Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 12.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 12.072
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.4%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.1251st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 6.0%72nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
BKC’s Beneish M-Score is -1.1758, which on the US cutoff would not flag manipulation but sits at the 86th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and rose by +3.43 year-over-year; the M-Score components show elevated days-sales/receivables (DSRI = 1.2238) and sales/general admin growth (SGAI = 1.3675) while total accruals (TATA = 0.3400) and asset quality (AQI = 0.9904) are less suggestive. Earnings-quality metrics are weak (Earnings Quality = 6.3/100) driven by near-zero cash conversion and margin quality scores, but solvency and basic fundamentals are reasonable (Altman Z = 5.68 in the ‘safe’ zone; Piotroski F = 5/9).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.1758 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight financial ratios); although the US cutoff is -1.78, the company ranks at the 86th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher percentile indicates more aggressive accounting relative to peers) and the M-Score increased by +3.43 YoY (the direction of change is a secondary cue).
- DSRI = 1.2238 (Days Sales Receivable Index; measures change in receivables relative to sales) — indicates receivables grew faster than sales year over year.
- SGAI = 1.3675 (Sales, General & Admin Index; measures growth in SG&A relative to sales) — SG&A rose disproportionately to sales, which can inflate reported margins if expensing/timing differs.
- DEPI = 1.1774 (Depreciation Index; measures change in depreciation policy or useful lives) — value >1 suggests depreciation decreased relative to prior year (slower depreciation), which can boost reported profit.
- TATA = 0.3400 (Total Accruals to Assets; an accrual-based measure of earnings quality) — positive accruals of 34.0% of assets indicate earnings include a material accrual component rather than cash.
- Earnings Quality Score = 6.3/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100 (measures of how much reported profit converts to cash, and persistence/stability of margins) — indicates current profits are not being converted into operating cash and margins are not robust by the model.
- Altman Z-Score = 5.68 (measures distance to bankruptcy using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity) — places the company in the ‘safe’ zone for bankruptcy risk.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of improving financial health) — indicates neutral fundamentals with some positive and some negative signals.
- AQI = 0.9904 (Asset Quality Index; measures change in non-current assets relative to sales) near 1.00 suggests no large shift toward capitalizing costs or other non-current assets.
- LVGI = 0.8468 (Leverage Index; measures change in leverage) below 1 implies leverage decreased year-over-year, which is a stabilizing signal.
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) are not met — these are facts in the audited statements showing no immediate statutory loss trigger for listing.
Shareholding is concentrated among institutions: Công ty TNHH Tập Đoàn Thiên Mã holds 25.3% and Công ty TNHH Dịch Vụ Anb 17.6%; several individuals hold smaller stakes (largest individual 5.4%). Director-deal activity shows 1 sale registration and 0 purchase registrations in the past year — registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare FY2025 trade receivables and non-trade receivables lines with the related-party receivables and loans schedules in the notes (to investigate DSRI = 1.2238 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 6.0% of assets).
- Reconcile depreciation expense and useful-life disclosures in the fixed-asset note against DEPI = 1.1774 to see whether depreciation policies or useful lives changed year-over-year.
- Compare the cash flow from operations (consolidated) to consolidated net profit in the statement of cash flows and the notes to verify the 3-year cash-conversion ratio = 1.12 and Cash conversion score = 0.0/100.
- Review the SG&A breakdown and related-party service/fee disclosures to assess why SGAI = 1.3675 (whether SG&A growth is operational or related-party driven).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.34
- P/S
- 1.06
- ROE
- 25.1%
- ROA
- 13.8%
- EPS
- 2.868
- BVPS
- 12.875
- Gross Margin
- 25.8%
- Net Margin
- 17.8%
- D/E
- 0.36
- Current Ratio
- 2.16
- Rev Growth
- −9.1%
- Profit Growth
- +75.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.17
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 30.2M
- Charter Capital
- 302B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Khai khoáng
- Sub-industry
- Khai khoáng
- Company Type
- CT