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DSH

Công ty Cổ phần Đông Sơn Holdings

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuHOSECT
10.600
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+12.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
10.600
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
11.890

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→43.02B
Fair EV/EBITDA→8.6x
Years of data→2
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→10.600
Calibrated value vs last close→+12.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
11.890
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA43.0 tỷyears of data: 2
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·567436494
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·11037122
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·92390
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·310303224
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·1848588
Net Inventories
·4349134
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·4349134
Other current assets
·12813
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2,618260220
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·00.013
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·00.010.01
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·2,5071211
Tangible fixed assets
·2,5061211
Intagible fixed assets
·100
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0248205
Investments in associate companies
·0248205
Other non-current assets
·0.030.050.3
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.0200.3
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·3,185695714
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·2,046465536
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·564380367
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·15312085
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·1768494
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1,48284169
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1,45540
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·1,139231178
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1,139231178
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·350100100
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0.40.40.4
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·33912573
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·3,185695714
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0514
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·003
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·350100100
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·45155

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
38
Weak
Accrual Quality
87
Cash Conversion
41
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.45 · 80th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −0.89
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.526
GMI
1.377
AQI
0.098
SGI
0.671
DEPI
10.000
SGAI
1.775
TATA
0.032
LVGI
1.146

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.2727th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
5.8%71st pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The indicators show several accounting and performance concerns: the Beneish M-Score is -1.4495 (80th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of -0.89, driven by high DSRI (1.5265), GMI (1.3772), DEPI (10.0000) and SGAI (1.7750). Operating-statement and cash metrics are weak — an Altman Z-Score of 0.48 places the company in the distress zone for bankruptcy distance, the Piotroski F-Score is 2/9, and the Earnings Quality composite is 37.8/100 with particularly poor cash conversion (41.4/100) and zero scores for receivables and margin quality.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.4495 (80th percentile among Vietnamese peers): measures likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to peers; the company is more aggressive than most Vietnamese firms while the M-Score has moved by -0.89 year-over-year (the change itself is a separate signal).
  • DSRI = 1.5265: the Days’ Sales in Receivables index above 1 indicates receivables are growing faster than sales, consistent with weakened receivables quality.
  • DEPI = 10.0000: unusually high Depreciation Index implying slowing depreciation expense (DEPI >1 measures a reduction in the rate of depreciation relative to prior period), which raises earnings-quality questions.
  • SGAI = 1.7750: Selling, general & administrative expenses growing faster than sales (SGAI >1), a potential margin pressure or management choice affecting reported profitability.
  • Altman Z-Score = 0.48 (distress zone): measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and earnings items; 0.48 indicates low bankruptcy distance under the Altman model.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 2/9: weak nine-point score of fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency).
  • Earnings Quality 37.8/100 with Receivables quality 0.0/100 and Margin quality 0.0/100: indicates material weakness in how reported earnings map to sustainable cash flows and margins.
  • Cash-conversion (3-year OCF / Net profit) = 0.27 (27th percentile vs VN peers): operating cash is only 27% of reported profits over three years, suggesting profits are not converting to cash.
  • Director-deal registrations: 5 sale registrations (3 traders; 3,500,000 shares; 4 without a volume) and 6 purchase registrations (6 traders; 5,625,000 shares; 1 without a volume) recorded between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality 87.1/100: high accruals-quality score indicates reported accruals are relatively consistent with cash flows, which mitigates some earnings-quality concerns.
  • AQI = 0.0975 and TATA = 0.0324: low total accruals (TATA) and a small discretionary accruals signal (AQI) reduce the immediate evidence of aggressive discretionary accrual manipulation.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 5.8% of total assets (71st percentile): a meaningful but not extreme level of non-trade receivables (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables) relative to peers — shows some concentration but not among the very highest in the sample.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity positive and parent profit not negative in recent years: balance-sheet capital remains positive and statutory loss tests for exchange cancellation are not met (per Decree 155/2020 as amended).
Ownership Risk

Top ownership is moderately concentrated in individuals: Nguyễn Thị Minh Huệ holds 10.0%, followed by state-owned Tổng Công ty 319 Bộ Quốc Phòng at 4.3%; other individuals hold smaller stakes (2.9%, 1.4%, 1.0%). Several director-deal registrations were filed in the past year, which are registered intentions rather than executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the change in trade receivables and notes receivable (line items) in the FY2025 balance sheet to the receivables disclosure or receivables schedule; reconcile any large increases to the related-party or long-term receivables notes.
  • Review the depreciation policy note and the fixed-asset schedule to verify the cause of DEPI = 10.0000 (changes in estimated useful lives, method, or additions/disposals) and quantify the effect on profit.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow (cash-flow statement, line 'cash flows from operating activities') with reported net profit for FY2023–FY2025 to reproduce the 3-year cash-conversion ratio (0.27) and identify major non-cash adjustments.
  • Examine the notes for selling, general & administrative expenses and revenue recognition policies to understand the SGAI = 1.7750 and DSRI = 1.5265 drivers (e.g., promotional timing, extended credit terms, or reclassification).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
0.48
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.13
Negative
Composite
77
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✗No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden−21.91×Op. Margin−0.02×Turnover0.13×Leverage2.80=ROE18.8%
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.8%
Volatility
23.8%
Max Drawdown
−36.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
1.94P/E
P/B
0.60
P/S
0.98
ROE
46.8%
ROA
11.0%
EPS
6.111
BVPS
19.671
Gross Margin
4.2%
Net Margin
50.7%
D/E
1.41
Current Ratio
1.01
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
39.2M
Charter Capital
392B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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