Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.882
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 41.5%98th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.07×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 3Statutory test met
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 2.9027, placing it at the 98th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and up +6.85 year-over-year, signalling an unusually aggressive accounting profile relative to local peers (the -1.78 US cutoff is noted but Vietnamese distributions differ). Other red signals include a very high LVGI (3.5935) and AQI (2.2239); the Altman Z-Score is 0.54 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score 2.9027 (98th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +6.85) — the M-Score measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation; the high peer percentile and large year-over-year rise indicate accounting metrics have moved markedly compared with local peers.
- Large receivables and non-trade asset balances: 'receivables outside the trade cycle' are 41.5% of total assets (98th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials) — this line includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is unusually large relative to peers.
- Low cash conversion and revenue/margin quality: Earnings-Quality score 45.0/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100, Margin quality 0.0/100 and Revenue quality 0.0/100 — these metrics measure operating cash flow conversion and sustainability of margins and revenues; they are very weak here.
- High leverage of accrual-based risk components inside the Beneish decomposition: AQI 2.2239 and LVGI 3.5935 — AQI measures asset quality (higher suggests more non-cash or long-lived asset growth), LVGI captures leverage/gross margin interactions; both are elevated.
- Altman Z-Score 0.54 (distress zone) — this score measures distance to bankruptcy based on financial ratios; 0.54 indicates low distance to financial distress under the Altman model.
- Three consecutive years of net loss at the parent level up to FY2025 — the published statements show losses in each of the latest three years (a statutory loss test condition for HOSE/HNX listings, though the company trades on UPCoM where that delisting rule does not apply).
- Director-deal registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30: two sale registrations (two traders; aggregate 15,000,000 shares with one registration missing a volume) and one purchase registration (one trader; volume not specified) — these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Accruals quality 100.0/100 and Receivables quality 100.0/100 in the Earnings Quality components — these scores measure that reported accruals and receivables movements are, by the applied metrics, internally consistent and not flagged for abnormal accrual patterns.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0050 — a near-zero total accruals measure suggests limited aggregate accrual expansion in the period measured.
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9 (neutral) — the F-Score aggregates profitability, leverage/liquidity and operating efficiency signals and here sits in the middle range rather than at the weakest extreme.
- Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and accumulated losses are relatively small at 0.07x paid-in capital — the statutory balance-sheet indicators show shareholders’ equity is still positive despite accumulated losses.
Ownership is concentrated in individuals: Phạm Quang Khánh holds 23.6% while three other individuals hold 5.6%, 5.2% and 4.9%. This profile indicates significant insider/individual control without a dominant state or institutional block in the disclosed top four.
- Compare the line items and notes for 'loans receivable', 'prepayments to suppliers' and 'other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 balance sheet and related-party note to substantiate the 41.5% of assets flagged as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the cash flow from operations and the income statement to verify the Cash conversion metric (investigate cash collections schedules and any working-capital timing differences in the cash flow statement).
- Review the auditors' report, management discussion and the statutory financial-statement schedules for the three consecutive years of parent-company net losses and the accumulated loss disclosure (0.07x paid-in capital).
- Examine the director-deal registration notices filed 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 to confirm the registered volumes and the identity/relationship of registrants (two sale registrations totalling 15,000,000 shares reported, plus registrations with unspecified volumes).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.58
- P/S
- 1.28
- ROE
- −3.0%
- ROA
- −1.8%
- EPS
- −311
- BVPS
- 10.236
- Gross Margin
- 3.5%
- Net Margin
- −6.6%
- D/E
- 0.51
- Current Ratio
- 0.75
- Rev Growth
- +727.4%
- Profit Growth
- −47.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 69.0M
- Charter Capital
- 690B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT