Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 15.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 17.366
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Medium
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 39.7%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Banks peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Estimates a fair price-to-book (P/B) multiple from how the market prices listed peer banks on their book value and returns. ROE, asset size, a bad-loan indicator and credit growth are weighed together to place this bank among its peers.
Technical details
A bank's free cash flow does not mean what it means for an ordinary company. Book value, ROE and asset quality give a better frame of reference for valuing a bank.
A robust (Huber) multivariate regression estimates P/B from 3-year average ROE, log total assets, a bad-loan indicator and 3-year credit growth, after limiting extreme observations. Only banks the market prices on their earnings enter the fit (positive ROE, P/B at most 3.0×). The fitted P/B is multiplied by book value per share. A weak fit (R² below 0.4), a fit where higher ROE does not mean a higher P/B, and large state-owned banks use the peer median P/B adjusted for ROE.
Commercial banks where book value represents real economic assets and ROE reflects sustainable profitability.
- Valuation method
- Peer regression
- Bank peer-model fit (R²)
- 0.4578
- Fit observations
- 25
R² describes how well the shared bank-peer regression explains P/B variation in its fitted sample. Banks using the same regression share this statistic. Forecast performance is evaluated separately through backtests.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/E
- 9.48
- ROE
- 14.6%
- ROA
- 1.5%
- EPS
- 1.937
- BVPS
- 14.191
- Net Margin
- 39.0%
- Rev Growth
- +18.6%
- Profit Growth
- +14.4%
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 3,469M
- Charter Capital
- 34,688B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Ngân hàng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Ngân hàng
- Sub-industry
- Ngân hàng
- Company Type
- NH