Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 617
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 49.9%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 8.8%78th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.37×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 6Statutory test met
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows mixed forensic signals. The Beneish M-Score is -0.4873 (92nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +3.54) indicating accounting metrics are more aggressive than most VN peers and have moved materially year-on-year; the largest individual component is DSRI = 1.9356 (days-sales receivables rising). Earnings-quality sub-scores are polarized: Accruals quality 100/100 and Cash conversion 100/100, while Receivables, Margin and Revenue quality each score 0/100. The Altman Z-Score is -0.05 (distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.4873 (92nd percentile among Vietnamese peers). The M-Score combines eight ratios to screen for earnings manipulation; a higher percentile vs peers means the company's pattern of ratios is relatively aggressive in the VN universe. The year-over-year change +3.54 shows a notable move in these ratios compared with last year.
- DSRI (Days' Sales Receivables Index) = 1.9356. DSRI > 1 indicates receivables have grown faster than sales, consistent with slower collection or sales recognized earlier than cash collection.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 3.3190. GMI > 1 signals gross margin deterioration (or margin pressure) relative to the prior year, which can pressure management to try to sustain reported earnings by accounting means.
- Receivables quality = 0/100 and Revenue quality = 0/100. These scores indicate very weak signals on the reliability of reported revenue and receivables recognition.
- Altman Z-Score = -0.05 (distress zone). This metric measures distance to bankruptcy; a negative Z-Score is in the distress range, signalling fragile solvency metrics by the Altman model.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 8.1% of total assets (81st percentile among VN non-financials). This line includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is high relative to peers, consistent with the elevated DSRI and the low receivables-quality score.
- Accruals quality = 100/100. This indicates the company's overall accruals pattern (difference between accruals-based and cash earnings) looks clean relative to the scoring model.
- Cash conversion = 100/100. Operating cash flow trends relative to reported profits score very well, suggesting reported profits are supported by cash flow.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = -0.0045. A near-zero TATA indicates small total accruals as a share of assets for the period measured, consistent with the high accruals-quality score.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0565 and DEPI = 1.0000. DEPI = 1.0000 shows no detectable change in depreciation policies in the Beneish inputs; LVGI only modestly above 1 indicates limited upward pressure from leverage in the M-Score construction.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9. This is an overall neutral-to-favourable fundamental score, showing several improving or stable fundamental metrics despite the distress-zone Altman Z-Score.
Ownership is concentrated in individuals: the largest shareholder, Nguyễn Xuân Thanh, holds 9.8%; the next largest is 3.9%; several other individuals hold small stakes. There is no large state or corporate block listed in the provided top-shareholder data; director-deal registrations were not provided in the input (registrations, if any, would be disclosures of intent rather than executed trades).
- Compare the year-over-year change in Trade Receivables and ‘Loans receivable’ / ‘Other long-term receivables’ lines in the consolidated balance sheet and the related-party note to reconcile the DSRI = 1.9356 and the 8.1% of assets flagged as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile reported revenue and revenue-recognition notes (revenue by contract type or by segment) with the cash receipts and the cash-flow-from-operations line to investigate Revenue quality = 0/100 versus Cash conversion = 100/100.
- Review the notes to determine composition of the 'Prepayments to suppliers' and 'Loans receivable' included in the 8.1% figure (identify counterparties, maturities and related-party disclosures).
- Check the depreciation policy note and fixed-asset schedules to confirm DEPI = 1.0000 (no material change in depreciation methods or useful lives) and confirm there were no policy changes that might affect reported margins.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.08
- P/S
- —
- ROE
- −3.0%
- ROA
- −1.8%
- EPS
- −193
- BVPS
- 6.333
- Gross Margin
- 0.0%
- Net Margin
- 0.0%
- D/E
- 0.24
- Current Ratio
- 0.98
- Profit Growth
- +3.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.65
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 51.0M
- Charter Capital
- 510B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Khai khoáng
- Sub-industry
- Khai khoáng
- Company Type
- CT