CEN

Công ty Cổ phần CENCON Việt Nam

VietnamConsumerBán lẻUPCOMCT

1.300

VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+26.8%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 1.300
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 1.648

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

Also note

A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 30 Oct 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bán lẻ→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Bán lẻ” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

1.252

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.60%

E/(D+E)

100.00%

Kd(1-t)

0.00%

D/(D+E)

0.00%

WACC

12.60%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→15.92B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→1.300

Calibrated value vs last close→+26.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

1.648

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)12.60%

Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend

Base cash flow15.9 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	1.0%	2.5%	4.0%	5.5%	7.0%
10.6%	1.772	1.772	1.772	1.772	1.772
11.6%	1.772	1.772	1.772	1.772	1.772
12.6%	1.772	1.772	1.772	1.772	1.772
13.6%	1.772	1.772	1.772	1.772	1.772
14.6%	1.772	1.772	1.772	1.772	1.772

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

CEN among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, CEN marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is CEN. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	102	104	100	150	47	60	40	38	11	43
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	20	4	7	14	3	4	0.9	2	3	3
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	6	7	4	16	6	24	34	18	3	40
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	1	3	2	14	0.4	0	9	4	0.08	0
Net Inventories	·	75	92	88	120	38	32	5	17	5	0.2
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	75	92	88	120	38	32	5	17	5	0.2
Other current assets	·	0	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.07	0.3	0.6	0.2	0
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	119	120	121	69	70	3	2	16	10	0
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.05	0	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.05	0	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	0.2	2	2	1.0	1	2	1	1	10	0
Tangible fixed assets	·	0.2	2	2	1.0	1	2	1	1	0.9	0
Intagible fixed assets	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	0
Investment in properties	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	0	0
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	50	50	50	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Investments in associate companies	·	50	50	50	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other non-current assets	·	0	0	0	0.05	0.3	0.7	0.9	0.2	0.1	0
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0.05	0.3	0.7	0.9	0.2	0.1	0
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	220	224	221	219	117	63	42	53	21	43
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	2	5	3	0.5	2	21	24	36	8	40
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	2	5	3	0.5	2	20	24	36	8	40
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	1.0	0	0	0	17	7	3	0	0
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0.8	0	0	0.2	0	0	0	2	0	9
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0.7	0	0	0	0
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	0	0	0	0	0.7	0	0	0	0
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	219	219	219	219	116	42	18	17	14	3
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	219	219	219	219	116	42	18	17	14	3
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	217	217	217	217	114	38	13	13	13	3
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	4	3	3	3	3	4	4	3	0.6	0.02
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	220	224	221	219	117	63	42	53	21	43
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	217	217	217	217	114	38	13	13	13	3
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.5	0	0

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.77 · 25th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▼ −0.46

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.949

GMI

1.121

AQI

1.016

SGI

0.836

DEPI

0.482

SGAI

0.998

TATA

−0.071

LVGI

0.298

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 160.90100th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 0.5%25th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

18.20

Safe Zone

Sharpe

−2.20

Negative

Composite

30 to 49

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.78×Interest Burden1.06×Op. Margin0.00×Turnover0.36×Leverage1.01=ROE0.1%

Price Risk

Momentum

−68.4%

Volatility

83.7%

Max Drawdown

−78.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

122.31P/E

P/B: 0.13
P/S: 0.36
ROE: 0.1%
ROA: 0.1%
EPS: 11
BVPS: 10.082
Gross Margin: 5.4%
Net Margin: 0.3%
D/E: 0.00
Current Ratio: 64.07
Rev Growth: −16.3%
Profit Growth: +1276.3%
EV/EBITDA: 15.27
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 21.7M
Charter Capital: 217B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Bán lẻ
Industry (ICB L3): Bán lẻ
Sub-industry: Bán lẻ phức hợp
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Shareholder structure

Shareholders

Trần Đăng Hải

Indiv

9.6%

2.1M

2026-06-30

Trần Mạnh Sơn

Indiv

5.1%

1.1M

2026-06-30

Công ty TNHH Một Thành viên Duyên Hải Lào Cai

Inst

4.9%

560,000

2022-06-20

Trần Ngọc Sơn

Indiv

4.9%

1.1M

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Thị Lệ

Indiv

4.2%

903,100

2023-10-09

Phạm Xuân Thủy

Indiv

3.7%

810,000

2023-10-02

Nguyễn Xuân Bắc

Indiv

2.0%

442,700

2023-10-09

Board & Management

Trần Mạnh Sơn5.1%

Chairman of Management Board

Trần Ngọc Sơn4.9%

Head of Supervisors Board

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

CEN among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Ownership network

CEN among Consumer