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VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT
39.000
VND · Close 28 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+22.1%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
39.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
47.613

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.110
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.97%
Ke
11.97%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
11.97%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→39.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+22.1%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
47.613
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.97%high risk: no
Growth rate3.50%growth method: default
Base cash flow103.4 tỷone off strip ratio: 0.04

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
10.0%51.55251.55251.55252.58752.587
11.0%50.79350.79350.79350.79350.793
12.0%47.77647.77647.89150.79350.793
13.0%47.61347.61347.61347.61347.776
14.0%47.61347.61347.61347.61347.613
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·576516378343407263395420446688704543490···
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·535652517083541759193107166195···
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·474437276239270157165961942121949424···
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·4623475255216540603611011064···
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.8212455250.319453···
Net Inventories
·0.3031112111110101339293167205···
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·0.3031112111110101339293167205···
Other current assets
·30.10.10.10.40.600.020.280.461···
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000001.01···
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·620668818837779845700712579541538478474···
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·16712177190236294253···
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·6666660000000···
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·29341417202422314130325996···
Tangible fixed assets
·29341417202422314130322651···
Intagible fixed assets
·0000.030.070.030.10.20.030.070.042326···
Investment in properties
·143176198235229232262186219187208173126···
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·1411562882722222672632901701601247170···
Investments in associate companies
·1281281281171321672052221351271045456···
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·19424236323026261717201815···
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−7−14−12−7−6−6−4−3−2−5−0.1−2−2···
Other non-current assets
·165168175177188180153141141137140133130···
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·165168173175185175151139136131140133121···
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,1961,1831,1961,1801,1851,1081,0951,1331,0251,2291,2421,022964···
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·348350365351367355336357333663625437400···
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·92898188757181968642620518798···
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·00005002152231514···
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·20.000.10.090.10.000.61208,2170.10.040.024···
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·256261284263292284255262247237420249302···
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0000160013011036963···
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·848833831829818753760775691566616585564···
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·848833831829818753760775691566616585564···
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·300300300300300300300264264240240240240···
Other Reserves
·00000009000000···
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·1511511511511511511511471411381319996···
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·22621120920719613013715716996152127131···
Minority Interest
·00000000000.20.20.2···
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,1961,1831,1961,1801,1851,1081,0951,1331,0251,2291,2421,022964···
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·03017000000000···
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·300300300300300300300264264240240240240···
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
58
Fair
Accrual Quality
97
Cash Conversion
74
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.69 · 75th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.37
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.790
GMI
0.903
AQI
0.922
SGI
1.111
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.900
TATA
0.008
LVGI
1.014

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.0246th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.5%25th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.689 (Vietnam peer percentile 75th) with a year-over-year rise of +1.37, signalling that the firm’s accounting is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that accounting signals have moved materially this year. The DSRI component is high at 1.7899 (possible widening of days’ sales receivable relative to sales), while accrual-based metrics look mixed: accruals quality is strong (96.9/100) but receivables quality and revenue quality score 0/100. At the same time, solvency and operational fundamental indicators are healthy: Altman Z-Score 3.55 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score 8/9 (strong). Statutory loss tests show none met in the audited FY2025 statements.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.689 (Beneish cutoff -1.78 is US-based); Vietnam peer percentile 75th — this percentile shows the company’s M-Score is higher (more aggressive) than 75% of Vietnamese non-financial peers.
  • M-Score year-over-year change = +1.37 — a sizeable upward move in the M-Score compared with the prior year, indicating accounting signals shifted materially this year.
  • DSRI = 1.7899 — Days’ Sales Receivable Index above 1 suggests receivables grew faster than sales, which can indicate extended credit terms, slower collections, or revenue recognition timing effects.
  • Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — these specific earnings-quality sub-scores flag concerns about the composition or sustainability of reported revenue and the recoverability/timing of receivables.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.02 (46th percentile) — relatively low percentile implies profits are not converting to cash any better than about half of peers; combined with weak receivables/revenue scores, this elevates scrutiny on cash realization of sales.
  • LVGI = 1.0142 and SGI = 1.1109 — modest revenue growth (SGI>1) with some leverage on inventory/working capital (LVGI>1) can amplify the effect of aggressive revenue recognition if present.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 96.9/100 — accrual components (non-cash adjustments) appear high-quality in the scoring model used, suggesting low unusual accruals relative to peers.
  • TATA = 0.0077 — Total Accruals to Total Assets is small (0.77%), supporting the high accruals-quality score.
  • GMI = 0.9026 and SGAI = 0.8999 — Gross Margin Index <1 and SGA index <1 indicate margins and selling/general admin costs have not deteriorated year-over-year by the amounts that often precede aggressive reporting.
  • Altman Z-Score = 3.55 — places the company in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance by Altman’s model.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 8/9 — strong fundamentals on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operational efficiency under Piotroski’s tests.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated among institutions: CHOLIMEX 20.1%, Tanimex 17.3%, Minh Phat 11.0%, Hưng Phát 6.7%, plus an individual with 9.7%. This majority institutional block structure indicates a few large shareholders control a substantial portion of equity. Director-deal registrations for 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 2 sale registrations (2 traders; 300,000 shares) and 2 purchase registrations (2 traders; 100,000 shares; one purchase without a volume), and these are registered intentions with the exchange rather than executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 and FY2024 schedules/notes for trade receivables and non-trade receivables: reconcile the components that produce the DSRI = 1.7899 and the receivables-outside-the-trade-cycle figure (0.5% of total assets).
  • Reconcile operating cash flow versus reported net profit across FY2023–FY2025 to inspect the cash conversion ratio = 1.02 (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) and identify the items preventing profit from converting to cash.
  • Inspect the revenue recognition note, sales cut-off and related-party transaction disclosures to understand drivers of Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and SGI = 1.1109 (sales growth) — look for large year-end sales, returns reserves, or related-party sales.
  • Review the notes on prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables to verify the composition that gives Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.5% of total assets and to confirm allowance policies and recoverability.
  • Examine the audited statement conclusions and regulatory notes that confirm none of the statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (amended by Decree 245/2025) were met for FY2025.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.55
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.32
Positive
Composite
56
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.81×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.60×Turnover0.21×Leverage1.41=ROE14.1%
Price Risk
Momentum
+23.2%
Volatility
38.6%
Max Drawdown
−20.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.76P/E
P/B
1.38
P/S
4.74
ROE
14.3%
ROA
10.1%
EPS
3.997
BVPS
28.267
Gross Margin
78.8%
Net Margin
48.6%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
6.28
Rev Growth
+11.1%
Profit Growth
+12.3%
EV/EBITDA
3.85
Div Yield
7.7%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
30.0M
Charter Capital
300B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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