How we value Securities stocks
Model: Cycle-Adjusted P/B
Securities firms (brokerages) earn in step with market trading volumes, so a single year's multiple can sit at a peak or a trough. This model takes the firm's median price-to-book (P/B) over the last 5 years and averages it 50/50 with the median P/B of peer brokers, adjusted for how this firm's ROE compares with theirs.
Why this model
Brokerage earnings are highly cyclical, tied to market volumes. A single-year P/B snapshot at a market peak would overvalue the firm; at a trough, undervalue it. A multi-year median and a peer anchor steady the reference point.
How it is calculated
Fair P/B = 50% × the firm's own 5-year median P/B + 50% × the peer median P/B × (firm ROE / peer median ROE, held within 0.7× to 1.5×). Peers are brokers the market prices on their earnings (positive ROE, P/B at most 3.0×); with fewer than 4 peers, the firm's own median is used alone. Fair P/B (at least 0.3×) is multiplied by current BVPS.
Best suited to
Brokerage and securities firms whose valuations are dominated by market sentiment and trading volume cycles.