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PDR

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Bất động sản Phát Đạt

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT
11.150
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.6%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
11.150
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
13.006

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.210
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.41%
Ke
12.41%
x
E/(D+E)
69.14%
+
Kd(1-t)
4.48%
x
D/(D+E)
30.86%
=
WACC
10.00%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→11.150
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.6%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
13.006
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)12.00%high risk: yes
Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow506.0 tỷone off strip ratio: 1.39

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
10.0%12.43412.43412.43412.43412.765
11.0%11.08611.08611.21812.43412.434
12.0%11.08611.08611.08611.08611.086
13.0%11.08611.08611.08611.08611.086
14.0%11.08611.08611.08611.08611.086
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·24,17621,48316,91618,21715,33710,92910,3558,0507,8608,1016,7455,6495,363··
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·376344505262494536461891441493287··
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·011515922120000000··
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·7,0006,8614,1155,6502,5331,5161,7051,9881,579591666224184··
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·4,0803,0608859767561,0717557596901712257742··
Net Inventories
·16,71514,07812,20012,18112,1929,3317,9955,8666,0907,3566,0355,4135,164··
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·16,71514,07812,20012,18112,1929,3317,9955,8666,0907,3566,0355,4135,164··
Other current assets
·8585821149617874741347··
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000.00000000.01··
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·3,0952,5034,1514,6275,2154,6883,6073,0072,089902796404295··
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·76397337321,8319881,5661,2191,4592821751040··
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·41397337328039381,4661,0821,300261166900··
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·7337442738140341811820.40.8197··
Tangible fixed assets
·333344233013034179320.40.82··
Intagible fixed assets
·40140148100.4125000.01118··
Investment in properties
·62636566686975821881941181180··
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·711381,2021,7761,1291,734603453463469745··
Investments in associate companies
·711351,1991,7731,1271,734302942943469745··
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·000000005151000··
Other non-current assets
·9791,0859559621,0869651,033923221719153··
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·9799849479541,0859651,03392321161713··
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·27,27023,98621,06822,84320,55215,61713,96111,0579,9499,0027,5416,0535,658··
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·14,84612,92711,48813,58312,40710,4239,5927,5467,1226,5995,2704,5854,230··
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·10,2588,5629,17711,0298,7314,3863,0737921,0811,6781,5341,127676··
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·1,1061,3838152,6688071,4141,202047434506613206··
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·23813441,2391,6926206511070161734896308··
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·4,5894,3652,3112,5543,6766,0376,5206,7546,0414,9203,7363,4583,554··
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·4,4383,9612,2901,7722,620485970002,8072,2442,1572,567··
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·12,42411,0599,5799,2618,1455,1944,3693,5122,8272,4042,2711,4681,428··
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·12,42411,0599,5799,2618,1455,1944,3693,5122,8272,4042,2711,4681,428··
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·9,9788,7317,3886,7164,9283,9623,2772,6642,2202,0182,0181,3021,302··
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·24824423020717915513812510385767349··
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·1,7361,9551,8321,1551,8759748716464932891658140··
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·27,27023,98621,06822,84320,55215,61713,96111,0579,9499,0027,5416,0535,658··
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·35000000000000··
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·9,9788,7317,3886,7164,9283,9623,2772,6642,2202,0182,0181,3021,302··
Good will (Bn. VND)
·0000000000200··
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·5158581,1101,091927265000.0100··

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
33
Weak
Accrual Quality
53
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.58 · 78th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −1.81
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.633
GMI
0.893
AQI
1.181
SGI
1.612
DEPI
1.307
SGAI
0.698
TATA
0.128
LVGI
1.032

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−5.305th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
15.2%87th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5793 (78th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of -1.81, indicating a material shift in the scoring components relative to peers rather than a US-calibrated absolute breach (the -1.78 US cutoff is not decisive in the VN context). Other signals: an Altman Z-Score of 1.67 places the company in the distress zone for bankruptcy distance, the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral), and the Earnings-Quality composite is weak at 33.1/100 driven by extremely poor cash-conversion and margin/revenue components while accruals and receivables quality look better.

Red Flags
  • M-Score: -1.5793, Vietnam peer percentile 78th — this percentile indicates more aggressive accounting metrics than most Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change -1.81 signals that the M-Score moved materially this year (note the US -1.78 benchmark is from a different sample and ~28% of Vietnamese firms cross it).
  • Altman Z-Score: 1.67 — in the traditional Altman classification this is in the 'distress' zone, implying limited cushion against insolvency risks measured by the Z components.
  • Earnings-Quality sub-scores: Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Margin quality 0.0/100 and Revenue quality 0.0/100 — these three zeros indicate operating cash generation, margins and revenue persistence/quality are weak or did not meet the scoring thresholds used here.
  • Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit): -5.30, ranked at the 5th percentile among Vietnamese non-financial companies — net profit is not converting into operating cashflow over three years.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle: 15.2% of total assets, 87th percentile — a high share of receivables/prepayments/loans-receivable classified outside the ordinary trade cycle, which can require scrutiny under VAS for related-party or long-term financing arrangements.
  • TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.1280 and AQI (1.1809) — the accruals component is elevated enough to depress accruals quality relative to peers (accruals quality score 52.5/100).
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality: 100.0/100 — within the scoring framework used, receivables behavior (days, growth pattern, allowances) did not signal aggressive recognition problems.
  • DSRI (days sales in receivables index) = 0.6328 — a DSRI below 1 indicates receivables relative to sales are not inflating compared with the prior period.
  • SGAI = 0.6976 — selling, general & admin expense index below 1 suggests SGA costs did not accelerate relative to sales in the way that can signal margin manipulation.
  • LVGI = 1.0322 and SGI = 1.6125 show growth dynamics (sales growth index >1) but the company’s accruals and cash conversion scores imply the growth is not translating into cash — growth itself can be a legitimate business pattern but is a driver of some M-Score components.
  • No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minorities) positive; parent net loss consecutive years = 0 — the statutory balance-sheet and retained-earnings position do not show the company failing the listed-company loss tests in FY2025.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: an individual, Nguyễn Văn Đạt, holds 29.5% and the related corporate holder Phát Đạt Holdings holds 8.6%, while institutional investor ACA Vietnam Real Estate III LP holds 3.7%. Director-deal registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 show 1 sale registration and 13 purchase registrations (11 registrants; 51,479,100 shares) — these are exchange registrations of intent, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 consolidated operating cash flow and parent net profit lines and the cash-flow note to reconcile the -5.30 three-year operating-cash/earnings ratio (look at the consolidated cashflow statement and the management discussion on cashflow).
  • Inspect the notes to receivables and other assets for FY2025: identify the composition of the 15.2% 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables) and the related-party disclosure lines.
  • Reconcile total accruals: compare the change in working-capital and non-cash adjustments to the TATA = 0.1280 reported (see the reconciliation in the cashflow statement and the accounting-policy notes for accrual recognition).
  • Review the revenue recognition policy, revenue roll-forwards and segment disclosures to understand why revenue- and margin-quality scores are 0.0/100 (check for one-off sales, related-party revenue, timing policy or significant adjustments in the revenue note).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.67
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−2.09
Negative
Composite
43
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✗No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden0.89×Op. Margin0.55×Turnover0.05×Leverage2.19=ROE4.1%
Price Risk
Momentum
−53.3%
Volatility
28.2%
Max Drawdown
−54.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
21.89P/E
P/B
0.91
P/S
8.51
ROE
4.4%
ROA
2.0%
EPS
516
BVPS
12.400
Gross Margin
54.4%
Net Margin
38.8%
D/E
0.45
Current Ratio
2.36
Rev Growth
+61.2%
Profit Growth
+232.1%
EV/EBITDA
34.97
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
998M
Charter Capital
9,978B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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