Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 2.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 2.805
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.1%11th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 2
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M‑Score is -0.2847, which is above the US-studied cutoff but sits at the 92nd percentile among Vietnamese peers and rose by +0.75 year‑over‑year, indicating accounting measures have moved relative to peers. Earnings‑quality components show high accruals and receivables quality (100/100 each) but very weak margin and revenue quality (0/100 each); the overall Earnings Quality Score is 62/100. Solvency and fundamentals are mixed: an Altman Z‑Score of 2.68 places the company in the ‘grey zone’ for bankruptcy distance and the Piotroski F‑Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Elevated Beneish peer standing: M‑Score -0.2847 at the 92nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers — the company’s M‑Score is more aggressive than most local peers even though the US cutoff (-1.78) is not directly transferable.
- Year‑over‑year M‑Score increase: M‑Score rose by +0.75 year‑on‑year, signalling a notable change in the accounting signals compared with the prior year.
- High GMI and AQI: Gross Margin Index (GMI) = 3.4307 and Asset Quality Index (AQI) = 3.8239 — both unusually high and components that, in Beneish’s framework, can be associated with pressure on margins or with reclassification of assets.
- Low margin and revenue quality: Earnings‑Quality sub-scores for margin quality = 0/100 and revenue quality = 0/100, indicating reported margins and top‑line patterns fail internal quality tests used here.
- Weak cash conversion: Cash conversion score = 40/100 (and TATA = -0.0479) indicating operating cash flow trends lag earnings; Altman Z‑Score 2.68 (grey zone) amplifies the concern about financial stress.
- Accruals and receivables quality: Accruals quality = 100/100 and Receivables quality = 100/100 indicate low abnormal accruals and receivables behaviour by the measures used.
- Low DSRI and stable DEPI/LVGI: Days Sales in Receivables Index (DSRI) = 0.9662 (slightly lower than prior), DEPI = 0.9567 and LVGI = 0.4656 do not show extreme receivables inflation or inventory/long‑lived asset revaluation on these indices.
- No statutory or accumulated loss triggers: The FY2025 statements do not meet the statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (amended), and accumulated retained earnings are not negative.
Ownership is moderately concentrated among individuals: Nguyễn Thanh Tùng 4.7%, Nguyễn Trịnh Chung 4.3% and Nguyễn Trần Linh Chi 3.4%. No state controlling owner is indicated; director‑deal registrations were not provided (remember registrations, if present, are intentions recorded with the exchange).
- Compare FY2025 note(s) on receivables and prepayments: verify the line items and amounts that constitute the 0.1% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and reconcile them to the related‑party schedules, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to reported profit: in the cash flow statement and the auditor’s notes, trace the components that produce the TATA = -0.0479 and the 40/100 cash‑conversion score (check major non‑cash adjustments and working capital movements).
- Examine revenue recognition notes and segment/margin disclosures: review accounting policies and contracts disclosed to understand drivers behind margin quality = 0/100 and revenue quality = 0/100, and compare revenue by customer/segment to assess concentration or unusual reclassifications.
- Confirm statutory loss and equity lines: verify the retained earnings, parent‑company profit (two consecutive net losses noted to FY2025), and the explicit statements/tests responding to Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) to confirm that none of the statutory loss triggers were met in the audited FY2025 statements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.20
- P/S
- 0.14
- ROE
- −2.4%
- ROA
- −1.8%
- EPS
- −264
- BVPS
- 10.695
- Gross Margin
- 1.4%
- Net Margin
- −1.7%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 5.25
- Rev Growth
- −26.1%
- Profit Growth
- +38.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 37.4M
- Charter Capital
- 374B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Kim loại
- Sub-industry
- Thép và sản phẩm thép
- Company Type
- CT