TTF

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Kỹ nghệ Gỗ Trường Thành

VietnamCyclicalsTài nguyên Cơ bảnLâm nghiệp và GiấyHOSECT

1.010

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Close below calibrated value

+23.3%Calibrated value vs last close

−50%At last close+100%+500%

Last close (VND): 1.010
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 1.245

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Model reliability: Medium; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: 50.4%; 12 monthsHistorical calibration; Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+3.2percentage points

Cyclicals12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.

Not an absolute return forecast.
Not a price target.
A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.

Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

Sector calibration span · percentage points

−7.9+8.6

The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
Actual returns can fall outside it.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Tài nguyên Cơ bản” maps to the cyclical group.

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details

Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→40.17B

Fair EV/EBITDA→25.7x

Years of data→7

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→1.010

Calibrated value vs last close→+23.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

1.245

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Mid-cycle EBITDA40.2 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7

TTF among Cyclicals

Every stock in the sector, TTF marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is TTF. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	1,574	1,361	1,821	1,945	2,090	1,526	1,227	2,052	3,337	2,711	3,397	3,102	2,786	·
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	58	105	143	170	244	76	82	151	64	112	8	86	66	·
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	98	16	69	47	21	8	148	77	90	0.8	125	12	52	·
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	963	867	850	672	549	363	368	751	1,537	755	820	752	390	·
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	233	236	100	121	94	95	99	66	116	78	59	52	60	·
Net Inventories	·	405	338	476	679	934	782	583	1,056	1,613	1,784	2,416	2,211	2,245	·
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	429	361	616	819	1,158	1,210	1,277	1,398	1,694	1,864	2,474	2,221	2,255	·
Other current assets	·	49	34	283	377	343	297	45	16	33	59	28	40	34	·
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	226	226	226	226	0	0	0	0	0	0	17	·
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	1,265	1,432	1,030	1,061	749	715	919	729	830	874	849	911	732	·
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	156	179	0	3	5	9	30	39	37	35	45	19	0	·
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.4	0.9	0.9	1.0	1	0	·
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	489	515	345	373	371	382	345	297	456	498	493	390	515	·
Tangible fixed assets	·	408	424	247	268	267	273	233	281	442	483	478	365	390	·
Intagible fixed assets	·	81	91	99	105	103	108	113	17	14	14	15	25	43	·
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	335	379	360	359	73	74	73	142	201	190	194	167	170	·
Investments in associate companies	·	307	362	359	358	70	72	72	92	191	190	194	91	94	·
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	28	1	1	1	1	1	1	12	0.3	0.3	0.3	59	88	·
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	−0.8	0	0	0	0	0	0	−4	0	0	0	−0.1	−12	·
Other non-current assets	·	186	248	198	225	238	211	436	234	84	94	93	65	47	·
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	103	144	73	79	71	33	12	8	84	94	93	59	45	·
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	2,839	2,792	2,850	3,006	2,838	2,241	2,146	2,780	4,166	3,585	4,247	4,013	3,518	·
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	2,450	2,393	2,583	2,573	2,383	2,826	2,777	2,760	3,338	3,453	2,818	2,762	2,570	·
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	1,030	956	1,518	1,504	2,342	2,794	2,038	2,028	2,811	3,424	2,754	2,629	2,418	·
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	601	467	407	27	29	507	131	138	396	2,637	1,753	1,858	1,859	·
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	110	75	326	337	1,179	1,121	1,211	1,393	1,663	181	58	61	49	·
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	1,420	1,436	1,066	1,070	42	32	740	732	527	29	63	133	152	·
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	24	23	5	8	11	0	363	363	500	0	30	98	123	·
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)	·	389	400	267	433	455	−585	−632	20	828	132	1,429	1,250	851	·
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	389	400	267	433	455	−585	−632	20	828	132	1,429	1,250	851	·
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	4,112	4,112	4,112	4,112	4,112	3,112	3,112	2,146	2,146	1,446	1,401	1,001	735	·
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	14	10	·
Other Reserves	·	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	·
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	−3,251	−3,240	−3,225	−3,070	−3,052	−3,044	−3,019	−2,122	−1,407	−1,418	−155	74	3	·
Budget sources and other funds	·	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0	0	·
Budget sources and other funds	·	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0	0	·
Minority Interest	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	96	·
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	2,839	2,792	2,850	3,006	2,838	2,241	2,146	2,780	4,166	3,585	4,247	4,013	3,518	·
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	69	97	95	134	128	110	58	50	115	22	18	48	0	·
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	240	240	0	3	5	9	30	38	36	34	29	0	0	·
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	3,935	3,935	3,935	3,935	3,112	3,112	3,112	2,146	2,146	1,446	1,401	1,001	735	·
Good will (Bn. VND)	·	83	104	125	146	167	178	199	0	0	0	0	0	0	·
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	29	29	−118	−108	−103	−130	−185	−85	9	23	107	95	0	·

