Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 2.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 3.125
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 5.7192nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 22.2%92nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 4.4322 (Vietnam peer percentile 99th) with a year-over-year increase of +6.85, signalling a very large divergence from Vietnamese peers on the indicators Beneish measures. Key earnings-quality metrics are extremely weak: the composite Earnings Quality Score is 10.8/100, with accruals quality 43.3/100 and cash-conversion, receivables, margin and revenue quality all at 0.0/100. At the same time the Altman Z-Score is 29.68 (well inside the ‘safe’ bankruptcy-distance band) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = 4.4322 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation signals); this is at the 99th percentile versus Vietnamese peers, indicating the company scores more aggressively on these accounting ratios than 99% of listed VN non-financials.
- Year-over-year change in M-Score = +6.85 (measures trajectory of the eight-component M-Score); a large positive change shows the accounting signals shifted markedly this year.
- DSRI = 8.2744 (days-sales-receivables index component of the M-Score, measures potential revenue/receivables inflation); this very high DSRI suggests receivables or revenue recognition patterns diverged substantially from sales.
- SGAI = 3.3704 (sales-general-and-administrative index, an M-Score input that can indicate capitalization or expense manipulation); this elevated SGAI points to a big relative rise in SG&A versus sales.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 5.71, 92nd percentile among Vietnamese peers (measures how profit converts to cash); the high percentile indicates profits have not translated into operating cash flow over three years.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 22.2% of total assets, 92nd percentile (measures prepayments, loans receivable and other non-trade receivables); a large share of assets are outside normal trade receivables, which can increase estimation and related-party risk.
- Earnings-quality component totals: Revenue quality = 0.0/100, Margin quality = 0.0/100, Receivables quality = 0.0/100, Cash conversion = 0.0/100 (these individual zeros indicate the scoring model found acute weaknesses across multiple dimensions of reported earnings).
- Altman Z-Score = 29.68 (measures financial distress/bankruptcy probability); a very high score places the company well into the ‘safe’ zone on this metric.
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (measures fundamental financial strength via profitability, leverage, liquidity and operating efficiency); a middling score indicates neither clear operational deterioration nor strong improvement.
- Accumulated losses: none (undistributed earnings are positive) and owner's equity excluding minority interest is positive (these are balance-sheet facts implying no statutory equity impairment).
- Statutory loss tests: none met per Decree 155/2020 Art. 120(1)(e) as amended by Decree 245/2025 (the audited annual statements do not meet the exchange’s published tests for listing cancellation).
Ownership is relatively concentrated in nearby insiders/individuals: the largest shareholder, Lê Việt Hùng, holds 15.8%, and three other named parties/institutions hold between 4.8%–4.9%. No state-owned controlling shareholder is recorded in the top five; concentrated individual holdings can increase related-party and intra-group transaction prominence in disclosures.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) on trade and non-trade receivables to the balance-sheet line 'long-term receivables' and quantify the composition (prepayments to suppliers vs. loans to related parties).
- Reconcile operating cash flow (cash-flow statement) for FY2023–FY2025 with reported net profit in each year to reproduce the 3-year cash-conversion ratio and identify major reconciling items (changes in receivables, prepayments, payables, provisions).
- Inspect the related-party transactions and note disclosures for FY2025 for any large balances or terms (interest, maturities) linked to the 22.2% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Review the SG&A schedule and revenue breakdown in FY2025 to see drivers of the SGAI = 3.3704 (whether SG&A rose absolutely, or sales fell) and any one-off reclassifications referenced in the notes.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.22
- P/S
- 1.71
- ROE
- 0.6%
- ROA
- 0.5%
- EPS
- 60
- BVPS
- 10.714
- Gross Margin
- 0.9%
- Net Margin
- 4.3%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 111.81
- Rev Growth
- −65.8%
- Profit Growth
- +213.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 21.0M
- Charter Capital
- 210B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT