LSS

Công ty Cổ phần Mía đường Lam Sơn

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngSản xuất thực phẩmHOSECT

7.750

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+14.7%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 7.750
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 8.888

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

Trading liquidity is low.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Medium; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.788

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.56%

E/(D+E)

64.91%

Kd(1-t)

4.21%

D/(D+E)

35.09%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.29%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→142.59B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→7.750

Calibrated value vs last close→+14.7%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

8.888

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)10.00%

Growth rate5.29%growth method: fundamental firm blend

Base cash flow142.6 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	2.3%	3.8%	5.3%	6.8%	8.3%
8.0%	9.516	9.672	9.672	9.825	9.825
9.0%	9.050	9.050	9.516	9.516	9.516
10.0%	9.050	9.050	9.050	9.050	9.050
11.0%	8.687	8.687	8.687	8.687	9.050
12.0%	8.669	8.669	8.669	8.669	8.687

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

LSS among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, LSS marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is LSS. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	2,069	1,758	1,263	983	930	726	655	914	1,216	857	739	801	708	·	·	·
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	32	63	130	48	49	26	34	31	186	89	19	230	23	·	·	·
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	110	41	30	0	0	0	0	9	47	3	0	0	12	·	·	·
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	252	245	405	122	274	335	350	470	404	268	464	318	245	·	·	·
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	160	146	227	61	165	235	155	207	261	167	260	120	168	·	·	·
Net Inventories	·	1,610	1,368	639	789	548	280	239	350	534	460	211	223	395	·	·	·
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	1,624	1,386	649	794	563	283	241	359	537	463	211	226	395	·	·	·
Other current assets	·	65	42	60	25	59	86	33	54	45	37	45	29	33	·	·	·
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	·	·	·
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	1,283	1,348	1,455	1,509	1,597	1,599	1,564	1,469	1,472	1,605	1,671	1,440	1,475	·	·	·
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.7	33	33	6	0	0.7	0	2	1	5	0.00	0.02	9	·	·	·
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.6	33	33	6	0.02	0.7	0.02	2	1	1	0.03	0.05	9	·	·	·
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	810	856	914	1,051	1,187	1,254	1,104	1,249	1,301	1,404	1,338	1,371	1,395	·	·	·
Tangible fixed assets	·	769	813	869	1,003	1,139	1,219	1,069	1,212	1,264	1,381	1,327	1,289	1,296	·	·	·
Intagible fixed assets	·	41	43	45	47	47	35	35	36	37	23	11	6	19	·	·	·
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	86	56	86	36	36	51	51	31	31	31	129	36	52	·	·	·
Investments in associate companies	·	0	0	0	0	0	15	16	16	15	15	113	20	20	·	·	·
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	15	15	15	15	15	32	·	·	·
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	−0.4	−0.4	−0.4	−0.4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	·	·	·
Goodwill	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	·	·	·
Other non-current assets	·	64	57	60	45	50	49	55	60	63	58	38	34	19	·	·	·
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	64	57	59	41	50	49	55	56	58	46	35	33	19	·	·	·
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	3,352	3,106	2,718	2,492	2,527	2,325	2,219	2,384	2,687	2,462	2,410	2,241	2,183	·	·	·
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	1,539	1,350	1,013	859	923	815	722	888	1,067	825	867	774	882	·	·	·
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	1,512	1,320	949	784	846	732	667	814	984	711	729	716	633	·	·	·
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	1,189	943	776	495	523	476	447	586	818	505	539	512	397	·	·	·
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	63	119	52	63	113	111	13	44	4	6	56	0.4	26	·	·	·
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	27	30	64	74	77	83	56	74	83	115	138	58	249	·	·	·
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	6	6	6	6	6	5	0	6	7	43	76	2	200	·	·	·
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	1,813	1,756	1,705	1,634	1,604	1,510	1,497	1,496	1,621	1,636	1,543	1,467	1,289	·	·	·
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	1,810	1,741	1,687	1,610	1,575	1,484	1,472	1,467	1,585	1,588	1,495	1,467	1,289	·	·	·
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	857	801	745	745	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	500	·	·	·
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	622	611	602	599	595	598	595	593	590	578	568	507	491	·	·	·
Other Reserves	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.06	0.1	0.1	0.1	1.0	0.1	·	·	·
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	103	107	120	46	61	36	26	5	83	97	46	13	54	·	·	·
Budget sources and other funds	·	3	15	19	24	29	26	25	29	36	48	47	0	0.5	·	·	·
Budget sources and other funds	·	0	0	0	1	9	5	1	2	9	10	5	0	0.5	·	·	·
Minority Interest	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.4	12	·	·	·
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	3,352	3,106	2,718	2,492	2,527	2,325	2,219	2,384	2,687	2,462	2,410	2,241	2,183	·	·	·
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.3	0	0	0	0	0	2	83	33	39	0	0	0	·	·	·
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	·	·	·
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	857	801	745	745	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	700	500	·	·	·
Good will (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0.8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	·	·	·
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	36	31	28	28	27	3	3	22	32	32	1	0	0	·	·	·

