HNG

Công ty Cổ phần Nông nghiệp Quốc tế Hoàng Anh Gia Lai

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngSản xuất thực phẩmUPCOMCT

5.800

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

−18.9%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 5.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 4.701

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Very Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Model Inputs

Base FCF→—

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→5.800

Calibrated value vs last close→−18.9%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

4.701

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)10.00%

Growth rate

Base cash flow

HNG among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, HNG marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is HNG. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	3,121	2,474	2,659	3,039	2,849	6,230	3,872	4,177	4,417	6,475	7,221	5,061	3,343
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	41	70	76	28	30	27	111	72	53	311	332	47	150
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	470	365	601	1,255	1,188	3,912	1,551	2,766	3,316	4,648	3,889	3,716	2,283
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	189	128	277	111	50	47	130	184	736	1,734	2,258	1,661	1,012
Net Inventories	·	2,482	1,937	1,881	1,662	1,557	2,224	2,167	1,295	1,009	1,496	2,966	1,141	798
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	2,507	2,017	1,942	1,685	1,559	2,299	2,187	1,306	1,016	1,789	2,972	1,141	798
Other current assets	·	127	102	101	94	74	67	44	44	39	20	34	158	112
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	108	83
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	16,557	14,221	11,437	9,631	11,168	18,440	19,408	26,354	27,866	28,528	19,881	11,909	9,899
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	2,123	2,035	910	0.2	0.5	7	10	7	2,652	2,525	1,384	280	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	15	0	0	0.2	0.5	7	10	7	646	627	76	280	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	5,690	5,349	5,585	5,247	5,883	9,817	8,518	9,207	6,900	6,849	5,596	10,444	8,771
Tangible fixed assets	·	5,682	5,340	5,576	5,238	5,873	9,424	8,513	9,184	6,870	6,813	5,553	4,136	2,825
Intagible fixed assets	·	8	9	9	10	10	394	5	24	30	36	43	43	0.2
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	356	338	339	331	320	324	318	307	861	896	311	248	210
Investments in associate companies	·	356	338	339	331	320	322	315	299	861	896	272	248	210
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	8	0	0	39	0	0
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	−3	−3	−3	−3	−3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other non-current assets	·	154	169	167	164	169	209	549	4,082	4,104	4,897	1,436	936	917
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	64	72	70	59	55	123	127	942	553	952	945	905	897
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	19,678	16,695	14,096	12,670	14,017	24,670	23,280	30,532	32,282	35,003	27,102	16,971	13,241
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	18,633	15,060	11,840	9,635	8,020	15,990	13,543	19,856	22,129	25,271	17,222	10,080	7,037
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	16,543	14,304	9,609	7,328	4,828	10,979	7,913	8,514	6,601	6,537	7,030	6,293	2,115
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	9,694	9,612	6,211	5,528	3,269	7,297	4,655	5,879	1,725	2,658	3,127	3,739	690
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	3,552	1,994	1,556	716	129	309	197	87	368	255	787	126	102
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	2,090	756	2,231	2,308	3,192	5,011	5,630	11,342	15,528	18,734	10,192	3,787	4,922
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	754	338	2,023	1,820	2,595	4,105	4,550	9,551	12,436	17,433	9,109	3,621	4,779
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	1,045	1,636	2,256	3,034	5,997	8,680	9,738	10,676	10,153	9,732	9,880	6,868	6,182
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	1,045	1,636	2,256	3,034	5,997	8,680	9,738	10,676	10,153	9,732	9,880	6,868	6,182
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	11,086	11,086	11,086	11,086	11,086	11,086	11,086	8,868	7,671	7,671	7,081	3,991	3,991
Difference upon Assets Revaluation	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	443	144	126
Foreign Currency Difference reserve	·	−840	−1,236	−1,898	−2,218	−2,832	−1,270	−203	505	455	545	0	0	0
Other Reserves	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	162	162
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	−10,371	−9,384	−8,102	−7,003	−3,426	−2,306	−2,324	103	911	392	2,127	1,277	609
Minority Interest	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22	22
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	19,678	16,695	14,096	12,670	14,017	24,670	23,280	30,532	32,282	35,003	27,102	16,971	13,241
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	119	0	155	0	77	358	399	266	0	0
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	2,108	2,035	910	0	0	0	0	0	2,006	1,898	1,308	0	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	11,086	11,086	11,086	11,086	11,086	11,086	11,086	8,868	7,671	7,671	7,081	3,991	3,991
Good will (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	31	372	3,089	3,498	3,906	433	0	0
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	0	0	0	0	0	0.3	10	29	51	60	226	0	0

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −3.12 · 12th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +0.21

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.936

GMI

0.000

AQI

1.039

SGI

1.377

DEPI

1.116

SGAI

0.793

TATA

−0.097

LVGI

1.002

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 11.8%83rd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: 0.94×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 5Statutory test met
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

−1.34

Distress Zone

Sharpe

−0.16

Negative

Composite

Below 30

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✗Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✓Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden1.01×Interest Burden5.07×Op. Margin−0.29×Turnover0.03×Leverage18.84=ROE−94.5%

Price Risk

Momentum

+3.4%

Volatility

23.3%

Max Drawdown

−26.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

—P/E

P/B: 6.37
P/S: 9.82
ROE: −73.7%
ROA: −5.4%
EPS: −890
BVPS: 942
Gross Margin: 22.3%
Net Margin: −145.7%
D/E: 10.00
Current Ratio: 0.19
Rev Growth: +37.7%
Profit Growth: +23.6%
EV/EBITDA: 26.64
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 1,109M
Charter Capital: 11,086B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3): Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry: Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Shareholder structure

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Tập Đoàn Trường Hải

Inst

27.6%

306M

2026-06-30

Công ty TNHH Sản Xuất Và Thương Mại Trân Oanh

Inst

5.0%

55.0M

2026-06-30

Trần Bá Dương

Indiv

4.6%

50.8M

2026-06-30

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Quốc tế Hoàng Anh Gia Lai

Inst

3.9%

43.6M

2020-09-30

Vũ Thị Thúy Hương

Indiv

2.6%

23.2M

2018-03-07

Nguyễn Thanh Quang

Indiv

2.6%

23.2M

2018-03-07

Nguyễn Mạnh Hùng

Indiv

2.6%

23.2M

2018-03-07

Nguyễn Hùng Minh

Indiv

1.0%

10.9M

2020-05-26

Board & Management

Trần Bá Dương4.6%

Chairman of Management Board

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: 1 by 1 trader; 91,375,000 shares
Purchase registrations: None
Registered net, share of outstanding:: −8.24%

Công ty Cổ phần Hoàng Anh Gia Lai
Sale · Institution
91,375,000
2026-01-22

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Valuation Breakdown

HNG among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

HNG among Consumer