Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 133.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 135.346
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 47%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Consumer peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.8138th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 22.7%92nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple accounting signals consistent with above-peer earnings aggressiveness: a Beneish M-Score of -1.1471 (86th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.26; the DSRI component is elevated at 1.7811 while TATA is 0.1364. At the same time, solvency and reporting stability signals are mixed: an Altman Z-Score of 11.55 (safe zone) and no statutory loss tests met, but a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and an earnings-quality score of 30.7/100 (receivables and revenue quality both 0.0/100) raise concerns about the quality of reported profit.
- Beneish M-Score -1.1471 (86th percentile vs VN peers; YoY change +2.26) — measures likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to peer behavior (higher = more aggressive accounting signals).
- DSRI 1.7811 — Days’ sales receivables index well above 1.0, indicating receivables (or revenue recognition patterns) have grown faster than sales.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle 22.7% of total assets (92nd percentile) — a high share of assets classified as prepayments, loans receivable or other non-trade receivables. This measure flags non-trade receivables concentration.
- Earnings-Quality Score 30.7/100 with Receivables quality 0.0/100 and Revenue quality 0.0/100 — the scoring shows very low quality on revenue and receivable measures.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) 0.81 (38th percentile) — profits are not being converted into cash as strongly as many peers.
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9 — weak fundamental signals across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating performance measures.
- TATA 0.1364 — Total Accruals to Assets shows positive accruals proportion that may reflect earnings driven by accruals rather than cash (this is one component of the M-Score).
- Altman Z-Score 11.55 (safe zone) — indicates distance from bankruptcy/failure on the Z-Score dimensions.
- Margin quality 78.9/100 — reported margins appear relatively stable or credible by the applied metric.
- AQI 0.7340 and LVGI 0.7578 — asset quality and leverage growth indices below 1.0, suggesting some improvement or moderation in asset composition and leverage growth compared with prior periods or thresholds.
- No accumulated losses, owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive, and statutory loss tests: none met — the published statements do not trigger the statutory loss delisting conditions listed (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended).
The shareholder register is concentrated: Masan Consumer Holdings holds 69.4% (institutional controlling stake). Individual holdings are small (largest individual 0.5%). Director-deal disclosures show registrations (not executed trades) for 8 purchase registrations totalling 79,994,090 shares and net registered volume of +6.12% of shares outstanding between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30, indicating insider intent to acquire sizable additional positions on record.
- Compare FY2025 notes/schedules for receivables and prepayments: reconcile the line items “loans receivable”, “prepayments to suppliers” and “other long-term receivables” to the 22.7% of total assets figure.
- Compare the consolidated cash flow statement and the parent profit (net profit) to verify the 3-year cash conversion ratio of 0.81 (operating cash flow / net profit) and trace major cash vs. profit timing differences.
- Review the revenue recognition note and the trade receivables aging/schedule to assess the drivers of DSRI = 1.7811 and the revenue/receivables quality scores of 0.0/100.
- Inspect related-party disclosures and the notes on transactions with the listed group and large shareholder (Masan Consumer Holdings) to see whether receivables, prepayments or loans involve related parties or group entities.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 9.77
- P/S
- 5.78
- ROE
- 46.4%
- ROA
- 21.6%
- EPS
- 5.151
- BVPS
- 13.953
- Gross Margin
- 45.5%
- Net Margin
- 22.1%
- D/E
- 0.52
- Current Ratio
- 1.41
- Rev Growth
- −1.1%
- Profit Growth
- −14.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 22.40
- Div Yield
- 1.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 1,307M
- Charter Capital
- 13,074B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất thực phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Thực phẩm
- Company Type
- CT