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.37 · 46th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +0.02

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.248

GMI

0.790

AQI

0.891

SGI

0.823

DEPI

0.425

SGAI

1.029

TATA

0.061

LVGI

1.060

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: −0.8614th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 4.8%66th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.37

Distress Zone

Sharpe

−1.32

Negative

Composite

70 and above

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✓Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✗No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.83×Interest Burden0.99×Op. Margin0.07×Turnover0.66×Leverage1.85=ROE6.8%

Price Risk

Momentum

−10.7%

Volatility

12.0%

Max Drawdown

−13.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

5.92P/E

P/B: 0.39
P/S: 0.32
ROE: 6.7%
ROA: 3.6%
EPS: 1.309
BVPS: 19.741
Gross Margin: 14.8%
Net Margin: 5.6%
D/E: 0.66
Current Ratio: 1.37
Rev Growth: −17.8%
Profit Growth: +18.6%
EV/EBITDA: 5.50
Div Yield: 6.0%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 90.0M
Charter Capital: 900B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3): Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry: Thực phẩm
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Shareholder structure

Shareholders

Hiệp Hội Mía Đường Lam Sơn

Inst

22.0%

19.8M

2026-06-30

Công ty Cổ Phần Thương Mại Và Đầu Tư Thăng Long Hà Nội

Inst

10.5%

9.4M

2026-06-30

Lê Trung Thành

Indiv

5.7%

5.1M

2026-06-30

Lê Văn Tân

Indiv

5.1%

4.5M

2026-06-30

Lê Thị Lộc

Indiv

2.3%

2.1M

2026-06-30

Lê Thanh Tùng

Indiv

0.8%

562,050

2013-12-31

Phùng Thị Tâm

Indiv

0.4%

321,578

2026-06-30

Lê Văn Thanh

Indiv

0.1%

70,312

2014-06-30

Lê Văn Quang

Indiv

0.1%

85,856

2026-06-30

Board & Management

Lê Trung Thành5.7%

Vice Chairman of Management Board

Lê Văn Tân5.1%

Chairman of Management Board

Lê Văn Quang0.1%

Deputy General Director

Phùng Thanh Hải

Member of Management Board

Đỗ Thị Thanh Hà

Chief Accountant/Head of Accounting department

Nguyễn Duy Thành

Deputy General Director

Lê Văn Phương

General Director

Lê Bá Chiều

Deputy General Director

Lê Huy Hùng

Head of Supervisors Board/Person in charge of Corporate governace

Lê Thị Huệ

Member of Management Board/Head of Internal auditor

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: 1 by 1 trader; 800,000 shares
Purchase registrations: None
Registered net, share of outstanding:: −0.89%

Hiệp Hội Mía Đường Lam Sơn
Sale · Institution
800,000
2025-11-07

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

LSS among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

LSS among Consumer