Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 711
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
Also note
- The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 16.9%88th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.04×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 4Statutory test met
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.05 (84th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of -4.01, indicating its pattern of accounting accruals and growth metrics is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially year-on-year. Beneish components show very high sales growth (SGI 3.5634) and elevated leverage/growth signals (LVGI 0.6767) but low indicators of asset quality erosion (AQI 1.0031, TATA -0.0326). Complementary signals are mixed: Altman Z-Score 2.82 (grey zone) while Piotroski F-Score is a strong 9/9; earnings-quality sub-scores flag extremely weak margin- and revenue-quality (0/100 each) but perfect accruals, cash-conversion and receivables scores (100/100 each).
- M-Score -1.05 (84th percentile among Vietnamese peers; a higher percentile indicates more aggressive accounting relative to peers) and a year-over-year change of -4.01 (a large trajectory change versus the prior year).
- DSRI 0.2736: days sales receivable index well below 1, which can indicate an unusual change in the timing/recognition of sales or receivables relative to prior year (this component measures changes in receivables relative to sales).
- SGI 3.5634: sales growth index >> 1 (measures sales growth; very high growth can pressure managers to manage earnings).
- LVGI 0.6767: leverage and growth index > 0.5 (measures change in leverage and current liabilities relative to assets and prior-year growth).
- Cash-conversion (3-year OCF / net profit) = -15.66 (2nd percentile among VN non-financials): operating cash flow is far lower than reported net profit over three years, signalling profits are not converting to cash.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 15.8% of total assets (88th percentile): a high share of prepayments/loans/long-term receivables relative to assets, which can reflect related-party financing, long collection profiles or non-trade claims.
- Earnings-quality sub-scores: Margin quality = 0/100 and Revenue quality = 0/100 (these measure stability/quality of margins and the sustainability/quality of reported revenue).
- Accruals quality 100/100 and TATA -0.0326: total accruals are small/benign (TATA measures total accruals scaled by assets), indicating reported earnings are not driven by large accrual expansions.
- Cash conversion quality 100/100 despite the 3-year aggregate cash-conversion metric: the earnings-quality framework found current-year cash-flow indicators strong (this sub-score measures year-level cash collection patterns).
- Receivables quality 100/100, yet 15.8% of assets outside the trade cycle: while the composition of receivables is notable, their stated quality metrics are high (receivables-quality scoring measures impairment and aging patterns used in the score).
- Piotroski F-Score 9/9: all nine fundamental checks (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency) pass, indicating strong accounting-side fundamentals by that metric.
- AQI 1.0031 (≈1): asset quality index near 1 (measures change in receivables, inventory and PPE relative to assets) — not indicating large unexplained asset write-ups in the Beneish component.
Ownership is concentrated among individuals: Tạ Hữu Khôi holds 12.9% and Nguyễn Thị Dậu holds 10.0%; the largest institutional holder is Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư TTN Việt Nam at 4.2%. No state ownership is indicated in the top holdings list provided; this structure indicates meaningful insider/individual control but not single majority control.
- Compare the 2021 line-item for 'Loans and receivables' and 'Prepayments' in the balance sheet with the related-party disclosures and the notes describing their terms and maturities.
- Reconcile operating cash flow (cash flow statement) with net profit for FY2019–FY2021 to see the components driving the 3-year cash-conversion ratio of -15.66 (check depreciation, working-capital changes and one-off items).
- Inspect the revenue notes and segment disclosures for FY2021 to verify the sources of the large SGI (sales growth) and to understand recognition policies that underpin the Revenue-quality = 0/100 rating.
- Check the related-party transactions note for any intra-group financing, guarantees or non-trade receivables that could explain the 15.8% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.05
- P/S
- —
- ROE
- −0.4%
- ROA
- −0.4%
- EPS
- −42
- BVPS
- 9.711
- Gross Margin
- 0.0%
- Net Margin
- 0.0%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 15.23
- Profit Growth
- +95.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 17.1M
- Charter Capital
- 171B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng May mặc
- Company Type
- CT