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VietnamConstructionHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpVận tảiHNXCT
10.600
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+27.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
10.600
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
13.479

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→44.26B
Fair EV/EBITDA→4.0x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→10.600
Calibrated value vs last close→+27.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
13.479
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA44.3 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·47455660555047575952698862··
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·8491612732151023357··
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·18162827242113222622253236··
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·20.230.610.20.050.0610.10.081515··
Net Inventories
·20241715172024161716211918··
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·20241715172024161716211918··
Other current assets
·2121127160.640.411··
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000000.3··
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·176181201205213237258283119129566068··
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.090.100.100.100.100.10.10.10.10.40.20.20··
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.010.20.20.20.04··
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·132157157181192217246272107122485155··
Tangible fixed assets
·132157157181192217246272107122485154··
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0000000000004··
Investments in associate companies
·0000000000004··
Other non-current assets
·3124262215201210127878··
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·3124262215191210116778··
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·223225258265268287305339178181126148129··
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·1191281631641701952152508893426550··
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·8484100887788921173027305550··
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·433735343340418277083··
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.7130.60.843240.13725··
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·3544627792107123132596612100.05··
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1829476277921061214855000··
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·1049795101989290908988848379··
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1049795101989290908988848379··
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·56565656565656565656565656··
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·19191919191919191919191915··
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·2417152018121099832−1··
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·223225258265268287305339178181126148129··
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·56565656565656565656565656··

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
61
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
34
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
31

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Remainder
M −2.49 · 39th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.94
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.141
GMI
0.791
AQI
1.885
SGI
0.965
DEPI
0.853
SGAI
1.168
TATA
−0.072
LVGI
0.916

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
4.5290th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.9%35th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.13
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.03
Positive
Composite
77
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.04×Turnover1.65×Leverage2.14=ROE10.4%
Price Risk
Momentum
+2.1%
Volatility
33.2%
Max Drawdown
−25.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.66P/E
P/B
0.59
P/S
0.17
ROE
10.7%
ROA
4.8%
EPS
1.945
BVPS
18.759
Gross Margin
14.3%
Net Margin
2.9%
D/E
0.59
Current Ratio
0.57
Rev Growth
−3.5%
Profit Growth
+183.1%
EV/EBITDA
2.63
Div Yield
4.5%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
5.6M
Charter Capital
55.7B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Dịch vụ vận tải
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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