VPI

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Bất động sản Văn Phú

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT

57.900

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

−11.4%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 57.900
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 51.273

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Medium; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details

Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.546

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

9.50%

E/(D+E)

46.54%

Kd(1-t)

5.02%

D/(D+E)

53.46%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.50%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→57.900

Calibrated value vs last close→−11.4%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

51.273

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)10.00%high risk: no

Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental firm blend

Base cash flow131.4 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	0.5%	2.0%	3.5%	5.0%	6.5%
8.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

VPI among Real Estate

Every stock in the sector, VPI marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is VPI. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	8,216	5,259	5,950	5,037	6,773	5,794	6,159	4,015	2,587	2,319	1,620
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	706	498	191	488	1,123	1,031	651	95	326	106	19
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	149	0.1	5	38	0	4	15	22	22	0	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	1,748	1,787	2,002	2,515	2,112	2,743	3,392	1,627	1,052	1,003	375
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	407	135	108	111	322	333	110	157	32	39	167
Net Inventories	·	5,251	2,947	3,697	1,926	3,443	1,803	2,077	2,136	1,139	1,146	1,136
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	5,258	2,960	3,710	1,939	3,456	1,803	2,077	2,136	1,139	1,146	1,136
Other current assets	·	362	28	55	69	95	212	24	135	48	64	91
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	6,512	5,879	6,580	6,059	3,062	3,910	2,813	2,707	1,150	374	490
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	430	745	705	517	484	1,709	1,134	1,361	490	115	85
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	430	742	693	497	484	1,709	1,134	1,361	490	113	83
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	526	535	560	584	581	592	616	9	9	13	6
Tangible fixed assets	·	521	530	555	578	575	587	611	9	9	13	6
Intagible fixed assets	·	5	5	5	6	6	5	5	0	0	0	0
Investment in properties	·	305	316	717	734	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	2,232	1,592	1,743	1,439	1,476	983	559	608	505	206	357
Investments in associate companies	·	2,232	1,592	1,743	1,439	1,455	965	559	518	488	189	130
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	0.3	0	0	0	0	17	0	90	17	17	227
Goodwill	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0	0
Other non-current assets	·	130	153	152	138	162	203	259	17	3	1	3
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	26	38	60	79	159	202	256	11	3	1	3
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	14,728	11,139	12,531	11,096	9,835	9,704	8,972	6,722	3,737	2,694	2,110
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	9,254	6,064	8,564	7,337	6,441	6,745	6,281	4,265	1,701	2,330	1,767
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	3,093	2,106	4,675	2,636	3,565	4,097	3,501	2,692	1,380	1,883	1,238
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	1,078	1,252	2,096	795	1,794	1,272	1,695	785	334	548	234
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	1,045	86	1,029	579	623	1,713	647	132	1	2	75
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	6,161	3,959	3,890	4,701	2,876	2,648	2,780	1,572	320	447	529
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	5,211	3,297	3,263	3,172	1,356	1,765	2,567	1,438	279	59	172
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	5,474	5,074	3,967	3,759	3,394	2,958	2,691	2,458	2,037	364	344
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	5,474	5,074	3,967	3,759	3,394	2,958	2,691	2,458	2,037	364	344
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	3,200	3,200	2,420	2,420	2,200	2,000	1,600	1,600	1,600	262	262
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Other Reserves	·	18	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	1,441	1,061	1,223	1,000	879	735	851	624	221	54	45
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	14,728	11,139	12,531	11,096	9,835	9,704	8,972	6,722	3,737	2,694	2,110
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	523	895	1,332	477	594	588	357	4	10	0
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
Convertible bonds (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	664	603	0	0	0	0	0	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	3,200	3,200	2,420	2,420	2,200	2,000	1,600	1,600	1,600	262	262
Good will (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	0
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	225	215	229	244	202	200	217	211	193	24	14

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.98 · 15th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▼ −2.33

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.939

GMI

0.445

AQI

0.847

SGI

1.042

DEPI

0.952

SGAI

1.830

TATA

0.016

LVGI

1.162

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: −0.9914th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 5.7%70th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.40

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.31

Positive

Composite

Below 30

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.76×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.26×Turnover0.13×Leverage2.69=ROE7.2%

Price Risk

Momentum

+21.6%

Volatility

31.9%

Max Drawdown

−23.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

51.82P/E

P/B: 3.86
P/S: 10.24
ROE: 7.7%
ROA: 3.0%
EPS: 1.221
BVPS: 16.402
Gross Margin: 37.9%
Net Margin: 19.9%
D/E: 1.15
Current Ratio: 2.66
Rev Growth: +5.6%
Profit Growth: +19.5%
EV/EBITDA: 50.49
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 352M
Charter Capital: 3,521B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3): Bất động sản
Sub-industry: Bất động sản
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for VPI. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Tô Như Toàn

Indiv

22.7%

72.6M

2026-06-30

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư THG Holdings

Inst

21.3%

68.1M

2026-06-30

VIAC (No.1) Limited Partnership

Inst

8.8%

28.1M

2025-12-05

Tô Như Thắng

Indiv

2.7%

8.7M

2026-06-30

Lê Châu Giang

Indiv

2.3%

7.3M

2026-06-30

Đào Thị Hồng Hạnh

Indiv

2.3%

7.3M

2026-06-30

Phạm Hồng Châu

Indiv

0.5%

1.7M

2026-06-30

Board & Management

Tô Như Toàn22.7%

Chairman of Management Board

Tô Như Thắng2.7%

Vice Chairman of Management Board/Deputy General Director

Phạm Hồng Châu0.5%

Member of Management Board/General Director

Nguyễn Diệu Tú

Vice Chairman of Management Board

Đỗ Thị Thanh Phương

Member of Management Board/Deputy General Director/Spokesman/Person in charge of Corporate governace

Lâm Hoàng Đăng

Deputy General Director

Top connections

CII8.8%VPL8.8%BID8.8%

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: 1 by 1 trader; 1 without a stated volume
Purchase registrations: None

VIAC (No.1) Limited Partnership
Sale · Institution
—
2025-12-05

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

VPI among Real Estate

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

VPI among Real Estate

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months