Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 11.150
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 13.006
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −5.305th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 15.2%87th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5793 (78th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of -1.81, indicating a material shift in the scoring components relative to peers rather than a US-calibrated absolute breach (the -1.78 US cutoff is not decisive in the VN context). Other signals: an Altman Z-Score of 1.67 places the company in the distress zone for bankruptcy distance, the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral), and the Earnings-Quality composite is weak at 33.1/100 driven by extremely poor cash-conversion and margin/revenue components while accruals and receivables quality look better.
- M-Score: -1.5793, Vietnam peer percentile 78th — this percentile indicates more aggressive accounting metrics than most Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change -1.81 signals that the M-Score moved materially this year (note the US -1.78 benchmark is from a different sample and ~28% of Vietnamese firms cross it).
- Altman Z-Score: 1.67 — in the traditional Altman classification this is in the 'distress' zone, implying limited cushion against insolvency risks measured by the Z components.
- Earnings-Quality sub-scores: Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Margin quality 0.0/100 and Revenue quality 0.0/100 — these three zeros indicate operating cash generation, margins and revenue persistence/quality are weak or did not meet the scoring thresholds used here.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit): -5.30, ranked at the 5th percentile among Vietnamese non-financial companies — net profit is not converting into operating cashflow over three years.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle: 15.2% of total assets, 87th percentile — a high share of receivables/prepayments/loans-receivable classified outside the ordinary trade cycle, which can require scrutiny under VAS for related-party or long-term financing arrangements.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.1280 and AQI (1.1809) — the accruals component is elevated enough to depress accruals quality relative to peers (accruals quality score 52.5/100).
- Receivables quality: 100.0/100 — within the scoring framework used, receivables behavior (days, growth pattern, allowances) did not signal aggressive recognition problems.
- DSRI (days sales in receivables index) = 0.6328 — a DSRI below 1 indicates receivables relative to sales are not inflating compared with the prior period.
- SGAI = 0.6976 — selling, general & admin expense index below 1 suggests SGA costs did not accelerate relative to sales in the way that can signal margin manipulation.
- LVGI = 1.0322 and SGI = 1.6125 show growth dynamics (sales growth index >1) but the company’s accruals and cash conversion scores imply the growth is not translating into cash — growth itself can be a legitimate business pattern but is a driver of some M-Score components.
- No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minorities) positive; parent net loss consecutive years = 0 — the statutory balance-sheet and retained-earnings position do not show the company failing the listed-company loss tests in FY2025.
Ownership is concentrated: an individual, Nguyễn Văn Đạt, holds 29.5% and the related corporate holder Phát Đạt Holdings holds 8.6%, while institutional investor ACA Vietnam Real Estate III LP holds 3.7%. Director-deal registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 show 1 sale registration and 13 purchase registrations (11 registrants; 51,479,100 shares) — these are exchange registrations of intent, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 consolidated operating cash flow and parent net profit lines and the cash-flow note to reconcile the -5.30 three-year operating-cash/earnings ratio (look at the consolidated cashflow statement and the management discussion on cashflow).
- Inspect the notes to receivables and other assets for FY2025: identify the composition of the 15.2% 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables) and the related-party disclosure lines.
- Reconcile total accruals: compare the change in working-capital and non-cash adjustments to the TATA = 0.1280 reported (see the reconciliation in the cashflow statement and the accounting-policy notes for accrual recognition).
- Review the revenue recognition policy, revenue roll-forwards and segment disclosures to understand why revenue- and margin-quality scores are 0.0/100 (check for one-off sales, related-party revenue, timing policy or significant adjustments in the revenue note).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.91
- P/S
- 8.51
- ROE
- 4.4%
- ROA
- 2.0%
- EPS
- 516
- BVPS
- 12.400
- Gross Margin
- 54.4%
- Net Margin
- 38.8%
- D/E
- 0.45
- Current Ratio
- 2.36
- Rev Growth
- +61.2%
- Profit Growth
- +232.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 34.97
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 998M
- Charter Capital
- 9,978B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT