HLB

Công ty Cổ phần Bia và Nước giải khát Hạ Long

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngUPCOMCT

509.000

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+12.1%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 509.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 570.565

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

Also note

A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.910

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.10%

E/(D+E)

100.00%

Kd(1-t)

0.00%

D/(D+E)

0.00%

WACC

11.10%

Growth Estimate

historical blend10.25%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→186.39B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→509.000

Calibrated value vs last close→+12.1%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

570.565

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)11.10%

Growth rate10.25%growth method: historical blend

Base cash flow186.4 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	7.2%	8.8%	10.3%	11.8%	13.3%
9.1%	624.992	624.992	624.992	624.992	635.224
10.1%	594.360	594.360	594.360	624.992	624.992
11.1%	594.360	594.360	594.360	594.360	594.360
12.1%	583.741	594.360	594.360	594.360	594.360
13.1%	570.565	570.565	583.741	594.360	594.360

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

HLB among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, HLB marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is HLB. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	878	701	530	358	304	186	179	106	97	83	41	27	20
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	249	340	224	162	116	101	6	19	30	57	17	6	2
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	481	227	112	96	50	0	80	50	40	0	9	0	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	64	69	94	40	99	53	74	25	15	16	4	5	1
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	6	9	3	20	24	7	23	2	1	4	2	0.5	0.6
Net Inventories	·	82	65	99	58	38	31	19	11	12	10	11	16	16
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	82	65	99	58	38	31	19	11	12	10	11	16	16
Other current assets	·	1	0.7	0.3	2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.07	0.10	0.09	1	1
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.8	0.7
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	190	162	177	160	212	169	72	86	70	73	88	108	135
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.2	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.2	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	117	125	148	148	195	148	50	53	56	66	82	101	125
Tangible fixed assets	·	116	122	144	147	195	148	49	52	56	66	82	100	121
Intagible fixed assets	·	1	3	4	0.8	0	0	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20	0	0	0	0	0
Other non-current assets	·	47	19	13	12	17	21	23	13	14	7	6	7	10
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	47	19	13	12	17	21	23	13	14	7	6	7	10
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	1,068	863	707	518	516	355	252	192	167	157	129	135	155
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	399	316	267	143	235	150	112	64	51	48	42	61	71
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	378	301	239	115	208	123	89	42	32	30	22	39	51
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	10	0	0	31	0	20	0	0	0	0	0	7
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	100	70	0.2	0.8	61	36	0	0	18	0	0	32	0
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	21	14	28	28	27	27	22	21	19	18	20	21	20
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0.8
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	669	547	440	375	281	205	140	128	117	109	87	75	85
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	669	547	440	375	281	205	140	128	117	109	87	75	85
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	31	31	31	31	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	148	148	148	148	148	90	31	33	33	33	21	20	30
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	469	348	241	176	83	65	59	45	33	26	17	5	4
Minority Interest	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.2	0.2
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	1,068	863	707	518	516	355	252	192	167	157	129	135	155
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	31	31	31	31	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0	0

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

100

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.62 · 32nd pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +0.70

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.797

GMI

0.975

AQI

1.583

SGI

1.167

DEPI

0.965

SGAI

1.142

TATA

−0.062

LVGI

1.014

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 1.6468th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 0.6%26th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

5.09

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.78

Positive

Composite

30 to 49

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.03×Op. Margin0.10×Turnover1.72×Leverage1.60=ROE23.3%

Price Risk

Momentum

+24.8%

Volatility

105.0%

Max Drawdown

−39.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

13.28P/E

P/B: 3.09
P/S: 1.12
ROE: 25.6%
ROA: 16.1%
EPS: 50.319
BVPS: 216.119
Gross Margin: 20.1%
Net Margin: 8.5%
D/E: 0.00
Current Ratio: 2.32
EV/EBITDA: 6.65
Div Yield: 1.6%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 3.1M
Charter Capital: 30.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3): Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry: Sản xuất bia
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Shareholder structure

Shareholders

Aseed Holding Company Limited

Inst

30.4%

940,000

2024-06-30

Phạm Thị Đào

Indiv

23.9%

718,060

2023-12-31

Doãn Thiện Tân

Indiv

19.4%

600,000

2023-12-31

Doãn Trường Giang

Indiv

13.6%

420,209

2025-12-31

Doãn Văn Quang

Indiv

0.7%

22,000

2023-12-31

Nguyễn Thị Trực

Indiv

0.5%

15,830

2025-12-31

Nguyễn Quang Dũng

Indiv

0.3%

9,100

2025-12-31

Vũ Tế Vị

Indiv

0.3%

9,000

2025-12-31

Lê Thanh Nghị

Indiv

0.2%

5,000

2025-12-31

Shunjiro Suga

Indiv

0.1%

3,000

2026-06-30

Board & Management

Doãn Trường Giang13.6%

Member of Management Board/General Director/Director of Business

Nguyễn Thị Trực0.5%

Member of Supervisors Board

Nguyễn Quang Dũng0.3%

Member of Management Board/Chief Financial Officer

Vũ Tế Vị0.3%

Director of Produce

Lê Thanh Nghị0.2%

Member of Management Board/Department Director

Shunjiro Suga0.1%

Chairman of Management Board

Nguyễn Thị Kim Loan

Member of Supervisors Board

Trần Thị Thu Hương

Head of Supervisors Board

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

HLB among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Ownership network

HLB among Consumer