies receivables have grown faster than sales and can indicate revenue recognition or collectability concerns.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 4.3658: this measures increases in asset reclassifications (e.g., capitalizing costs, increases in other assets) and is materially >1, suggesting rising non-current or non-trade assets relative to sales.
  • Earnings-quality: Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100: these component scores indicate operating profit is not being converted into cash and receivables-related items score poorly on the proprietary quality metrics.
  • TATA (total accruals to assets) = 0.1653: while positive accruals are normal, this level indicates non-zero accrual-based earnings contribution; combined with low cash conversion it signals earnings are not fully cash-backed.
  • LVGI (leverage growth index) = 1.0185 and GMI (gross margin index) = 1.0162: modest increases in leverage and slight deterioration in gross margin are present, which alongside other signals can increase earnings-management incentives.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 3.44 (safe zone): this measures distance from bankruptcy using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity—placing the company in the 'safe' range on the Altman scale.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (neutral): this composite of profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operational efficiency metrics is middling rather than strongly negative.
  • SGAI (sales, general & admin index) = 0.8851 and DEPI (depreciation index) = 0.8706: both are <1, indicating SG&A and depreciation behavior that is not showing the common upward pressure seen in aggressive settings (DEPI <1 implies depreciation expense is rising relative to prior period, not being suppressed).
  • Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.31 (57th Vietnam percentile): while not excellent, this ratio is above 1, indicating over the three-year window operating cash has exceeded reported net profit, and ranks around the middle of Vietnamese peers.
Ownership Risk

Shareholding is highly concentrated: a single institutional owner (Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Tổng Công Ty 28) holds 65.0% of shares, with the next largest individual stakes at 3.2%, 2.1% and smaller. Director-deal registrations were not provided here; note that registered intentions with the exchange (if any) are declarations, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year-on-year change in trade receivables and other receivables in the FY2025 balance sheet and the accompanying note to revenue growth to validate the DSRI signal (DSRI = 2.8524).
  • Examine the composition and movement in 'other non-current assets', 'prepayments to suppliers' and 'long-term receivables' in the notes to identify components driving the AQI = 4.3658 and the 1.8% receivables-outside-trade-cycle figure.
  • Reconcile cash from operating activities and reported net profit across the last three annual cash-flow statements and the director/management discussion to confirm the three-year cash conversion of 1.31 and the earnings-quality cash conversion score of 0.0/100.
  • Review the statutory statements and the parent's equity section to confirm accumulated retained earnings (undistributed earnings) are positive and that the company does not meet the Decree 155/2020 (amended) statutory loss criteria in HOSE/HNX contexts — noting the company is traded on UPCoM, where that listing rule does not apply.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.44
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.29
Positive
Composite
65
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.04×Turnover2.40×Leverage2.75=ROE19.1%
Price Risk
Momentum
+16.5%
Volatility
40.2%
Max Drawdown
−14.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.10P/E
P/B
0.97
P/S
0.15
ROE
19.4%
ROA
7.2%
EPS
2.295
BVPS
12.000
Gross Margin
11.6%
Net Margin
2.9%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
1.42
Rev Growth
+14.0%
Profit Growth
+29.3%
EV/EBITDA
2.73
Div Yield
10.7%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
4.9M
Charter Capital
48.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng cá nhân
Sub-industry
Hàng May mặc
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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