HEC

Công ty Cổ phần Tư vấn xây dựng Thủy Lợi II

VietnamConsumerHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpTư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanhUPCOMCT

27.800

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+24.8%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 27.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 34.694

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.771

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.49%

E/(D+E)

85.13%

Kd(1-t)

8.03%

D/(D+E)

14.87%

WACC

10.12%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→99.27B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→27.800

Calibrated value vs last close→+24.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

34.694

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)10.12%

Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend

Base cash flow99.3 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	1.0%	2.5%	4.0%	5.5%	7.0%
8.1%	37.902	37.902	37.902	37.902	37.902
9.1%	37.902	37.902	37.902	37.902	37.902
10.1%	35.245	35.635	36.742	37.902	37.902
11.1%	35.245	35.245	35.245	35.245	35.245
12.1%	34.694	34.694	34.694	35.245	35.245

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

HEC among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, HEC marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is HEC. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	359	299	303	263	187	181	207	118	125	167	186	168	162
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	179	122	147	97	88	88	106	38	24	60	57	63	76
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	49	57	68	29	1	1	0.8	0	0	20	43	19	39
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	130	118	85	128	90	88	91	71	64	77	65	25	13
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	7	3	3	0.8	3	2	3	3	0.4	26	2	2	0.6
Net Inventories	·	1	1	2	8	6	2	8	8	19	8	19	27	21
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	1	1	2	8	6	2	8	8	19	8	19	27	21
Other current assets	·	0.3	0.6	0.2	0.8	0.8	1	0.9	1.0	18	0.4	2	34	12
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	34	12
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	285	307	335	363	364	389	355	341	220	54	79	79	71
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	5	0.4	9	17	22	29	0	0	0	24	0.03	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	5	0	0	0	0	29	0	0	0	24	0.03	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	280	301	312	329	339	358	354	13	17	20	19	19	10
Tangible fixed assets	·	270	290	301	318	328	346	342	9	13	16	15	13	8
Intagible fixed assets	·	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	4	4	4	4	2	0
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	0	2	2	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	60	60	60
Investments in associate companies	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	60	60	60
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.1	0.1
Other non-current assets	·	0	3	6	10	1	1	0.9	7	4	3	0	0.8	0.9
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	0	3	6	10	1	1	0.9	7	4	3	0	0.7	0.9
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	644	606	638	626	551	570	562	459	345	221	265	247	233
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	152	141	199	224	281	334	373	320	220	97	178	169	160
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	129	89	118	113	141	163	139	109	139	97	124	115	106
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	29	29	29	29	29	31	4	1	5	0	0	0	0
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	40	19	29	33	45	49	62	34	30	34	51	74	79
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	23	52	81	110	139	170	234	211	80	0	54	54	54
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	23	52	81	110	139	170	234	211	80	0	54	54	54
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	492	464	439	402	270	236	190	139	126	124	87	78	73
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	492	464	439	402	270	236	190	139	126	124	87	78	73
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	60	60	60	60	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42
Other Reserves	·	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	4	3
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	83	75	60	56	54	49	46	35	33	29	21	14	12
Other Reserves	·	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	0	0	4	0	0
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	171	155	152	124	95	80	62	21	11	13	20	15	12
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	644	606	638	626	551	570	562	459	345	221	265	247	233
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0.4	9	17	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	60	60	60	60	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	93	89	83	77	74	61	36	36	36	36	0	0	0

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.56 · 35th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▼ −0.57

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.970

GMI

1.126

AQI

0.904

SGI

1.138

DEPI

0.825

SGAI

0.730

TATA

−0.048

LVGI

1.012

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 1.0949th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 1.9%48th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

4.56

Safe Zone

Sharpe

−0.82

Negative

Composite

70 and above

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✓Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✓Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.86×Interest Burden1.05×Op. Margin0.29×Turnover0.39×Leverage1.31=ROE13.2%

Price Risk

Momentum

−45.5%

Volatility

36.1%

Max Drawdown

−61.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.40P/E

P/B: 0.83
P/S: 1.31
ROE: 13.3%
ROA: 8.2%
EPS: 8.592
BVPS: 66.519
Gross Margin: 40.3%
Net Margin: 25.8%
D/E: 0.11
Current Ratio: 2.78
EV/EBITDA: 2.66
Div Yield: 8.2%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 12.0M
Charter Capital: 120B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3): Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh
Sub-industry: Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ KD
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Shareholder structure

Shareholders

Bùi Hữu Quỳnh

Indiv

31.7%

3.8M

2026-06-30

Ngô Thu Hương

Indiv

20.2%

2.4M

2026-09-24

Trần Văn Hiển

Indiv

2.3%

271,520

2026-06-30

Lê Văn Quốc

Indiv

2.1%

255,960

2026-06-30

Bùi Hữu Vũ Hoàng

Indiv

1.7%

201,220

2026-06-30

Ngô Thu Hà

Indiv

0.8%

101,200

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Đức Chiến

Indiv

0.6%

76,260

2026-06-30

Phạm Minh Trí

Indiv

0.6%

68,000

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Quế An

Indiv

0.4%

50,400

2026-09-21

Nguyễn Tiến Đạt

Indiv

0.4%

41,960

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Ngọc Duy

Indiv

0.3%

30,200

2026-09-17

Bùi Lộc

Indiv

0.2%

22,600

2026-06-30

Ngô Trung Hưng

Indiv

0.1%

15,000

2026-09-17

Board & Management

Bùi Hữu Quỳnh31.7%

Chairman of Management Board

Ngô Thu Hương20.2%

Deputy General Director/Chief Financial Officer/Person in charge of Corporate governace

Trần Văn Hiển2.3%

Vice Chairman of Management Board/Deputy General Director

Lê Văn Quốc2.1%

Member of Management Board/General Director

Nguyễn Đức Chiến0.6%

Head of Internal auditor

Phạm Minh Trí0.6%

Member of Management Board/Deputy General Director

Nguyễn Tiến Đạt0.4%

Deputy General Director

Nguyễn Ngọc Duy0.3%

Chief Accountant

Hoàng Đỗ Minh Trí

Member of Supervisors Board

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: 1 by 1 trader; 45,000 shares
Purchase registrations: 3 by 3 traders; 45,000 shares
Registered net, share of outstanding:: +0.00%

Ngô Thu Hương
Sale · Insider
45,000
2026-09-24
Nguyễn Ngọc Duy
Purchase · Insider
15,000
2026-09-11
Nguyễn Quế An
Purchase · Related person
15,000
2026-09-11
Ngô Trung Hưng
Purchase · Related person
15,000
2026-09-11

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

HEC among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

HEC among Consumer