Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 7.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 8.027
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.5%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.1424th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 16.4%88th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M‑Score is -1.20, which is above the US cutoff but, more relevantly, sits at the 85th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and moved +1.32 year‑over‑year — signalling an above‑peer tendency toward accounting aggressiveness and a recent shift in the direction of the score. Other flags include a very high DEPI of 10.0000 (depreciation index) and a low cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit = 0.14, 24th percentile) while the Altman Z‑Score is 1.51 (in the distress zone). At the same time, some supporting signals exist: receivables quality scores 100/100 and the Piotroski F‑Score is 6/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M‑Score = -1.20 (measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation); 85th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and a year‑over‑year increase of +1.32 (the percentile and positive trajectory indicate more aggressive accounting relative to peers and a recent change).
- DEPI = 10.0000 (depreciation index; unusually high value suggests changes in depreciation policies or asset valuation timing versus prior year).
- Cash conversion (3‑year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.14, 24th percentile (measures the extent to which reported profits convert into operating cash; a low ratio indicates profits are not producing cash).
- Earnings Quality Score = 47.6/100 with Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Cash conversion = 0.0/100 (these component scores measure how much reported revenue and cash flows reflect underlying economic performance; very low scores on revenue and cash conversion are concerns).
- Altman Z‑Score = 1.51 (measures financial distress and distance to bankruptcy; 1.51 is in the conventional distress zone).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 16.4% of total assets, 88th percentile (this line—prepayments, loans receivable and long‑term receivables—measures non‑trade receivables as a share of assets; a high percentile indicates material non‑trade receivables).
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (measures collectability and composition of receivables; a top score suggests trade receivables are of higher quality).
- Accruals quality = 78.1/100 and TATA = 0.0548 (total accruals to total assets = 0.0548; these measure the extent and quality of accruals — here accruals are moderate and accruals quality is relatively strong).
- Piotroski F‑Score = 6/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of improving financial health; a 6 is a neutral‑to‑positive score indicating some healthy fundamentals).
- No accumulated losses and 0 years of parent net loss up to FY2025; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and none of the statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) are met (these are facts about the published statements indicating the company meets statutory profitability/solvency triggers).
Ownership is moderately concentrated: the largest individual shareholder holds 13.4% (Vũ Huy Đông) and three other named shareholders hold between 5.2% and 5.9% each. Director/insider deal registrations over the last year show 6 purchase registrations and 0 sale registrations (net registered +5.04% of shares outstanding), which are intentions registered with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the year‑on‑year movement in depreciation expense and note any changes in depreciation policy or useful lives in the fixed‑assets note to understand the DEPI = 10.0000.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit in the cash flow statement and check the notes for large non‑cash adjustments or timing items that explain the cash conversion = 0.14 (3‑year).
- Inspect the schedule or note that details 'receivables and other receivables' (including prepayments, loans receivable and long‑term receivables) to verify the 16.4% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Review the auditor's report and the statutory notes that disclose whether any of the loss/delisting triggers under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) were met — the published statements indicate none of those statutory loss tests are met for FY2025.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.60
- P/S
- 0.31
- ROE
- 10.3%
- ROA
- 3.8%
- EPS
- 1.266
- BVPS
- 12.628
- Gross Margin
- 13.5%
- Net Margin
- 5.7%
- D/E
- 0.96
- Current Ratio
- 1.34
- Rev Growth
- +13.5%
- Profit Growth
- +98.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.66
- Div Yield
- 6.6%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 76.4M
- Charter Capital
- 764B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng May mặc
- Company Type
- CT