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.42 · 43rd pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▼ −0.81

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.094

GMI

0.605

AQI

0.832

SGI

1.015

DEPI

0.882

SGAI

1.389

TATA

0.072

LVGI

1.058

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 19.2%90th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: 0.79×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

−0.66

Distress Zone

Sharpe

−2.54

Negative

Composite

30 to 49

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✓Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden1.01×Interest Burden−0.31×Op. Margin−0.03×Turnover0.44×Leverage7.29=ROE2.7%

Price Risk

Momentum

−41.2%

Volatility

35.2%

Max Drawdown

−70.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

37.43P/E

P/B: 1.15
P/S: 0.33
ROE: 3.0%
ROA: 0.4%
EPS: 28
BVPS: 916
Gross Margin: 17.1%
Net Margin: 0.8%
D/E: 1.61
Current Ratio: 1.53
Rev Growth: +0.1%
Profit Growth: +143.9%
EV/EBITDA: 25.70
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 394M
Charter Capital: 3,935B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3): Lâm nghiệp và Giấy
Sub-industry: Lâm sản và Chế biến gỗ
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Shareholder structure

Shareholders

Đinh Thị Kim Dung

Indiv

9.1%

37.6M

2022-12-20

Công ty Cổ Phần Xây Dựng U&i

Inst

7.1%

29.0M

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Thị Xuân

Indiv

5.7%

8.0M

2015-08-28

Phương Xuân Thụy

Indiv

5.0%

7.0M

2014-12-31

Công ty Cổ Phần Logistics U&I

Inst

4.4%

3.2M

2026-06-30

Vũ Xuân Dương

Indiv

1.8%

7.0M

2026-06-30

Mai Hữu Tín

Indiv

1.3%

5.3M

2026-06-30

Đào Thụy Phương Thảo

Indiv

1.3%

5.0M

2026-06-30

Võ Quốc Lợi

Indiv

1.1%

4.3M

2026-06-30

Liam Pius Cully

Indiv

0.8%

1.1M

2007-12-31

Công ty Cổ Phần Đồng Tâm Dotalia

Inst

0.6%

2.2M

2022-04-06

Võ Diệp Văn Tuấn

Indiv

0.5%

650,017

2016-08-31

Đoàn Thuỵ Diễm Huyền

Indiv

0.3%

1.1M

2026-06-30

Ngô Thị Hồng Thu

Indiv

0.1%

200,001

2014-04-14

Board & Management

Vũ Xuân Dương1.8%

Vice Chairman of Management Board

Mai Hữu Tín1.3%

Chairman of Management Board

Võ Quốc Lợi1.1%

Member of Management Board

Đoàn Thuỵ Diễm Huyền0.3%

Independent Member of Management Board

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

12-month sector-relative outlook

Valuation Breakdown

TTF among Cyclicals

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Ownership network

TTF among Cyclicals