WTC
Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải thủy - Vinacomin
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 10.656
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 26 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.4817th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 31.4%96th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows a moderately elevated Beneish M-Score of -1.4259 (81st percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating more aggressive accounting metrics than most local peers; the M-Score moved slightly toward manipulation risk year-over-year (change -0.20). Key earnings-quality weaknesses are concentrated in receivables and revenue measures (Receivables quality 0/100; Revenue quality 0/100) while accruals and cash-conversion metrics score strongly (both 100/100). The Altman Z-Score is 1.68 (in the distress zone), and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score -1.4259 (81st percentile vs VN peers): the overall score is above most Vietnamese peers; the peer percentile and the year-over-year change (-0.20) are relevant because the US -1.78 cutoff is not fully transferrable to Vietnam.
- DSRI (Days' Sales Receivable Index) = 3.2420: measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value well above 1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales and may signal revenue recognition or collectability concerns.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 31.4% of total assets (96th percentile): a very large share of assets classified as prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables compared with Vietnamese peers.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100: these scores indicate weak evidence that reported revenues and receivables reflect cash-generating core operations.
- SGAI (Selling, General & Administrative Index) = 1.6147: SG&A growing faster than sales, which can pressure margins or reflect cost recognition timing.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.68 (distress zone): this score measures distance to bankruptcy-like distress using balance-sheet and income statement ratios; 1.68 is in the range typically associated with elevated financial distress risk.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100: accrual measures (TATA = -0.0316) indicate accruals are not the primary source of earnings volatility and overall accrual quality looks strong.
- Cash conversion score = 100.0/100 but note the three-year operating cash flow / net profit measure (Vietnam check) is -0.48 (17th percentile): while the earnings-quality metric flags good short-term cash-accrual alignment, the three-year cash-conversion metric suggests profits have not consistently turned into cash over a longer horizon.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.3506 and LVGI (Leverage index) = 1.3462: AQI below 1 typically indicates no big shift to capitalizing or reclassifying expenses into assets, while LVGI >1 shows some increase in leverage but not an extreme change.
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive: the statements show retained earnings are not negative and parent equity is positive.
Control is highly concentrated: Công ty TNHH Vận Tải Việt Thuận holds 82.6% of shares, with the next largest individual holders at 4.1%, 3.8% and smaller stakes. Director-deal disclosures (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30) show registrations for 2 sales (1,120,409 shares) and 2 purchases (410,000 shares), net registered volume -4.06% of shares outstanding; these are registered intentions recorded with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the year‑end breakdown of ‘Receivables and other long‑term receivables’ in the notes to the balance sheet with the revenue note to identify related-party, prepayment or loan components that make up the 31.4% of total assets.
- Reconcile the DSRI components: confirm the change in trade receivables and sales in the revenue recognition note and the ageing schedule to test whether receivables growth aligns with billings or represents unusual terms.
- Review the SG&A note and segment or expense schedules to see what drove SGAI = 1.6147 (is the increase from one-off items, recurring expense growth, or reclassification?).
- Check the cash-flow statement and any reconciliation of profit to cash from operations over the past three years to verify the three-year operating cash flow / net profit of -0.48 and explain the mismatch between high short-term cash/accrual scores and the multi-year cash conversion weakness.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.56
- P/S
- 0.12
- ROE
- 4.3%
- ROA
- 1.5%
- EPS
- 651
- BVPS
- 17.108
- Gross Margin
- 6.6%
- Net Margin
- 0.8%
- D/E
- 2.50
- Current Ratio
- 1.67
- Rev Growth
- −9.1%
- Profit Growth
- −22.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 14.78
- Div Yield
- 6.2%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 17.5M
- Charter Capital
- 175B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Vận tải Thủy
- Company Type
- CT