TOW
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Trà Nóc - Ô Môn
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 32.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 37.762
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.0045th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.9%56th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The firm's Beneish M-Score is -1.6213 (77th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.21, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and moving toward greater aggressiveness. Key contributors to the M-Score are a high DSRI (1.7627) and elevated AQI (1.1843), while accruals quality is strong (96.1/100) but receivables quality scores zero (0.0/100). Solvency and bankruptcy-distance indicators are healthy: Altman Z-Score 9.18 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score is neutral at 4/9, and FY2025 statutory loss tests do not apply to its UPCoM listing.
- Beneish M-Score -1.6213 (77th percentile among Vietnamese peers): the score is above many local peers and moved +0.21 year-over-year; the percentile and increase suggest relative upward pressure on the manipulation-risk composite vs the Vietnamese universe (note: the -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated).
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivables Index) = 1.7627: this measures the change in receivables relative to sales and a value substantially above 1 signals receivables growing faster than sales, consistent with weaker collection or revenue recognition timing.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.1843: this measures increases in non-current/non-operating assets (capitalized costs, other receivables, long-term assets) and a value >1 indicates rising asset-side items that can be used to manage earnings.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.9% of total assets (56th percentile): the formal score is minimal and the schedule shows some receivables/prepayments/loans outside the trade cycle, which may reduce the quality of reported revenue/receivables.
- Margin quality = 45.8/100: indicates operating margin components are less consistent with high-quality earnings.
- TATA (Total Accruals) = 0.0098: while this is small, combined with weak receivables quality and DSRI it suggests accruals aren't the primary mover but other areas (receivables/asset composition) are.
- Accruals quality = 96.1/100: this metric measures the extent to which earnings are driven by accruals versus cash; a high score implies reported profits are supported by cash flow rather than large non-cash accruals.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3 years) = 1.00 (45th percentile): this ratio equals one over the three-year window, indicating three-year operating cash roughly matches reported profit on aggregate (not excessively divergent).
- Altman Z-Score = 9.18 (safe zone): the Z-Score measures distance to bankruptcy using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity ratios; 9.18 is in the safe/low-bankruptcy-risk range.
- No accumulated losses and zero consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive: these are straightforward balance-sheet and profit-history facts supportive of solvency.
Control is concentrated: CTW (Công ty Cổ phần Cấp thoát nước Cần Thơ) holds 65.4% (disclosed 2026-06-30), giving a single controlling shareholder. Other top holders are individuals with much smaller stakes (5.1%, 2.4%, 0.7%, 0.7%). No director-deal registrations were provided in the data supplied.
- Compare the FY2025 note on trade and other receivables to the related-party disclosures and the long-term receivables schedule to quantify the 2.9% of total assets labeled as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the DSRI driver: compare year-over-year revenue (sales) and the trade receivables aging/sales reconciliation to see why DSRI = 1.7627 (receivables growth vs sales growth).
- Inspect the fixed/other asset rollforward or 'changes in other non-current assets' note that feeds the AQI to identify whether increases reflect capital expenditures, capitalized costs, or related-party balances.
- Compare consolidated operating cash flow and parent net profit line items across the three-year window to confirm the cash-conversion ratio of 1.00 and to see timing differences within the three years.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.33
- P/S
- 2.49
- ROE
- 19.5%
- ROA
- 17.5%
- EPS
- 4.687
- BVPS
- 24.738
- Gross Margin
- 55.5%
- Net Margin
- 35.4%
- D/E
- 0.07
- Current Ratio
- 2.21
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.19
- Div Yield
- 9.2%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 8.0M
- Charter Capital
- 79.8B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Nước & Khí đốt
- Sub-industry
- Nước
- Company Type
- CT