Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 11.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 12.776
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.3157th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.8%47th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting signals that lean toward aggressive recognition relative to Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of 1.4895 (97th Vietnam peer percentile) with a year-over-year increase of +4.55, driven mainly by a very high DSRI (2.8524) and an AQI of 4.3658. At the same time, solvency and some fundamentals are mixed-to-healthy: an Altman Z-Score of 3.44 (safe zone) and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 (neutral). Earnings-quality sub-scores flag weak cash realization and receivables performance (cash conversion 0.0/100; receivables quality 0.0/100).
- Beneish M-Score 1.4895 (97th Vietnam peer percentile): the score is well above the US -1.78 cutoff and ranks in the top 3% versus Vietnamese peers, indicating relatively aggressive accounting signals in the local context; the M-Score rose by +4.55 year-over-year, showing a material change in the score.
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 2.8524: this measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value substantially above 1 implies receivables have grown faster than sales and can indicate revenue recognition or collectability concerns.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 4.3658: this measures increases in asset reclassifications (e.g., capitalizing costs, increases in other assets) and is materially >1, suggesting rising non-current or non-trade assets relative to sales.
- Earnings-quality: Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100: these component scores indicate operating profit is not being converted into cash and receivables-related items score poorly on the proprietary quality metrics.
- TATA (total accruals to assets) = 0.1653: while positive accruals are normal, this level indicates non-zero accrual-based earnings contribution; combined with low cash conversion it signals earnings are not fully cash-backed.
- LVGI (leverage growth index) = 1.0185 and GMI (gross margin index) = 1.0162: modest increases in leverage and slight deterioration in gross margin are present, which alongside other signals can increase earnings-management incentives.
- Altman Z-Score = 3.44 (safe zone): this measures distance from bankruptcy using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity—placing the company in the 'safe' range on the Altman scale.
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (neutral): this composite of profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operational efficiency metrics is middling rather than strongly negative.
- SGAI (sales, general & admin index) = 0.8851 and DEPI (depreciation index) = 0.8706: both are <1, indicating SG&A and depreciation behavior that is not showing the common upward pressure seen in aggressive settings (DEPI <1 implies depreciation expense is rising relative to prior period, not being suppressed).
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.31 (57th Vietnam percentile): while not excellent, this ratio is above 1, indicating over the three-year window operating cash has exceeded reported net profit, and ranks around the middle of Vietnamese peers.
Shareholding is highly concentrated: a single institutional owner (Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Tổng Công Ty 28) holds 65.0% of shares, with the next largest individual stakes at 3.2%, 2.1% and smaller. Director-deal registrations were not provided here; note that registered intentions with the exchange (if any) are declarations, not executed trades.
- Compare the year-on-year change in trade receivables and other receivables in the FY2025 balance sheet and the accompanying note to revenue growth to validate the DSRI signal (DSRI = 2.8524).
- Examine the composition and movement in 'other non-current assets', 'prepayments to suppliers' and 'long-term receivables' in the notes to identify components driving the AQI = 4.3658 and the 1.8% receivables-outside-trade-cycle figure.
- Reconcile cash from operating activities and reported net profit across the last three annual cash-flow statements and the director/management discussion to confirm the three-year cash conversion of 1.31 and the earnings-quality cash conversion score of 0.0/100.
- Review the statutory statements and the parent's equity section to confirm accumulated retained earnings (undistributed earnings) are positive and that the company does not meet the Decree 155/2020 (amended) statutory loss criteria in HOSE/HNX contexts — noting the company is traded on UPCoM, where that listing rule does not apply.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.97
- P/S
- 0.15
- ROE
- 19.4%
- ROA
- 7.2%
- EPS
- 2.295
- BVPS
- 12.000
- Gross Margin
- 11.6%
- Net Margin
- 2.9%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 1.42
- Rev Growth
- +14.0%
- Profit Growth
- +29.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.73
- Div Yield
- 10.7%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 4.9M
- Charter Capital
- 48.6B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng May mặc
- Company Type
- CT