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AAV

Công ty Cổ phần AAV Group

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnUPCOMCT
5.900
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.6%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
5.900
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
6.882

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.110
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.97%
Ke
11.97%
x
E/(D+E)
88.41%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.54%
x
D/(D+E)
11.59%
=
WACC
11.23%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→5.900
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.6%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
6.882
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)13.23%high risk: yes
Growth rate3.50%growth method: default
Base cash flow34.6 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
11.2%5.8405.8665.8665.8665.866
12.2%5.2255.2255.2255.2255.225
13.2%N/AN/AN/A5.2185.225
14.2%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
15.2%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·25856966975066234234118213312310181
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1380.422320201152115
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·01380000.7000.06000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·232410652727635312290126101756852
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·2081512632662631651551921121212
Net Inventories
·3361014192429232668
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·3591319222629232668
Other current assets
·11101010118787866
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,167365249330330259247208237234173184
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·38434535330322369763030
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·3843453534272369763030
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·192620222337414345412025
Tangible fixed assets
·192619212337414345401823
Intagible fixed assets
·0.020.30.40.50.60.060.0800222
Investment in properties
·455555556444
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·35760000017000.70.7
Investments in associate companies
·357600000170000
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000000.70.7
Other non-current assets
·1347567888333812213
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.20.20.514150.50.812213
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,4259349181,080992601589390370357274265
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·680168138271185213216191204200249242
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·34411587219133157161145134515630
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·9610076194123135128106117324227
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.012630,00010.77220.8710.4
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·3365351515256544769149193212
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·2860.2000500089133150
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·7457667808098073873731991661572423
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·7457667808098073873731991661572423
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·6906906906906673193191441251251010
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−49−28−1252650363921150.4−0.9
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,4259349181,080992601589390370357274265
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0005400215093116
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000026500000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·6906906906906673193191441251251010
Good will (Bn. VND)
·1347566473333700000
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·393937494819181620181414

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
45
Weak
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 2.90 · 98th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +6.85
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.068
GMI
0.962
AQI
2.224
SGI
8.274
DEPI
1.030
SGAI
0.155
TATA
−0.005
LVGI
3.594

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
41.5%98th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.07×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
3Statutory test met
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is 2.9027, placing it at the 98th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and up +6.85 year-over-year, signalling an unusually aggressive accounting profile relative to local peers (the -1.78 US cutoff is noted but Vietnamese distributions differ). Other red signals include a very high LVGI (3.5935) and AQI (2.2239); the Altman Z-Score is 0.54 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 2.9027 (98th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +6.85) — the M-Score measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation; the high peer percentile and large year-over-year rise indicate accounting metrics have moved markedly compared with local peers.
  • Large receivables and non-trade asset balances: 'receivables outside the trade cycle' are 41.5% of total assets (98th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials) — this line includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is unusually large relative to peers.
  • Low cash conversion and revenue/margin quality: Earnings-Quality score 45.0/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100, Margin quality 0.0/100 and Revenue quality 0.0/100 — these metrics measure operating cash flow conversion and sustainability of margins and revenues; they are very weak here.
  • High leverage of accrual-based risk components inside the Beneish decomposition: AQI 2.2239 and LVGI 3.5935 — AQI measures asset quality (higher suggests more non-cash or long-lived asset growth), LVGI captures leverage/gross margin interactions; both are elevated.
  • Altman Z-Score 0.54 (distress zone) — this score measures distance to bankruptcy based on financial ratios; 0.54 indicates low distance to financial distress under the Altman model.
  • Three consecutive years of net loss at the parent level up to FY2025 — the published statements show losses in each of the latest three years (a statutory loss test condition for HOSE/HNX listings, though the company trades on UPCoM where that delisting rule does not apply).
  • Director-deal registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30: two sale registrations (two traders; aggregate 15,000,000 shares with one registration missing a volume) and one purchase registration (one trader; volume not specified) — these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality 100.0/100 and Receivables quality 100.0/100 in the Earnings Quality components — these scores measure that reported accruals and receivables movements are, by the applied metrics, internally consistent and not flagged for abnormal accrual patterns.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0050 — a near-zero total accruals measure suggests limited aggregate accrual expansion in the period measured.
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9 (neutral) — the F-Score aggregates profitability, leverage/liquidity and operating efficiency signals and here sits in the middle range rather than at the weakest extreme.
  • Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and accumulated losses are relatively small at 0.07x paid-in capital — the statutory balance-sheet indicators show shareholders’ equity is still positive despite accumulated losses.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated in individuals: Phạm Quang Khánh holds 23.6% while three other individuals hold 5.6%, 5.2% and 4.9%. This profile indicates significant insider/individual control without a dominant state or institutional block in the disclosed top four.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the line items and notes for 'loans receivable', 'prepayments to suppliers' and 'other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 balance sheet and related-party note to substantiate the 41.5% of assets flagged as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile the cash flow from operations and the income statement to verify the Cash conversion metric (investigate cash collections schedules and any working-capital timing differences in the cash flow statement).
  • Review the auditors' report, management discussion and the statutory financial-statement schedules for the three consecutive years of parent-company net losses and the accumulated loss disclosure (0.07x paid-in capital).
  • Examine the director-deal registration notices filed 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 to confirm the registered volumes and the identity/relationship of registrants (two sale registrations totalling 15,000,000 shares reported, plus registrations with unspecified volumes).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.54
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.05
Negative
Composite
43
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✗Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.94×Interest Burden−0.94×Op. Margin0.07×Turnover0.22×Leverage1.91=ROE−2.8%
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.0%
Volatility
23.9%
Max Drawdown
−35.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
—P/E
P/B
0.58
P/S
1.28
ROE
−3.0%
ROA
−1.8%
EPS
−311
BVPS
10.236
Gross Margin
3.5%
Net Margin
−6.6%
D/E
0.51
Current Ratio
0.75
Rev Growth
+727.4%
Profit Growth
−47.2%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
69.0M
Charter Capital
690B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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