Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 10.900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 13.440
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −20.722nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 19.0%90th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.1639 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.83, signalling that accounting-side indicators have trended toward more aggressive settings relative to the Vietnamese sample. Several earnings-quality measures are weak: three-year cash conversion is -20.72 (2nd percentile), the Altman Z-Score is 1.64 (distress zone), and the overall Earnings Quality Score is 36.8/100, while receivables-quality and some Beneish components are comparatively stronger.
- High Beneish peer percentile: M-Score -0.1639 at the 93rd percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers); year-over-year change +0.83 (the accounting mix has moved materially compared with the prior year).
- Very poor three-year cash conversion: operating cash flow / net profit = -20.72 (2nd percentile vs Vietnamese non-financials), indicating profits have not converted into cash over the three-year window.
- Altman Z-Score 1.64 (in the distress zone), which measures bankruptcy distance using profitability, leverage and liquidity components.
- High Accruals Quality component: TATA = 0.1279 and overall Accruals quality score low (52.6/100) combined with Cash conversion 0.0/100 — this mix implies accruals-based earnings that are not supported by cash flows.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle at 19.0% of total assets (90th percentile), meaning a material share of assets are prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables rather than trade receivables.
- Earnings-quality margins are weak: Margin quality 0.0/100 and an overall Earnings Quality Score of 36.8/100, flagging low persistence or reliability of reported margins.
- Receivables-quality strong: Receivables quality component = 86.7/100, suggesting that trade receivables behaviour (turnover, aging within trade norms) is comparatively good despite elevated non-trade receivables.
- Some Beneish subcomponents are not extreme: DSRI = 1.0221 (small increase in days' sales in receivables) and GMI = 1.0365 (gross margin index modestly >1) rather than very large directional shifts.
- No accumulated losses and positive owner's equity (without minority interest), and the parent reported 0 consecutive years of net loss up to FY2025, indicating the company is not in a statutory accumulated-loss position.
The share register is highly concentrated: an individual, Phạm Văn Giang, holds 51.6%, with institutional holder Công ty Cổ Phần Thép Tổng Hợp at 18.5% and two other individuals holding 9.7% and smaller stakes. Director-deal activity shows 2 sale registrations (379,400 shares) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30, net registered volume -1.55% of shares outstanding; these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 'Loans and receivables' / 'Other receivables' note with the trade-receivables aging schedule to quantify the 19.0% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and net profit in the consolidated cash-flow statement and the audit schedule to confirm the three-year cash conversion ratio of -20.72 and identify the largest reconciling items (change in working capital, non‑cash expenses, related-party flows).
- Examine the related-party transactions note and the schedules for prepayments/advances to suppliers to see the composition and counterparties of non-trade receivables and prepayments.
- Review the equity and retained-earnings lines in the audited statement of financial position and the parent-company profit statement to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that owner's equity (without minority interest) is positive.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.03
- P/S
- 0.26
- ROE
- 4.6%
- ROA
- 1.5%
- EPS
- 478
- BVPS
- 10.609
- Gross Margin
- 4.3%
- Net Margin
- 1.1%
- D/E
- 1.91
- Current Ratio
- 1.06
- Rev Growth
- +73.2%
- Profit Growth
- +4877.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 13.63
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 24.5M
- Charter Capital
- 245B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Kim loại
- Sub-industry
- Thép và sản phẩm thép
- Company Type
- CT